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Delphi Technique

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

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The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

Nov 30, 1967

The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

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Journal Article

Journal Article

Engaging Patients and Caregivers Managing Rare Diseases to Improve the Methods of Clinical Guideline Development: A Research Protocol

A new, online method to engage more patients and caregivers in developing clinical guidelines will be created and then tested, using Duchenne muscular dystrophy as an example.

Jun 2, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions: Screening Tools to Alert Doctors to Right Treatment Medication Criteria Modified for U.S. Nursing Home Setting

Experts have identified new criteria for assessing the quality of prescribing in nursing homes.

Mar 15, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Comparative Analysis of Stakeholder Experience with an Online Approach to Prioritizing Patient-Centered Research Topics

Engaging diverse groups of stakeholders through online collaborative platforms is a promising and scalable approach to prioritizing patient-centered research topics.

Mar 14, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Acceptability of an Online Modified Delphi Panel Approach for Developing Health Services Performance Measures: Results from 3 Panels on Arthritis Research

An online Delphi-based process to select criteria for defining health care quality was rated as acceptable by three groups of participants, indicating it could be used to engage stakeholders in developing performance measures.

Sep 29, 2016
Journal Article

Journal Article

SEaRCH™ Expert Panel Process: Streamlining the Link Between Evidence and Practice

In this paper we describe expert panels and ways to adapt those models to form part of Samueli Institute's Scientific Evaluation and Research of Claims in Health Care (SEaRCH™) program.

Jan 21, 2016
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Report

The Potential of Blind Collaborative Justice: Testing the Impact of Expert Blinding and Consensus Building on the Validity of Forensic Testimony

RAND researchers investigated two potential contributors to biased testimony within adversarial litigation involving forensic evidence: experts' knowledge of which side they were testifying for, and lack of input from relevant scientific communities.

Aug 7, 2015
Journal Article

A Conceptual Framework and Protocol for Defining Clinical Decision Support Objectives Applicable to Medical Specialties

This article describes a conceptual framework and protocol that combines evidence review with expert opinion, using a modified Delphi expert panel process, to elicit clinically meaningful objectives for clinical decision support directly from specialists.

Sep 1, 2012
News Release

News Release

New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions

Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.

Jun 14, 2011
Journal Article

Journal Article

New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions

Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.

Jan 1, 2011
Report

A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

An application of RAND's PortMan portfolio analysis and Delphi methods for the National Security Agency (NSA) that enables allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.

Dec 15, 2009
Journal Article

Journal Article

Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework.

Jan 1, 2008
Journal Article

Innovative Approaches to Obtaining Community Feedback in the Witness for Wellness Experience

Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.

Jan 1, 2006
Journal Article

Selecting Performance Measures by Consensus

A description of an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services via a Delphi group consensus method.

Jan 1, 2005
Journal Article

The Appropriateness of Treatment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

Can guidelines to increase appropriate health care, usually done at the national level, be developed at an international level? Two panels of experienced urologists used a modified Delphi process to rate 1152 indications for the most common treatments for BPH on a nine-point scale.

Jan 1, 2001
Journal Article

Journal Article

Delphi-panel Analysis Paper by Gate Et Al.

The author responds to a critique of the methodology used by Gate et al. to assess the appropriateness of lymphoma treatment.

Jan 1, 1999
Journal Article

Panellist Consistency in the Assessment of Medical Appropriateness

A panel consisting of interventional cardiologists and cardiothoracic surgeons, as convened to assess the appropriateness of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the Netherlands. The panel used a modified Delphi process to rate two rounds of 1,126 clinical indications.

Jan 1, 1996
Report

Consensus Methods: Characteristics and Guidelines for Use

A survey of the characteristics of several major methods (Delphi, Nominal Group, and models developed by the National Institutes of Health and by Glaser), as well as guidelines for those who want to use the techniques.

Jan 1, 1991
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Creativity in Industrial Engineering

A discussion of creativity and Delphi techniques to improve company research. The creative process synthesizes knowledge, logical reasoning, and originality--the mix depending on the field.

Jan 1, 1971
Report

The Delphi Method: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts

For a number of military concerns, such as long-range technological development assessment or future threat evaluation, the expertise of a group of decisionmakers is relied on. The Delphi studies are an effort to improve such judgments through refined procedures.

Jan 1, 1970
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Report

The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates

An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.

Jan 1, 1969

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

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RAND Project AIR FORCE