RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world.
This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.
Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.
ViMM helps identify gaps between the values used by the public and experts to understand risk factors and strategies. This study suggests a framework to construct a more explicit model of the public's and CRM experts' and climate scientists' values.
This TI gathers recent methodological innovations in quantitative techniques to push the frontiers of scenarios capabilities and demonstrates how they can address the dual challenge posed by the context of (deep) uncertainty and complexity.
Research that tries to distinguish ratio bias, implying greater perceived likelihood with gambles involving larger versus smaller numbers, from unsystematic error, which results from not seeing the equivalence of the presentations more generally.
Behavioral decision research has traditionally examined how experimental manipulations evoke general cognitive processes; however, it is both feasible and valuable to study individual differences and their relationships to real-world antecedents, concomitants, and consequences.
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more prevalent in the domains of security and employment, what are the policy implications? What effects might AI have on cybersecurity, criminal and civil justice, and labor market patterns?
Leaders in business, government, academia, and philanthropy gathered at RAND's headquarters in Santa Monica to pay tribute to the seven-decade relationship between RAND and the U.S. Air Force. Panelists discussed the importance of trusted advice to inform national security descisonmaking.
Artificial intelligence seems to be advancing faster than efforts to understand its potential consequences, good and bad. And discussions about AI often veer toward extremes. More balanced, rigorous analysis is needed to help shape policies that mitigate AI's risks and maximize its benefits.
Figuring out what the future may look like—and what concepts and technology we should invest in now to prepare—is hard. How can the wargaming community build a cycle of research to help understand what these paths might be?
This study suggests initial ideas for managing climate uncertainty in conservation planning. Differences with previous RDM applications include focus on finer scale geography and significantly more uncertainty in the system (species response) model.
Before a storm hits, officials must decide whether to evacuate the public or advise them to shelter in place. Other, more targeted choices — such as sheltering in safer locations within a city — could be available if an analytic basis for making such judgments were fully developed.
Federal policymakers have picked up on the concept of red teaming — actively seeking out one's own vulnerabilities. While red teaming may not make sense for climate science, it does offer great benefits when weighing climate policy options.