Travel Demand Modelling

RAND Europe has contributed to the development and testing of new approaches in modelling demand for travel for over 25 years. Our work applies discrete choice models using observations of individual travel behaviour.

Our transport models contain substantial detail about traveller behaviour by person and household type. Many of these characteristics strongly influence travel behaviour and are therefore essential when exploring future travel demand. Our models also reflect travel across many modes, for many purposes and reflect many possible behavioural responses, such as changing mode, destination, frequency of time of travel, as well as car ownership.

Related: More on Transport Research

Featured Research

  • Traffic on the streets of London

    Developing a New Transport Demand Model for the London Area

    With rising populations in London leading to higher demand on road and transport networks, Transport for London asked researchers to develop a new strategic travel model for London, which will be used to develop strategic land use and transport policy scenarios to assist with future investment in London’s transport systems.

Selected Research

  • Rush hour on the A38(M) urban motorway at Aston, Birmingham, UK.

    A review of induced travel demand

    28 Nov 2018

    Through an extensive literature review, researchers found evidence that road capacity improvements result in induced travel demand, but most of the evidence came from large metropolitan areas outside the UK. More evidence from local studies would be helpful to ensure induced travel demand is properly accounted for in appraisal of capacity improvements to the UK's Strategic Road Network.

  • A New Transport Model for South East Wales

    18 Sep 2018

    RAND Europe researchers developed models capable of predicting levels of transport demand in South East Wales in response to a range of different policy options and in light of demographic changes.

  • Container ships in a port at sunset

    Improved connectivity would benefit China's BRI

    08 Aug 2018

    Trade routes developed as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aim to promote regional cooperation in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Improving multimodal transport infrastructure and connectivity in the BRI region would likely benefit all partners, and rail improvements would have the greatest impact.

  • H.C. Andersens Boulevard - January Evening in Copenhagen

    Quantifying travellers’ willingness to pay for a tolled tunnel in central Copenhagen

    21 Mar 2018

    Stated choice experiments helped researchers quantify the willingness of car and van travellers to pay to use a proposed new tunnel to cross to and from Amager in central Copenhagen. The results from this study will inform the Danish Road Directorate's proposed new infrastructure.

  • Updating the UK National Car Ownership Model

    22 Dec 2017

    The UK car ownership model was known to over-predict car ownership in dense urban areas, particularly London. In re-estimating the UK's current car ownership models using more recent data, researchers made improvements to the model specifications.

  • Class 395 "Javelin" high-speed train operated by Southeastern, at Ebbsfleet International

    Understanding the Demand for Rail Travel in the UK

    27 Apr 2017

    An analysis of the National Travel Survey allowed researchers to quantify the impact of external socio-economic factors on rail demand. Application of the improved models for forecasting purposes requires the collation of socio-economic and demographic forecast data at an appropriately granular level.

  • An approximate view of the London Commuter Belt showing commuter towns and the main road and rail links into the city. Urban areas in and around London are grey.

    Developing a New National Transport Model for the UK

    15 Mar 2016

    At the request of the Department for Transport, RAND Europe and Atkins are updating the UK's national transport model using current datasets. The project team may also suggest further enhancements to improve the forecasting functionality and/or consistency of the model.

  • Mototransport (bicycle cars) in New Delhi, India

    Exploring the Future of Driving in Developing Countries

    15 Oct 2015

    The level of automobility, or travel in personal vehicles, varies among countries. By determining the factors besides economic development that have affected automobility in developed countries, researchers can predict how automobility might evolve in developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China.