A collaboration among RAND, the Pardee RAND Graduate School, Evolving Logic, and network partners, RDMlab promotes the development and use of Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods for policy and decisionmaking.
This study uses behavioral experiments and structured decision-maker interviews to evaluate the results of scenario discovery, a quantitative method that defines scenarios as sets of future states of the world in which proposed policies fail to meet their goals.
RAND worked with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Colorado River Basin states to apply innovative robust decision methods to evaluate thousands of plausible futures on the Colorado River and develop and compare strategies to address future vulnerabilities.
The Colorado River Basin Study evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options. The Robust Decision Making methodology helped to identify vulnerabilities and compare portfolios of options.
Research demonstrates how Robust Decision Making can help local water agencies include climate change and other uncertain factors in their long-term planning. Application to the El Dorado Irrigation District in California shows key trade-offs among future long-term water management strategies.
Managing homeland security risks involves balancing concerns about numerous types of accidents, disasters, and terrorist attacks. This research presents individuals' relative concerns about homeland security hazards and the attributes which influence those concerns.
Limiting climate change will require transformation of energy and other systems. A new model that uses Robust Decision Making tools enables decisionmakers to compare the long-term sustainability of alternative carbon emission reduction policies.
A new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), examines challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. Developing SSPs with a "backwards" approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs.
Who is best prepared for responding to surprise: a Navy SEAL, an NFL coach, or a Fortune 500 CEO? The answer is that all three professions have something to teach us: The NFL coach is an expert in pre-planning; the SEAL is great under pressure; and a good CEO has become an expert in responding to strategic threats.
Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may not work if climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from earlier projections. Robust decision making can help Vietnam's largest city develop integrated flood risk management strategies despite this uncertainty.
Dealing with surprises is an important part of many professions. The NFL coach prepares by developing a comprehensive response plan for anything that could happen during the game while the Navy SEALs rely on a looser framework that helps them stay alive and achieve their mission objective.
This research brief summarizes the findings of a project that sought to identify common strategies used by practitioners in various professions, from professional sports to Navy SEALs, to respond to unexpected events.
Professionals today are expected to respond to more variables at a faster rate than was the case even a decade ago. What do ambassadors, chief executive officers, military personnel, and physicians believe creates surprise, how do they respond to it, and how can the effects of surprise be mitigated?
To help the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) become more flexible and agile in an increasingly uncertain world, RAND researched whether the NRO might benefit from building modular satellites and examined how professionals respond to surprise.
The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) facilitates comparisons of current and future flood risk under a variety of protection system configurations in a wide range of environmental, operational, and economic uncertainties.
This report describes a proof-of-concept analysis using Robust Decision Making to evaluate water resource management response packages for California's Central Valley under future uncertainty for the California Water Plan Update 2013.
The vulnerability of coastal residents to loss of life and property damage from storm-surge flooding has already proven extensive in recent years. RAND has helped policymakers determine what mix of hurricane risk reduction and coastal restoration projects can reduce hurricane damage risk and rebuild coastal land, recognizing budget constraints.