Delphi Method

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The Delphi method was developed by RAND in the 1950s to forecast the effect of technology on warfare. It has since been applied to health care, education, management, and environmental science. Today, groups of experts or stakeholders use online tools such as ExpertLens to anonymously answer questionnaires, receive feedback that represents the “group response,” discuss, and revise their answers to see whether they can approach expert consensus.

  • Tool

    ExpertLens: An Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Stakeholder Engagement and Expert Elicitation

    Oct 25, 2021

    When making complex decisions, researchers and policymakers often seek the input of many stakeholders and individuals with varied perspectives. ExpertLens is an online, modified-Delphi application developed by research and programming experts at the RAND Corporation to help achieve these goals easily and cost effectively.

  • One doctor walking into a room to meet another doctor, illustration by Malte Müller

    Essay

    Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

    Dec 31, 2019

    Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

Explore Delphi Method

  • Report

    Report

    The Use of the Delphi Technique in Problems of Educational Innovations

    A description of the Delphi technique, a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of expert opinions, and its applications to educational planning.

    Jan 1, 1966

  • Report

    Report

    Improving the Reliability of Estimates Obtained from a Consensus of Experts

    A report on an experiment in the use of expert opinions. The experiment, involving the Delphi technique and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings, is described and its results analyzed.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    Report

    Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study

    Description of an experimental trend-predicting exercise using the Delphi technique and covering a time period as far as 50 years into the future.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    Report

    Convergence of Expert Consensus Through Feedback

    A discussion of studies directed toward the improved use of expert opinions in operations research. The Delphi method as applied to consensus research is discussed and the results of experiments directed toward convergence of expert opinions present.

    Jan 1, 1964

  • Report

    Report

    An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts

    An unrestricted abridgement and revision of a report on an experiment in the use of experts for estimation and decision making, which was part of a series of experiments performed at RAND, designated internally as "Project Delphi."

    Jan 1, 1962

  • People

    People

    Sandra H. Berry

    Senior Behavioral Scientist; Senior Director, Survey Research Group
    Education M.A. in sociology, University of California, Los Angeles; B.A. in American Studies/Art History, Goucher College

  • People

    People

    Marika Booth

    Statistical Analyst
    Education M.S. in biostatistics, University of California at Los Angeles

  • People

    People

    Stijn Hoorens

    Office Director, RAND Europe Brussels, Senior Research Leader
    Education M.Sc. and B.Sc. in systems engineering, policy analysis, and management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands

  • People

    People

    Dmitry Khodyakov

    Codirector, Center for Qualitative and Mixed Methods; Senior Sociologist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in sociology, Rutgers University; M.A. in economy and society, Central European University, Warsaw; B.A. in sociology and psychology, University of Missouri

  • People

    People

    Lauren A. Mayer

    Associate Research Department Director, Engineering and Applied Sciences Department; Senior Policy Researcher
    Education Ph.D. in engineering and public policy, Carnegie Mellon University; M.Sc. in environmental sciences and engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; B.Sc. in mathematics; environmental policy, American University

  • People

    People

    Richard Silberglitt

    Senior Physical Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in solid state physics, University of Pennsylvania; B.S. in physics, Stevens Institute of Technology; M.S in physics, University of Pennsylvania

  • People

    People

    Rachel Steratore

    Associate Policy Researcher
    Education Ph.D. in engineering and public policy, Carnegie Mellon University; M.S. in geography, McGill Univ; B.S. in environmental science, Park University

  • People

    People

    Dulani Woods

    Codirector, Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis; Data Scientist
    Education M.S. in agricultural economics, Purdue University; B.S. in naval architecture and marine engineering, U.S. Coast Guard Academy; B.S. in mechanical engineering, U.S. Coast Guard Academy