Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

  • One doctor walking into a room to meet another doctor, illustration by Malte Müller

    Essay

    Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

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    Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

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    Report

    The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

    Nov 30, 1967

    The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

Explore Delphi Method

  • Report

    Experiments in Group Prediction

    The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Predicting the Future

    The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts

    A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.

    Jan 1, 1968

  • Report

    Delphi

    An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical

    Jan 1, 1967

  • Report

    Systematic Use of Expert Opinions

    An explanation of the experimental Delphi technique, a systematic procedure for obtaining the opinions of experts on a particular subject.

    Jan 1, 1967

  • Report

    The Use of the Delphi Technique in Problems of Educational Innovations

    A description of the Delphi technique, a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of expert opinions, and its applications to educational planning.

    Jan 1, 1966

  • Report

    Improving the Reliability of Estimates Obtained from a Consensus of Experts

    A report on an experiment in the use of expert opinions. The experiment, involving the Delphi technique and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings, is described and its results analyzed.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study

    Description of an experimental trend-predicting exercise using the Delphi technique and covering a time period as far as 50 years into the future.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    Convergence of Expert Consensus Through Feedback

    A discussion of studies directed toward the improved use of expert opinions in operations research. The Delphi method as applied to consensus research is discussed and the results of experiments directed toward convergence of expert opinions present.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts

    An unrestricted abridgement and revision of a report on an experiment in the use of experts for estimation and decision making, which was part of a series of experiments performed at RAND, designated internally as "Project Delphi."

    Jan 1, 1962

  • Content

    Sandra H. Berry

    Chair, Human Subjects Protection Committee; Senior Behavioral Scientist; Senior Director, Survey Research Group
    Education M.A. in sociology, University of California, Los Angeles

  • Content

    Sean Grant

    Adjunct Behavioral and Social Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in social intervention, University of Oxford; M.Sc. in evidence-based social intervention, University of Oxford; B.A. in psychology, Loyola Marymount University; B.A.. in philosophy, Loyola Marymount University

  • Content

    Stijn Hoorens

    Office Director, RAND Europe Brussels, Senior Research Leader
    Education M.Sc. and B.Sc. in systems engineering, policy analysis, and management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands

  • Content

    Dmitry Khodyakov

    Codirector, Center for Qualitative and Mixed Methods; Senior Sociologist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in sociology, Rutgers University; M.A. in economy and society, Central European University, Warsaw; B.A. in sociology and psychology, University of Missouri

  • Content

    Lauren A. Mayer

    Senior Policy Researcher
    Education Ph.D. in engineering and public policy, Carnegie Mellon University; M.Sc. in environmental sciences and engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; B.Sc. in mathematics; environmental policy, American University

  • Content

    Richard Silberglitt

    Senior Physical Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in solid state physics, University of Pennsylvania; B.S. in physics, Stevens Institute of Technology; M.S in physics, University of Pennsylvania

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