Quantifying the link between COVID-19, conflict risk, and the global economy
While there is a growing consensus that the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected countries' economies and may exacerbate socio-political unrest, understanding the dynamics of this process remains challenging. Our research suggests that COVID-19 will significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in African countries. We estimate this effect will, in turn, have negative global economic repercussions via international trade losses.