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Decisionmaking

Journal Article

Robust Decision Making and Scenario Discovery in the Absence of Formal Models

Robust decisionmaking (RDM) is a method for aiding decision making under deep uncertainty that uses models not as predictors but as generators of cases exploring assumptions and outcomes.

Apr 21, 2020
Commentary

The Great Reset: Policing in 2030

Scenarios of possible futures can help planners envision what the future could be, and plan ways to optimize opportunities or mitigate damage. Trends regarding retail operations, hotels, tax revenues, fines and forfeitures, and autonomous vehicles are all happening today. We've imagined how they might extend into the future.

Apr 20, 2020
Commentary

COVID-19: The Questions Ahead for Future Travel and Transport

COVID-19 could have lasting effects on future travel patterns. Future scenarios, a method for visualizing different possible futures, can help inform decisions in deeply uncertain situations and can be used to think about policies that are important for people's quality of life regardless of how the future unfolds.

Apr 15, 2020
Journal Article

Defining the Solution Space to Accelerate Climate Change Adaptation

Better understanding of the solution space for climate change adaptation, and identifying ways to influence this space, is critical for informing policy making globally to accelerate adaptation action.

Mar 24, 2020
Journal Article

Does Shared Decision Making Actually Occur in the Emergency Department? Looking at It from the Patients' Perspective

Utilizing a cross-sectional, multisite approach, we administered an instrument, consisting of two validated shared decisionmaking assessment tools and one newly developed tool to a sample of emergency department patients.

Mar 19, 2020
Report

How Is the Global Competition of Ideas Changing?

The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. An analysis of the policy and actions of China, Russia, and nonstate actors suggests what this competition might look like in the future and how U.S. policy should be adapted accordingly.

Mar 12, 2020
Brochure

A focus on gaming for research

Serious games can be used to explore a variety of policy issues, from defence and national security, to disaster response and health policy. A focus on gaming highlights RAND Europe's expertise in applying this method to different policy questions.

Feb 26, 2020
Journal Article

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

Feb 11, 2020
Journal Article

Could AI Drive Transformative Social Progress? What Would This Require?

This paper explores various strategies and business models for developing and deploying artificial intelligence-enabled products.

Feb 4, 2020
Brochure

RAND's Impact: Year in Review 2019

RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world. This Year in Review reflects on RAND's achievements in 2019.

Jan 20, 2020
Commentary

How the 'Ostrich Europe' Scenario Could Help Guide EU Education Policy

A future scenarios approach can help identify different ways in which the future may plausibly unfold. Seeing how policies implemented now play out in the different scenarios can show us what the possible implications of policy decisions could be. This in turn can contribute to evidence-based policy making.

Jan 13, 2020
Report

Implementing a New Mobility Vision for Rancho Higuera in a Deeply Uncertain, Fast-Changing World: Results from RAND Corporation Participatory Local Planning Workshops

Culver City seeks to reimagine mobility, shifting from cars to other transit modes. A RAND team helped the city develop an implementation plan using decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods embedded in a participatory "shadow" process.

Jan 3, 2020
Commentary

A Climate Scientist's Brush with Wildfire

RAND researcher Robert Lempert was evacuated from the path of a wildfire. This experience emphasized for him the challenges of adapting to climate change, not merely because it is hard, but because it makes the familiar become unfamiliar in unexpected ways.

Dec 18, 2019
Journal Article

Culture and Cognition: Understanding Public Perceptions of Risk and (In)Action

This model demonstrates how cognitive structure, cultural schema, and environment awareness could be combined to improve risk communication. Case studies: one on decision makers facing extreme heat, and another on homeowners facing flood events.

Dec 12, 2019
Report

Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

RAND Project AIR FORCE examines analytical methods for Air Force capability development planning under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Dec 11, 2019
Journal Article

Understanding U.S. Health Systems: Using Mixed Methods to Unpack Organizational Complexity

Researchers need qualitative data to understand how health systems actually work and influence clinical practice.

Nov 26, 2019
Commentary

Did No One Audit the Apple Card Algorithm?

Complex, opaque technologies like artificial intelligence provide significant benefits to society. But those benefits don't eliminate the need for accountability and transparency.

Nov 21, 2019
Commentary

How Voters Can Assess New Climate Plans

While the U.S. government has announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, most presidential candidates and many states have proposed climate plans of their own. How might voters determine if any of these plans can seriously address climate change?

Nov 14, 2019
Journal Article

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Climate Change and Infrastructure Management

This chapter very briefly addresses issues and approaches to decision making on adaptation to climate change.

Nov 12, 2019
Report

Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria

Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war began in 2015. This decision was the result of an extraordinary set of political and military circumstances. What might cause Moscow to take similar actions in other conflicts beyond its immediate neighborhood?

Oct 31, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making