China

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RAND's China experts have examined a wide range of issues, including the country's military, political, and trade relations, especially with Taiwan and Japan; its environmental, economic, and health policies and prospects; and its international business and intellectual property (copyright) challenges.

  • An F/A-18 Super Hornet lands on the deck of the USS Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea, September 30, 2017

    Report

    Risk of U.S.-China Conflict Should Not Be Ignored or Exaggerated

    Oct 2, 2017

    Armed conflict between the United States and China isn't likely. But the possibility is real enough to warrant prudent policies and effective deterrence. America should continue to support China's neighbors while drawing Beijing into cooperative security endeavors.

  • Composite of Chinese flag and abstract globalization concept

    Report

    How China Seeks to Wage Modern Warfare

    Feb 1, 2018

    The People's Liberation Army's approach to training, organizing, and equipping for modern warfare over the past two decades has been influenced by systems thinking. It now characterizes modern warfare as a confrontation between opposing operational systems rather than merely opposing armies.

Explore China

  • Chinese boats fish at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, April 5, 2017

    Commentary

    The Potential of the Quadrilateral

    The countries of the Quadrilateral Security Framework are the region's four most capable maritime powers, and are naturally concerned with China's assault on international rules and norms. If ever put in place, the Quad could contribute to the maintenance of security and order in the Indo-Pacific maritime commons.

    Feb 22, 2018

  • Vietnamese military members march during an honor guard ceremony at the Ministry of Defense in Hanoi, Vietnam

    Journal Article

    Can Vietnam's Military Stand Up to China in the South China Sea?

    This article examines Vietnam's warfighting capabilities for defending its disputed claims with China in the South China Sea.

    Feb 22, 2018

  • Soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army get ready for the military parade to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the foundation of the army at Zhurihe military training base in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, July 30, 2017

    Testimony

    U.S. Responses to PLA Modernization

    In responding to the PLA's modernization, U.S. decisionmakers should consider two key facts. First, China recognizes a major war with America would likely destroy its national development objectives. Second, most of the PLA's modernization corresponds to capabilities the United States has already attained.

    Feb 15, 2018

  • Soldiers carry a PLA flag and Chinese national flags before the military parade to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the foundation of China's PLA at Zhurihe military base in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, July 30, 2017

    Testimony

    Addressing PLA Rocket Force Modernization

    China's growing missile capabilities could pose serious challenges for the United States and its allies. To protect its regional security interests, the United States should continue to monitor the PLA's modernization and adapt its own deterrence capabilities.

    Feb 15, 2018

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with scientists, representing the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in Novosibirsk, Russia February 8, 2018

    Commentary

    Free Lunches for Adversaries

    When leaders take actions that are unpopular with wide audiences, propagandists have it easy. While Western leaders should not make propaganda potential the primary factor when weighing policy decisions, neither should they wholly disregard the opportunities that unpopular policies will offer adversaries.

    Feb 13, 2018

  • A Chinese military band conductor prepares to perform before the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing March 5, 2007

    Commentary

    China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights

    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) views modern conflict as a confrontation between opposing systems. This systems-thinking has wide ranging implications for how the PLA conceptualizes warfare in the twenty-first century.

    Feb 12, 2018

  • North Korean cheerleaders await the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, Pyeongchang, South Korea, February 9, 2018

    Commentary

    Countering North Korea's Political Warfare

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has outmaneuvered South Korean President Moon Jae-in in the month leading up to the Olympics. This has dangerous consequences for South Korea's security, democracy, and its alliance with the United States.

    Feb 11, 2018

  • U.S. and Chinese officials meet prior to the U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue in Washington, D.C., June 21, 2017

    Commentary

    The Competition for Status Could Increase the Risk of a Military Clash in Asia

    The prospect of conflict involving China remains remote, and Beijing remains committed to peaceful development. But if Beijing ever concludes that the United States and its allies have successfully stymied its aspirations, China may be tempted by riskier methods to assert its status.

