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Arms Proliferation and Control

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The U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race ended in détente, but nuclear development efforts and WMD proliferation in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have caused geopolitical instability since the Cold War's end. RAND has applied strategic analysis to nuclear confrontation scenarios and international deterrence efforts since its earliest work on game theory, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global as well as regional security.

Report
How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
The United Nations has imposed increasingly restrictive sanctions on North Korea after each of the six nuclear weapons tests that it conducted between 2009 and 2016. Enforcement has been mixed, and North Korea has become adept at several techniques to evade sanctions.
Sep 23, 2021
Content
Where Russia Markets and Sells Advanced Conventional Weapons
Russia uses arms exports to further relations with other countries, influence their political and military leaders, and further its broader foreign and defense policy goals. A series of maps show the extent of its marketing, negotiating, and sales of key weapons systems.
Jun 11, 2021

Explore Arms Proliferation and Control

Commentary
Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the reliability of the U.S. arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to others to conduct nuclear tests.
Jun 11, 2020
Commentary
North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization
Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?
May 8, 2020
Research Brief
Reimagining Conventional Arms Control
For much of the past 30 years, conventional arms control (CAC) has played a historic role in ensuring the security of Europe. But today, the CAC regime is outdated and mostly irrelevant. New approaches to CAC are needed to address the challenges posed by the current security environment.
Apr 29, 2020
Report
Conventional Arms Control in Europe Needs a New Approach
Conventional arms control (CAC) was a crucial element of the negotiations that ended the Cold War peacefully. Today, however, the CAC regime is outdated and largely irrelevant. What new CAC measures could lower the risk of conflict in Europe?
Apr 27, 2020
Commentary
The Coronavirus and North Korea: Is There a Cure for Kim's Nuclear Blackmail?
Despite the pandemic, North Korea's recent activities suggest that Kim Jong Un will likely stay the course in his ongoing campaign against the United States and the broader Northeast Asia region.
Apr 13, 2020
Commentary
New START Is Not NAFTA
The 2010 New START Treaty with Russia reduces long-range nuclear arms. President Trump may seek a different deal, however, as he did in renegotiating NAFTA. But NAFTA talks succeeded because America had predominant leverage and because Canada and Mexico are friends. Neither holds true with Russia.
Apr 8, 2020
Commentary
Maximizing Bargaining Leverage with Beijing: Developing Missiles as Bargaining Chips
Arms negotiations may offer the only way to reduce the grave threat posed to the United States and allied security by China's missiles. U.S. owned and operated missiles could provide the best bargaining chips.
Apr 3, 2020
Commentary
The Military Case for Extending New START
The most prudent course of action would be for Washington to extend the U.S.-Russia New START agreement before it expires in February 2021. This would constrain Russia's nuclear forces covered by the treaty for five more years. And it would buy time to pursue multilateral negotiations that also include China.
Feb 14, 2020
Commentary
North Korea: Selling Political Deception
Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.
Jan 3, 2020
Commentary
Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'
North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.
Dec 24, 2019
Commentary
North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations
North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.
Dec 20, 2019
Commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
Jul 15, 2019
Commentary
How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations
The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.
Jul 2, 2019
Commentary
A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.
Jun 20, 2019
Commentary
One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes
After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.
Jun 17, 2019
Commentary
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Risks
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
Jun 5, 2019
Tool
DPRK Sanctions: Countering DPRK Proliferation Activities
This tool provides an understanding of sanctions regimes currently in force against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Apr 29, 2019
Testimony
What the Demise of the INF Could Mean for Russia-China Relations
The U.S.-Russia impasse and effective collapse in recent months of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) will likely affect Russia-China relations. The impact will depend on future U.S. and Russian decisions about INF missiles and on the broader dynamics in great-power relations.
Apr 10, 2019
Commentary
Where Do U.S.–North Korea Relations Go After the Hanoi Summit?
If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.
Mar 13, 2019
Commentary
After the Hanoi Summit
The best-case scenario for future U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst case, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.
Mar 13, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Arms Proliferation and Control

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

King Mallory

Director, RAND Center for Global Risk and Security

King Mallory is the director of the Center for Global Risk and Security at the RAND Corporation. He is a former CEO with substantial diplomatic, research, strategic planning, and execution experience. Previously, he was national security policy coordinator for the presidential campaign of Ohio…
Patrick S. Roberts

Senior Political Scientist

Patrick S. Roberts is a senior political scientist at RAND with a focus on public management and governance processes, and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He has substantive expertise in homeland security, intelligence and national security, cybersecurity,…

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