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Asymmetric Warfare

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The 9/11 terrorist attacks and the war in Afghanistan are among the best-known recent examples of asymmetric warfare: conflicts between nations or groups that have disparate military capabilities and strategies. RAND investigates political and military responses to — and the impacts of — counterinsurgency, terrorism, and other forms of irregular warfare.

Research Brief

What Will the Future of Warfare Look Like?

May 11, 2020

Poor predictions about wars stem from failing to think holistically about the factors that drive changes in the global environment and their implications for warfare. Geopolitical, economic, military, space, nuclear, cyber, and other trends will shape the contours of conflict through 2030.
Report

Why America Fails in Irregular Warfare

Jul 29, 2020

A memoir drawn from four decades of experience in the U.S. Army explores the strengths and limitations of America's irregular warfare capability. The author, who often saw success at the tactical level only to be followed by strategic muddling and eventual failure, offers ideas on how to develop a world-class way of irregular war.

Explore Asymmetric Warfare

Report

Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

Jun 15, 2021
Report

Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States

The United States can effectively support governance reforms in postconflict states by seizing on opportunities when partner interests align with U.S. interests. And it can use its leverage, including conditions on military and economic assistance, when interests do not align.

Jun 15, 2021
Journal Article

The Missing, Irregular Half of Great Power Competition

The U.S. military must learn to embrace a new framework for understanding competition through the lens of its current approaches to traditional and irregular warfare.

Apr 30, 2021
Commentary

Stabilizing China-India Relations in 2021: Is This Possible?

China-India relations seem to be at their lowest point in decades. The Ladakh confrontation is fraught with the risk of escalation. But both countries have much to gain from a compromise. Leadership on both sides could help by focusing on the long-term gains in a spirit of give-and-take.

Feb 2, 2021
Q&A

The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen

What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030.

Sep 8, 2020
Report

The Future of Warfare Boxed Set

This series of reports examines the key geopolitical, economic, environmental, geographic, legal, informational, and military trends that will shape the contours of conflict between now and 2030.

Aug 26, 2020
Blog

China in 2050, Using Mobile Tools to Track COVID-19, Telemedicine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the future of U.S.-China competition, privacy concerns surrounding mobile tools used to track COVID-19, how telemedicine can help patients access specialized care, and more.

Jul 31, 2020
Commentary

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?

Jun 2, 2020
Report

The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions

This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.

May 11, 2020
Report

Military Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force

This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines significant factors shaping military trends over the next 10–15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries.

May 11, 2020
Report

Restraint and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force

This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines trends in factors affecting the use of restraint in warfare that could affect U.S. national security, notably effectiveness of false accusations and public concern for civilian casualties.

May 11, 2020
Commentary

The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory

Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.

Jan 22, 2020
Commentary

Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence

Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.

Jan 17, 2020
Commentary

How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?

Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.

Jan 7, 2020
Commentary

Bad Idea: Assuming the Small Wars Era Is Over

The national security community doesn't need to deny the potential for future great power conflict—or neglect to prepare for it—in order to acknowledge the enduring reality of asymmetric threats. Containing, resolving, and even preventing smaller conflicts is essential to avoiding bigger ones.

Dec 18, 2019
Commentary

AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution

How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?

Oct 31, 2019
Commentary

Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea: How NATO Can Up Its Game

The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. In March 2019, RAND brought together a group of experts to discuss Moscow's strategy there—and what Western countries can do to counter it.

Sep 24, 2019
Report

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Strategy: Regional Perspectives from a 2019 Workshop

The authors report workshop discussions of four topics related to the strategic context in the Black Sea: Russia's strategy in the region; Russian military and soft-power instruments; Western goals and interests; and elements of Western strategy.

Sep 24, 2019

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Asymmetric Warfare

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