    Feb 2, 2018

  • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen arrives at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, April 27, 2017

    Commentary

    Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long

    Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.

    Jan 24, 2018

  • South Korea's President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a news conference in Seoul, November 7, 2017

    Commentary

    South Korea Picking the Wrong Fight

    Washington may need to encourage Seoul to find ways to cooperate with Tokyo in confronting threats from the region's revisionist actors, rather than picking fights with Japan.

    Jan 7, 2018

  • Rates of currencies are displayed at a currency exchange in Warsaw, Poland, on June 24, 2016, the day after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union

    Commentary

    Why Political Risks May Dampen World Economies in 2018

    The world economy has reached its strongest point since the global financial crisis a decade ago. But rising political risks may cloud prospects in 2018 and perhaps beyond.

    Jan 7, 2018

  • China's President Xi Jinping speaks at the opening ceremony of the "CPC in dialogue with world political parties" high-level meeting, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, December 1, 2017

    Commentary

    China's Endgame: The Path Towards Global Leadership

    The coming years are likely to see a deepening contest between the U.S. and China in the diplomatic, economic, cyber, and information domains, even as the risks of major war remain low. In its 19th CCP Congress report, Beijing articulated for the first time an ambition to contend for global leadership.

    Jan 5, 2018

  • Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (center) is welcomed by European Council President Donald Tusk (left) and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at a European Union-Japan summit, Brussels, Belgium, July 6, 2017

    Commentary

    Economic Multilateralism and Regionalism

    The trend toward economic multilateralism and regionalism is accelerating. Japan finalized a free-trade agreement with the EU that will encompass some 600 million people and 30 percent of GWP. The U.S. has benefited from bilateral agreements, but would do well to revisit its posture toward multilateral and regional currents.

    Jan 5, 2018

  • U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks with Chinese Deputy Ambassador Wu Haitao ahead of the United Nations Security Council session on imposing new sanctions on North Korea, in New York, December 22, 2017

    Commentary

    China's Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea

    It's fair to question whether Beijing intends to fully enforce sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime because such actions tend to undermine China's approach in North Korea. Beijing likely seeks to prevent the collapse of the North Korean regime to ensure that neither a spillover of refugees nor a reunified pro-U.S. Korea emerges on its doorstep.

    Jan 4, 2018

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping meet business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017

    Commentary

    America's New Security Strategy Reflects the Intensifying Strategic Competition with China

    The United States unveiled its National Security Strategy last week, describing China as a revisionist power that actively competes against the United States and its allies and partners. China had strong words of its own in response. Both will need to navigate the relationship in a way that supports stability and prosperity for both countries.

    Dec 27, 2017

  • Journal Article

    Life Satisfaction in China and Consumption and Income Inequalities

    This paper uses CFPS nationally representative data to study how economic resources and inequalities are associated with subjective well-being of Chinese residents.

    Dec 19, 2017

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers his speech during the opening session of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China October 18, 2017

    Commentary

    Xi's Consolidation of Power at the 19th Party Congress: Implications for PLA Aerospace Forces

    Xi Jinping has emerged from the 19th Party Congress stronger than at least his past two predecessors. He solidified his grip on power and revealed significant changes to the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.

    Dec 11, 2017

  • Report

    People's Liberation Army Air Force Operations over Water: Maintaining Relevance in China's Changing Security Environment

    The report assesses notable developments in and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities, focusing particularly on the People's Liberation Army Air Force's operations over water.

    Dec 6, 2017

  • Multimedia

    Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy

    Drawing from his expertise and war-game experience, David Ochmanek provides recommendations to inform a future national defense strategy. He explains that while U.S. forces are currently misaligned with challenges from the country's greatest adversaries, including China and Russia, gaps can be overcome with investments in existing technology to protect our forward bases; reach into contested areas; and identify, track, and engage enemy forces.

    Nov 30, 2017