The U.S. national security system faces a range of management challenges. A leaner, more focused national security decisionmaking system can help the United States succeed in a period of tumultuous change.
The Department of Homeland Security manages a diverse set of risks: terrorism, natural disasters, and major accidents. It is committed to using risk assessment to inform decisions and priorities. But assessing homeland security risks is challenging, in part due to the nature of the risks.
Counter-terrorism technologies and diverse partnerships are essential when dealing with terrorist threats in cities. The TACTICS project team has developed a technology-ready concept that could support counter-terrorism operations across Europe.
Lloyd S. Shapley, a longtime RAND Corporation researcher and UCLA professor who was a leading expert in the study of strategic decisionmaking called “game theory,” sharing the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on the subject, died Saturday.
Explores new methods to the study of international technological change and climate policy providing useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation.
Reinvigorating wargaming in the defense community offers great potential value given the complex strategic situation that the U.S. faces today. DoD should educate sponsors and consumers about the appropriate use of wargames, set realistic expectations, and build the right amount of risk acceptance into its gaming enterprise.
Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis, but scenario developers and users typically capture only a subset of future uncertainties. By adopting three focal points as part of this methodology, researchers can expand uncertainty consideration and gather user-specific insights.
Part of thwarting terrorist attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with diverse means. These observations provide data that are often both complex and “soft.” How can analysts combine these data to form a realistic threat assessment?
Defense planning needs a new approach to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures. RDM is designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, and as shown in an application to the munitions mix challenge, could prove quite useful.
Some famous historical wargames offer a compelling narrative of what wargames can be at their best and worst, but they cannot illustrate the full range of contemporary wargaming that leaders should strive to achieve. A better understanding of how wargames can be helpful — or backfire — is critical.
An assessment of 2015 achievements shows how well RAND carried out its mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Success stories include studies on correctional education, sexual assault in the military, and the Affordable Care Act.
The framework for the Paris negotiations is in sync with what science tells us about how to make effective public policy decisions. This alone makes them historic and may provide a model for both local and global action on more than climate alone.
Counterterrorism technologies and diverse partnerships are essential when dealing with terrorist threats in urban areas. The TACTICS project team, commissioned in light of the increased threat of terrorism in European cities, has developed a technology-ready concept that could support counterterrorism operations across Europe.
Water resource agencies around the world are grappling with how to make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability at a time of unprecedented water stress, growing demands, uncertain climate change, and limited budgets.
This paper argues that new approaches exist that can help reduce the tension between the benefits of providing useful, scientifically based information to decision makers and the costs of aggregating uncertainty and differing values into single best estimates.
This study introduces a new open source software framework to support bottom-up environmental systems planning under deep uncertainty with a focus on many-objective robust decision making (MORDM), called OpenMORDM.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, along with state and local partners, develops and implements water quality plans. But uncertainty about the impacts of climate change and other factors may make it harder to meet water quality goals. Robust Decision Making can help better manage this uncertainty.