Decisionmaking

  • Members of the 183d Air Operations Group conduct simulated battle operations during exercise Virtual Flag, December 2015

    Commentary

    Getting the Most Out of Your Wargame

    Some famous historical wargames offer a compelling narrative of what wargames can be at their best and worst, but they cannot illustrate the full range of contemporary wargaming that leaders should strive to achieve. A better understanding of how wargames can be helpful — or backfire — is critical.

    Jan 26, 2016

  • Arrows hitting a target

    Brochure

    RAND Year in Review 2015

    An assessment of 2015 achievements shows how well RAND carried out its mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Success stories include studies on correctional education, sexual assault in the military, and the Affordable Care Act.

    Jan 26, 2016

  • Participants are seen in silhouette as they look at a screen showing a world map with climate anomalies during the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget, near Paris, France, December 8, 2015

    Commentary

    Paris Gets the (Decision) Science Right

    The framework for the Paris negotiations is in sync with what science tells us about how to make effective public policy decisions. This alone makes them historic and may provide a model for both local and global action on more than climate alone.

    Dec 18, 2015

  • Armed police officers on guard near Buckingham Palace, London, for Trooping the Colour, June 16, 2012

    Report

    Tactical Approach to Counter Terrorists in Cities

    Counterterrorism technologies and diverse partnerships are essential when dealing with terrorist threats in urban areas. The TACTICS project team, commissioned in light of the increased threat of terrorism in European cities, has developed a technology-ready concept that could support counterterrorism operations across Europe.

    Dec 14, 2015

  • The coastline in the Miraflores district of Lima, Peru

    Commentary

    Ensuring Robust Water Management Strategies in Lima-Callão, Peru

    Water resource agencies around the world are grappling with how to make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability at a time of unprecedented water stress, growing demands, uncertain climate change, and limited budgets.

    Nov 16, 2015

  • Hand drawing a graph

    Journal Article

    Embedding (Some) Benefit-Cost Concepts Into Decision Support Processes with Deep Uncertainty

    This paper argues that new approaches exist that can help reduce the tension between the benefits of providing useful, scientifically based information to decision makers and the costs of aggregating uncertainty and differing values into single best estimates.

    Nov 13, 2015

  • Commercial stores at the beach in Lima, Peru

    Journal Article

    Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector: A Strategy for Implementing Lima's Long-Term Water Resources Master Plan

    This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer the question of long-term water reliability by drawing on state of the art methods for decision making under deep uncertainty.

    Nov 11, 2015

  • A lake surrounded by trees

    Journal Article

    An Open Source Framework for Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    This study introduces a new open source software framework to support bottom-up environmental systems planning under deep uncertainty with a focus on many-objective robust decision making (MORDM), called OpenMORDM.

    Nov 6, 2015

  • Journal Article

    Collective Intelligence Meets Medical Decision-Making: The Collective Outperforms the Best Radiologist

    While collective intelligence (CI) is a powerful approach to increase decision accuracy, few attempts have been made to unlock its potential in medical decision-making.

    Sep 14, 2015

  • A stream runs through the woods in autumn

    Report

    Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, along with state and local partners, develops and implements water quality plans. But uncertainty about the impacts of climate change and other factors may make it harder to meet water quality goals. Robust Decision Making can help better manage this uncertainty.

    Sep 9, 2015

  • Engineer looking at factory emissions

    Commentary

    Climate Targets: Values and Uncertainty

    Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.

    Aug 11, 2015

  • Journal Article

    Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach

    Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender.

    Jun 19, 2015

  • Report

    Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

    Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, acquisition decisionmakers can understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions.

    May 19, 2015

  • Brochure

    Standards for High-Quality Research and Analysis

    This brochure describes the quality standards for RAND research.

    May 6, 2015

  • Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, brief reporters at the Pentagon on April 16, 2015

    Commentary

    Fixes for Risk Assessment in Defense

    Defense Department approaches to risk management could be improved if they focused on complex strategic judgments — questions on which information is imperfect, dozens of variables interact in nonlinear ways, and human choice and agency generate unpredictable patterns.

    Apr 22, 2015

  • Dissertation

    Changing Midstream: Providing Decision Support for Adaptive Strategies using Robust Decision Making: Applications in the Colorado River Basin

    Examines how Robust Decision Making can provide decision support to natural resource planners as they create, evaluate, and deliberate about adaptive strategies.

    Mar 27, 2015

  • U.S. President Barack Obama playing a game with children in a pre-kindergarten classroom

    Commentary

    Benefit-Cost Analyses of Child and Family Preventive Interventions

    In thinking about scaling programs and services for children, youth, and families, the research community should consider economic evidence as part of their research programs in order to inform funding decisions.

    Mar 12, 2015

  • Flood waters from Hurricane Isaac partially submerge homes in Lafitte, Louisiana neighborhoods in August 2012

    Commentary

    Future of Coastal Flooding

    President Obama's executive order that directs federal agencies to plan and build for higher flood levels as they construct new projects in flood-prone regions will affect hundreds of billions of dollars of future public works projects. In an ideal world, planners would estimate the benefits and costs for each project, taking into account everything from the details of the local landscape to the potential for adaptive responses over time.

    Feb 25, 2015

  • nature, water, agriculture, green, garden, sprinkler, land, irrigation, irrigate, organic, system, plant, farm, field, vegetable, growth, crop, farming, gardening, fresh, food, sprinkling, mist, produce, spray, industry, industrial, wet, landscape, moisture, farmer, natural, health, summer, healthy, drop, grass, grow, outdoors, leaf, starch, biology, supply, irrigating, spring, agricultural, outdoor, vegetables, refreshing

    Report

    Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks: A Water Utility Framework

    RAND researchers and collaborators present a comprehensive approach for water utilities to assess climate risks to their systems and evaluate adaptation strategies.

    Jan 28, 2015

  • Sea Of Hands

    Brochure

    RAND Year in Review 2014

    RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world. This Year in Review reflects on RAND's achievements in 2014.

    Jan 28, 2015