Delphi Method

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The Delphi method was developed by RAND in the 1950s to forecast the effect of technology on warfare. It has since been applied to health care, education, management, and environmental science. Today, groups of experts or stakeholders use online tools such as ExpertLens to anonymously answer questionnaires, receive feedback that represents the “group response,” discuss, and revise their answers to see whether they can approach expert consensus.

  • Tool

    ExpertLens: An Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Stakeholder Engagement and Expert Elicitation

    Oct 25, 2021

    When making complex decisions, researchers and policymakers often seek the input of many stakeholders and individuals with varied perspectives. ExpertLens is an online, modified-Delphi application developed by research and programming experts at the RAND Corporation to help achieve these goals easily and cost effectively.

  • One doctor walking into a room to meet another doctor, illustration by Malte Müller

    Essay

    Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

    Dec 31, 2019

    Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

Explore Delphi Method

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    Report

    A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

    An application of RAND's PortMan portfolio analysis and Delphi methods for the National Security Agency (NSA) that enables allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.

    Dec 15, 2009

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

    This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.

    Jan 1, 2008

  • Nearly 100 community leaders and practitioners meet with Congressman Charles Rangel and HHS Regional Director Dr. Jaime Torres to discus the health needs of the 15th Congressional District.

    Journal Article

    Innovative Approaches to Obtaining Community Feedback in the Witness for Wellness Experience

    Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.

    Jan 1, 2006

  • painting by Bryan Charnley called "Fish Schizophrene"

    Journal Article

    Selecting Performance Measures by Consensus

    A description of an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services via a Delphi group consensus method.

    Jan 1, 2005

  • doctor with old patient

    Journal Article

    The Appropriateness of Treatment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

    Can guidelines to increase appropriate health care, usually done at the national level, be developed at an international level? Two panels of experienced urologists used a modified Delphi process to rate 1152 indications for the most common treatments for BPH on a nine-point scale.

    Jan 1, 2001

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Delphi-panel Analysis Paper by Gate Et Al.

    The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.

    Jan 1, 1999

  • surgery room

    Journal Article

    Panellist Consistency in the Assessment of Medical Appropriateness

    A panel consisting of interventional cardiologists and cardiothoracic surgeons, as convened to assess the appropriateness of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the Netherlands. The panel used a modified Delphi process to rate two rounds of 1,126 clinical indications.

    Jan 1, 1996

  • a handshake

    Report

    Consensus Methods: Characteristics and Guidelines for Use

    A survey of the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser), as well as guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.

    Jan 1, 1991

  • Engineering tools

    Report

    Creativity in Industrial Engineering

    A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research. The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field.

    Mar 1, 1971

  • Organizational pyramid

    Report

    The Delphi Method: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts

    For a number of military concerns, such as long-range technological development assessment or future threat evaluation, the expertise of a group of decisionmakers is relied on. The Delphi studies are an effort to improve such judgments through refined procedures.

    Jan 1, 1970

  • Report

    Report

    The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates

    An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.

    Jan 1, 1969

  • Group of people writing

    Report

    The DELPHI Method, II: Structure of Experiments

    This supplement to The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion presents the material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography related to Delphi studies.

    Jan 1, 1969

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    Report

    The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion

    A description of the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.

    Jan 1, 1969

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    Report

    Delphi and Values

    An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values. Delphi, a process for eliciting group opinion by a series of questionnaires with selective feedback of earlier responses, has traditionally been used for assessing expert opinion about factual questions.

    Jan 1, 1969

  • Report

    Report

    Experiments in Group Prediction

    The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Report

    Predicting the Future

    The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Report

    Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts

    A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Report

    Delphi

    An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical

    Jan 1, 1967

  • blue spiral illustration

    Report

    The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

    The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

    Jan 1, 1967

  • Report

    Report

    Systematic Use of Expert Opinions

    An explanation of the experimental Delphi technique, a systematic procedure for obtaining the opinions of experts on a particular subject.

    Jan 1, 1967