Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

  • One doctor walking into a room to meet another doctor, illustration by Malte Müller

    Essay

    Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

    Dec 31, 2019

    Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

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    Report

    The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

    Nov 30, 1967

    The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

Explore Delphi Method

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Delphi-panel Analysis Paper by Gate Et Al.

    The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.

    Dec 31, 1998

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    Journal Article

    Panellist Consistency in the Assessment of Medical Appropriateness

    A panel consisting of interventional cardiologists and cardiothoracic surgeons, as convened to assess the appropriateness of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the Netherlands. The panel used a modified Delphi process to rate two rounds of 1,126 clinical indications.

    Dec 31, 1995

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    Report

    Consensus Methods: Characteristics and Guidelines for Use

    A survey of the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser), as well as guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.

    Dec 31, 1990

  • Engineering tools

    Report

    Creativity in Industrial Engineering

    A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research. The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field.

    Dec 31, 1970

  • Organizational pyramid

    Report

    The Delphi Method: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts

    For a number of military concerns, such as long-range technological development assessment or future threat evaluation, the expertise of a group of decisionmakers is relied on. The Delphi studies are an effort to improve such judgments through refined procedures.

    Dec 31, 1969

  • Report

    Report

    The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates

    An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.

    Dec 31, 1968

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    Report

    The DELPHI Method, II: Structure of Experiments

    This supplement to The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion presents the material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography related to Delphi studies.

    Dec 31, 1968

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    Report

    The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion

    A description of the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.

    Dec 31, 1968

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    Report

    Delphi and Values

    An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values. Delphi, a process for eliciting group opinion by a series of questionnaires with selective feedback of earlier responses, has traditionally been used for assessing expert opinion about factual questions.

    Dec 31, 1968

  • Report

    Report

    Experiments in Group Prediction

    The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.

    Dec 31, 1967

  • Report

    Report

    Predicting the Future

    The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.

    Dec 31, 1967

  • Report

    Report

    Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts

    A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.

    Dec 31, 1967

  • Report

    Report

    Delphi

    An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical

    Dec 31, 1966

  • Report

    Report

    Systematic Use of Expert Opinions

    An explanation of the experimental Delphi technique, a systematic procedure for obtaining the opinions of experts on a particular subject.

    Dec 31, 1966

  • Report

    Report

    The Use of the Delphi Technique in Problems of Educational Innovations

    A description of the Delphi technique, a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of expert opinions, and its applications to educational planning.

    Dec 31, 1965

  • Report

    Report

    Improving the Reliability of Estimates Obtained from a Consensus of Experts

    A report on an experiment in the use of expert opinions. The experiment, involving the Delphi technique and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings, is described and its results analyzed.

    Dec 31, 1963

  • Report

    Report

    Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study

    Description of an experimental trend-predicting exercise using the Delphi technique and covering a time period as far as 50 years into the future.

    Dec 31, 1963

  • Report

    Report

    Convergence of Expert Consensus Through Feedback

    A discussion of studies directed toward the improved use of expert opinions in operations research. The Delphi method as applied to consensus research is discussed and the results of experiments directed toward convergence of expert opinions present.

    Dec 31, 1963

  • Report

    Report

    An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts

    An unrestricted abridgement and revision of a report on an experiment in the use of experts for estimation and decision making, which was part of a series of experiments performed at RAND, designated internally as "Project Delphi."

    Dec 31, 1961