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Arms Proliferation and Control

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The U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race ended in détente, but nuclear development efforts and WMD proliferation in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have caused geopolitical instability since the Cold War's end. RAND has applied strategic analysis to nuclear confrontation scenarios and international deterrence efforts since its earliest work on game theory, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global as well as regional security.

Report
How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
The United Nations has imposed increasingly restrictive sanctions on North Korea after each of the six nuclear weapons tests that it conducted between 2009 and 2016. Enforcement has been mixed, and North Korea has become adept at several techniques to evade sanctions.
Sep 23, 2021
Content
Where Russia Markets and Sells Advanced Conventional Weapons
Russia uses arms exports to further relations with other countries, influence their political and military leaders, and further its broader foreign and defense policy goals. A series of maps show the extent of its marketing, negotiating, and sales of key weapons systems.
Jun 11, 2021

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Commentary
Iran's Elections to End All Elections
The June election will not be about mobilizing the Iranian public. It is instead the culmination of a years-long evolution in Iranian politics: the transformation of the Islamic Republic from a mildly representative theocracy into a Revolutionary Guards-controlled kleptocracy, writes Alireza Nader.
Mar 7, 2013
Commentary
North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: A Sign of Weakness, Not Strength
The ROK and the United States should take actions to deter subsequent North Korean provocations while punishing the country for its nuclear weapon test. Such actions could convince it that the ROK/U.S. are serious and able to impose high costs, writes Bruce Bennett.
Feb 15, 2013
Commentary
The Challenge of Securing Russian Cooperation in Achieving Further Nuclear Reductions
Unless the Obama administration can design a strategy that can engage the Russians despite their preconceptions, which have been consistently stated in diplomatic encounters over the past two years, Russia is unlikely to agree to an informal agreement on further reductions, writes Lowell Schwartz.
Feb 13, 2013
Commentary
Khamenei's Mounting Pressures
Khamenei's mounting pressures may compel him to be more flexible on the nuclear program, writes Alireza Nader. Otherwise, he will face greater sanctions, more internal political opposition, and, possibly, the wrath of his own people.
Feb 11, 2013
Q&A
What Is Iran's Strategy at New Talks?
Iran is still willing to give diplomacy a chance after a seven-month hiatus, as demonstrated by the announcement of new talks. But Tehran wants the P5+1 to make the first move, writes Alireza Nader.
Feb 5, 2013
News Release
RAND Stanton Research Fellows Issue New Studies Examining Nuclear Security Issues
Three Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows at the RAND Corporation—Robert Reardon, Markus Schiller, and David Kearn—have published new research examining nuclear security issues.
Oct 2, 2012
Report
Facing the Missile Challenge: U.S. Strategy and the Future of the INF Treaty
Report assesses whether the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty continues to serve America's national interests, or whether adherence unduly constrains the U.S. ability to effectively respond to emerging security threats.
Sep 27, 2012
Commentary
Syria's Chemical Weapons, and Beyond
Every possible effort toward peaceful resolution and proliferation avoidance, even to the extent of offering safe passage and immunity to reprehensible characters in order to buy the safe transfer and control of such materials, is worth consideration, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce W. Bennett.
Jul 26, 2012
Blog
Defusing Iran's Nuclear Threat
As nuclear negotiations with Iran resume, they might produce an agreement on interim steps to limit Iranian enrichment and a temporary hold on some international sanctions.
Jun 14, 2012
Multimedia
How to Defuse Iran's Nuclear Threat: Bolster Diplomacy, Israeli Security, and the Iranian Citizenry
In this June 2012 Congressional Briefing, a panel of RAND experts—Lynn Davis, James Dobbins, and Alireza Nader—discuss nuclear negotiations and the long-term prospects for Iranian relations with Israel and the United States.
Jun 7, 2012
Blog
Examining the Relationship Between China and Iran
The partnership between China and Iran presents challenges to U.S. interests, including dissuading Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability.
May 3, 2012
Report
The Nature of the Chinese-Iranian Partnership and the Challenges It Poses for the U.S.
The partnership between China and Iran presents challenges to U.S. interests, including dissuading Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. An analysis of the factors driving Chinese-Iranian cooperation offers policy options for influencing this partnership to meet U.S. objectives.
May 2, 2012
News Release
Book by Noted Expert Proposes a Renaissance of Thought on Nuclear Deterrence for Today's Strategic Environment
A new book by the late French scholar Thérèse Delpech provides a critical review and update of nuclear deterrence theory, focusing a critical eye on nuclear issues during the Cold War, examining the lessons of past nuclear crises, and outlining ways in which these lessons apply to major nuclear powers and nuclear pretenders today.
Apr 17, 2012
Report
Book by Noted Expert Proposes a Renaissance of Thought on Nuclear Deterrence for Today's Strategic Environment
A new book by the late French scholar Thérèse Delpech provides a critical review and update of nuclear deterrence theory, focusing a critical eye on nuclear issues during the Cold War, examining the lessons of past nuclear crises, and outlining ways in which these lessons apply to major nuclear powers and nuclear pretenders today.
Mar 27, 2012
Commentary
Iran's Self-Destructive Gamble
For all its bluster, the Iranian regime is more vulnerable than at any time in its 32-year history. Internally, Iran is constrained by deep political divisions, civil strife and a woeful economy, write Alireza Nader and James Dobbins.
Jan 6, 2012
News Release
Growing Rivalry Between Israel and Iran Poses Danger of Military Conflict
The United States should engage in activities that increase understanding about how a deterrence relationship between Israel and Iran may evolve, and encourage direct communication between Israelis and Iranians through informal diplomatic channels.
Jan 4, 2012
Report
Growing Rivalry Between Israel and Iran Poses Danger of Military Conflict
The United States should engage in activities that increase understanding about how a deterrence relationship between Israel and Iran may evolve, and encourage direct communication between Israelis and Iranians through informal diplomatic channels.
Jan 4, 2012
Commentary
Dissuading Iran from the Bomb and Avoiding War
By refusing to face more squarely the probability that Iran will eventually acquire a nuclear weapons capability, the American and Israeli governments actually reduce their ability to dissuade Iran from crossing that threshold, writes James Dobbins.
Dec 2, 2011
News Release
U.S. Should Reexamine Policy Options for Dealing with an Iran on the Nuclear Threshold
An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States or Israel would make it more, not less difficult to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. The sympathy aroused for Iran would make containment of Iranian influence much more difficult for Israel, for the U.S., and for the Arab regimes currently allied with Washington.
Nov 28, 2011
Report
U.S. Should Reexamine Policy Options for Dealing with an Iran on the Nuclear Threshold
An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States or Israel would make it more, not less difficult to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. The sympathy aroused for Iran would make containment of Iranian influence much more difficult for Israel, for the U.S., and for the Arab regimes currently allied with Washington.
Nov 28, 2011

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RAND Topic:
Arms Proliferation and Control

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Naoko Aoki

Associate Political Scientist

Naoko Aoki is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation. She specializes in East Asian security issues. She has written about Japanese foreign and security policies, the North Korean nuclear problem, American alliances in Asia, and nuclear dynamics in the region. Prior to joining…
John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…

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