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The Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM) was originally developed between 1999 and 2002, and informs long term transport planning, policy development and infrastructure assessment across the Greater Sydney area. During 2009 and 2010, the individual demand models that comprise the STM were re-estimated to use more recent survey data, the geographic scope of the model was extended, and additional model components were incorporated to predict demand for toll roads and park-and-ride schemes.

During 2010 and 2011, three parallel projects were undertaken to implement the new models in the STM, and the predictions of the new model implementation for commuting travel were validated in detail. While the validation exercise demonstrated that the overall performance of the new model was good compared to observed travel data, it also identified a number of specific areas that could be improved.

This report describes additional model estimation work that has been undertaken to further improve the commute mode-destination model. The improvements are an extension of the scope of the model to represent separate walk and bus access modes to train, changes to the model specification to predict higher walk usage in high density areas close to the Central Business District, and investigations of the impact of new terms for car driver. Changing the commute mode-destination model necessitated changes to other components of the forecasting system and these changes are documented in the report.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Commute mode–destination model enhancements

  • Chapter Three

    Revised commute frequency model

  • Chapter Four

    Revised total car ownership model

  • Chapter Five

    Updates to the Population Synthesiser

  • Chapter Six

    Travel Demand model updates

  • Chapter Seven

    Summary

  • Appendix A

    Commute mode–destination model parameter values

  • Appendix B

    Detailed TravDem model validation

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Bureau of Transport Statistics, Transport for NSW and conducted by RAND Europe.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. RAND technical reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.