Cover: The validity of the preference profiles used for evaluating impacts in the Dutch National Risk Assessment

The validity of the preference profiles used for evaluating impacts in the Dutch National Risk Assessment

Published Dec 6, 2012

by Henry H. Willis, Dimitris Potoglou, Wandi Bruine de Bruin, Stijn Hoorens

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The Dutch National Risk Assessment forms part of the wider National Security Strategy introduced in the Netherlands in 2007. The Strategy aims to protect society and civilians within its territory from internal and external threats. Preference profiles within the Dutch National Risk Assessment (NRA) help to describe the sensitivity of concerns about threat scenarios to assumptions about the Dutch public's perceptions of impacts from these scenarios. RAND Europe was asked by the Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Department of External Scientific Affairs, Ministry of Security and Justice, to assess the validity of preference profiles and associated weight sets as currently used in the National Risk Assessment. This document reports on the methods and analysis undertaken to assess the validity of preference profiles and associated weights. It also provides a set of recommendations on how the Ministry of Security and Justice can incorporate public values into the National Risk Assessment, using scientifically validated methods. The report should be of interest to individuals and organizations involved in strategic risk management.

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The research described in this report was prepared for the Dutch Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Department of External Scientific Affairs, Ministry of Security and Justice and conducted by RAND Europe.

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