RAND 2014 Midterm Election Opinion Study
The RAND Midterm 2014 Election Opinion Study uses the American Life Panel (ALP) to study voting intentions, public opinion, and voter behavior.
The study surveys the same people over time. This allows us to observe true changes in public opinion, rather than changes based on who was surveyed randomly. This approach was extremely effective in forecasting the 2012 U.S. presidential election.
Using the ALP, a scientifically recruited Internet panel, enables RAND to track the evolution of respondents' voting intentions, behavior, and opinions. Furthermore, this research follows previous RAND election polling by asking respondents about their voting intentions in probabilistic terms (percent chance), which improves forecasts.
Blog Posts from the Midterm Election Opinion Study
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The Ebola outbreak in Africa and the cases in the United States weighed heavily on the minds of policymakers and the public. While the Ebola threat was (and is) certainly real, many Americans greatly overestimated their chances of contracting the deadly disease.
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For years, vacations were a time for Americans to reset and renew, a time away from work. But more and more, Americans check their email, take calls, and work while on vacation.
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Survey data provides evidence that the majority of American voters support the legalization of gay marriage and think it should be decided at the federal level. Republicans are substantially less likely to support legalization, and lower income, lower educational attainment, being older, and being non-white are significantly associated with lower levels of support.
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According to new data, 44 percent of American adults wouldn't be comfortable letting their sons play football. Roughly the same percentage was uncomfortable with their sons playing ice hockey.
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Recent survey data suggests competitions for both houses of Congress are too close to call. While reported probability of voting for a given party has remained constant overall, churn in individual responses indicates some voters are changing their minds.
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Significantly more survey respondents anticipate Republicans will take the Senate for their state compared to those who anticipate Democrats will. However, there is not a clear difference in opinion regarding the race for the House.
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Survey responses indicate many U.S. voters already know how they'll cast their ballots in the upcoming midterm elections. But RAND's unique methodology provides an interesting perspective on those who don't lean strongly toward Republican or Democratic candidates.
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Today, Democrats are more than six times likelier than Republicans to believe the U.S. government should play a role in reducing income inequality. This is not due to differences in age, gender, education, or income distributions among the two parties.
In the News
"Democrats Are Having More Trouble Keeping 2012 Voters," New York Times The Upshot Blog, October 9, 2014.
"About the RAND American Life Panel" New York Times The Upshot Blog, October 9, 2014.
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The RAND Midterm Election Panel uses the American Life Panel to study voting intentions, public opinion, and voter behavior. This document describes our methodology.
