Promoting International Energy Security
Volume 2, Turkey and the Caspian
ResearchPublished Jun 19, 2012
The Caspian region has a wealth of crude oil and natural gas. Turkey aspires to be a key player in transporting oil and gas from the Caspian area to world markets. This hope is challenged by commercial and regional issues, terrorist threats, and the potential for disruption of tanker traffic in the Bosporus. Helping Turkey build its capacity for pipeline security and maritime disaster response is a promising yet modest area for USAF engagement.
With its sizeable crude oil and natural gas reserves, the Caspian region is poised to become an increasingly important energy supplier to global markets. Competition over the development of Caspian's petroleum and largely untapped natural gas reserves and control over future export routes remains intense. Russia is seeking control over export routes for these oil and gas resources for its own commercial and political ends. But Russian influence is being challenged. New oil pipeline routes to China and to the Mediterranean via Turkey are being built. Turkey aspires to become a key transit state for moving both natural gas and oil from the Caspian region and from the broader Middle East via pipelines crossing its territory. U.S.-Turkish cooperation on energy security issues offers a promising yet modest opportunity to strengthen the bilateral relationship. Continued successful attacks on pipelines within Turkey by Kurdish terrorists suggest pipeline security as a potential area of U.S. Air Force engagement. In the Bosporus, U.S. disaster response capabilities and the lessons learned from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico could prove useful for helping Turkish civilian and military leaders plan emergency responses to oil spills and other events that could block this critical waterway.
Key Findings
The Scope for Expanding U.S. Air Force-Led Cooperation with Caspian Energy Producers Is Limited
- USAF relationships with counterparts in the Caspian region and Central Asia are dominated by the need to preserve transit routes to Afghanistan. The countries with oil and natural gas resources need to maintain a delicate balance with the region's leading powers — Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran. As a result, there are inherent limitations to security cooperation with the United States. The focus of any cooperation activities is likely to remain on such activities as border control, maritime security, and emergency response. Azerbaijan is a potential exception, given its desire to deepen security ties with the United States and to lessen the effects of longstanding congressional restrictions on aid.
U.S. Air Force Engagement with Turkey on Energy Security Looks Promising
- Turkey continues to be an important U.S. ally. The U.S. Air Force has established important relationships with its Turkish counterparts through extensive cooperation to deal with Kurdish terrorist threats emanating from Northern Iraq. This track record, coupled with the likely increasing importance of energy security to Turkey's leaders, could create a promising yet modest opportunity to strengthen these relationships. Thus far, military cooperation in energy security has largely consisted of informal talks at the senior leader and staff levels, but these interactions could expand, and the topics could extend beyond pipeline security to include reducing vulnerabilities in the Bosporus and applying lessons learned from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 2012
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 64
- Paperback Price: $21.00
- Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-5890-4
- Document Number: TR-1144/2-AF
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Weiss, Andrew S., F. Stephen Larrabee, James T. Bartis, and Camille A. Sawak, Promoting International Energy Security: Volume 2, Turkey and the Caspian, RAND Corporation, TR-1144/2-AF, 2012. As of September 13, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR1144z2.html
Weiss, Andrew S., F. Stephen Larrabee, James T. Bartis, and Camille A. Sawak, Promoting International Energy Security: Volume 2, Turkey and the Caspian. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2012. https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR1144z2.html. Also available in print form.
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