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Arms Proliferation and Control

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The U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race ended in détente, but nuclear development efforts and WMD proliferation in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have caused geopolitical instability since the Cold War's end. RAND has applied strategic analysis to nuclear confrontation scenarios and international deterrence efforts since its earliest work on game theory, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global as well as regional security.

Report
How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
The United Nations has imposed increasingly restrictive sanctions on North Korea after each of the six nuclear weapons tests that it conducted between 2009 and 2016. Enforcement has been mixed, and North Korea has become adept at several techniques to evade sanctions.
Sep 23, 2021
Content
Where Russia Markets and Sells Advanced Conventional Weapons
Russia uses arms exports to further relations with other countries, influence their political and military leaders, and further its broader foreign and defense policy goals. A series of maps show the extent of its marketing, negotiating, and sales of key weapons systems.
Jun 11, 2021

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Commentary
Congress Should Delay New Iran Sanctions
The new Congress is racing to pass legislation that would institute new sanctions on Iran during ongoing nuclear negotiations. This undermines U.S. efforts to peacefully eliminate the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
Jan 23, 2015
Commentary
An Iran Nuclear Deal Is Still Possible, and Here's Why
The United States and other world powers returned to the negotiating table this week to try to finalize a nuclear agreement with Iran after announcing a seven-month extension in late November. How did the parties get this far?
Dec 19, 2014
Multimedia
Congressional Options and Their Likely Consequences for a Nuclear Deal with Iran
In this December 2014 Congressional Briefing, Larry Hanauer identifies and assesses eight potential courses of action that Congress could take that might either facilitate, hinder, or block implementation of a nuclear deal with Iran.
Dec 16, 2014
Multimedia
Days After A Deal: Looking Forward
In this video, RAND researchers Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, and Lynn Davis discuss how reaching a deal might change Iran's policies in the region and toward the United States, how Iran's neighbors would respond to a deal, and what effect a nuclear deal might have on U.S. policy in the region.
Dec 15, 2014
Commentary
A Nuclear Extension Can Still Work, but Iran Must Show Flexibility
The extension of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 is disappointing, but it's better than the alternatives. Now it's time for the Iranian government to show greater flexibility. It may have gained a few months, but in the long run, time is not on its side.
Nov 26, 2014
Multimedia
Iran Nuclear Negotiations Extended: Reactions and Implications
RAND researchers Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye, and Jeffrey Martini discuss November's extension to nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. Moderated by Lynn Davis, director of RAND's Washington Office, these experts cover reactions from and implications for Iran, Israel, and the wider region
Nov 25, 2014
Commentary
Celebrating the Success of Project Sapphire
Twenty years ago this week, the United States transported over 600 kilograms of at-risk, weapons-usable highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Kazakhstan to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, for safekeeping. Kazakhstan had the courage to trust its new relationship with the U.S. to help prevent the proliferation of dangerous material to countries that might seek to build nuclear weapons.
Nov 21, 2014
Commentary
N.K. WMDs Carry Catastrophic Potential
The failure of the United States and South Korea to prevent North Korea from gaining significant quantities of weapons of mass destruction saddles those governments with serious military responsibilities, should North Korea go to war or should its government collapse.
Nov 19, 2014
Commentary
Ignore Flap Over Obama Letter
While it is not surprising that the alleged letter from President Obama to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has upset domestic critics of the nuclear negotiations, the alleged correspondence has also unsettled Israel and Saudi Arabia, which fear a “bad” deal with Iran and even secret collusion between Washington and Tehran. But such concerns seem unfounded.
Nov 14, 2014
Commentary
Not to Worry, Israel
Some Israelis worry that America's fight against the Islamic State is distracting from the Iranian nuclear challenge. But the idea that the U.S. would make additional concessions to Iran in the nuclear negotiations because of the anti-Islamic State group effort is not based on realities on the ground.
Oct 23, 2014
Report
Cruise Missile Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Cruise Missile Defenses
An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to cruise missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Oct 20, 2014
Commentary
Why Iran Can't Walk Away from Nuclear Talks So Easily
If the public inflexibility of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif isn't mere diplomatic posturing, they would be gambling not only with their own political futures, but the futures of 80 million Iranians as well.
Sep 26, 2014
News Release
Pentagon Should Elevate the Importance of Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction in Operational Planning
Although the United States military has determined countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to be a strategic priority, policymakers have invested too little in the forces and capabilities needed to eliminate vulnerable arsenals.
Sep 24, 2014
Research Brief
Closing the Strategy-Policy Gap in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction
Two presidents have declared counterproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) a top national priority, but it has not been budgeted or resourced as such. This brief summarizes ground force capacities and capabilities needed to eliminate WMD.
Sep 24, 2014
Report
Pentagon Should Elevate the Importance of Eliminating WMDs in Operational Planning
Joint force commanders should carefully consider requirements for eliminating weapons of mass destruction in their contingency and operational planning. And DoD policy decisions involving Army force structure should consider the conventional ground force requirements of such operations.
Sep 24, 2014
Commentary
Nuclear Deal or No Deal, Don't Expect Iran Changes
The impeachment of Iranian science minister Faraji-Dana, the latest in the struggle between Iran's so-called moderates and hard-liners, is likely a sign of troubling times ahead. Rouhani is the West's best hope of the nuclear issue being addressed, but a deal could energize his rivals in their bid to stave off change.
Sep 8, 2014
Blog
Summer Reading for Congress
No matter how policymakers spend their break—meeting with home-state constituents, traveling abroad with congressional delegations, or spending time with family—this summer reading list contains policy ideas that can help them hit the ground running when they return.
Jul 31, 2014
Commentary
Gaza and the Nuclear Negotiations
Whether a deal materializes that meets Iranian demands for a civilian nuclear program, but is limited enough to satisfy the U.S. and its partners remains to be seen. But the longer the Gaza conflict continues, the harder it'll be to insulate the negotiations from broader regional trends.
Jul 28, 2014
Commentary
Can U.S. and Iran Work Together in Iraq?
The presence of Iranian and American troops in Iraq may necessitate clear and direct communications between the two sides, at least to prevent misunderstanding and greater chaos. But Washington should tread carefully and focus on nuclear negotiations for now.
Jul 3, 2014
Commentary
The Fallacy of Iranian Leverage
Rather than helping Iran in the nuclear negotiations, Iran's battle against the ISIS could actually hurt it. The broader strategic dynamics were already working against Iran, and the situation in Iraq has only made that more true.
Jun 27, 2014

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RAND Topic:
Arms Proliferation and Control

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Naoko Aoki

Associate Political Scientist

Naoko Aoki is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation. She specializes in East Asian security issues. She has written about Japanese foreign and security policies, the North Korean nuclear problem, American alliances in Asia, and nuclear dynamics in the region. Prior to joining…
John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…

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