Exploratory Modeling

Blog
What Mobility Might Look Like in the U.S. in 2030
Mobility — the ability to travel from one location to another — may look very different in the United States in the year 2030. Three key drivers differentiate possible scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulations, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.
Oct 28, 2013
Report
Scenarios Examine Future of Mobility in the United States
What might one expect for the future of mobility in the U.S. in 2030? A six-step scenario development process resulted in two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question, and three key drivers differentiate the scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulation, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.
Oct 24, 2013
Report
A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism - A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling
In the past, qualitative conceptual causal models called
May 1, 2013
Research Brief
Robust Decision Making Aids Planning Under Deep Uncertainty
Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning, but with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.
Feb 28, 2013
Research Brief
Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities
The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.
Jan 29, 2013
Research Brief
CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning
The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.
Oct 10, 2012
Report
Risk Assessment Model Helps Louisiana Plan for Storm Surges
The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model developed by RAND estimates flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and was used to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.
Oct 8, 2012
Report
Applying Lessons from National Security Planning Under Uncertainty
A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. Lessons from RAND's national security work on planning under uncertainty can be applied in many other fields.
Jul 31, 2012
Report
Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges
Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.
Feb 4, 2011
Dissertation
Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation
Considers proposals to augment the existing flood-damage protection system in New Orleans with ''nonstructural'' risk mitigation programs focused on single-family homes.
Apr 20, 2010
Dissertation
Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks
Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base.
May 10, 2006
Dissertation
Zeroing In: A Capabilities-based Alternative to Precision Guided Munitions Planning
Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions.
Nov 9, 2005
Research Brief
Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models
RAND Project AIR FORCE has reported a set of concepts that will improve analysts' ability to deal with uncertain models and data.
Jan 1, 2003
Report
Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
Using multiresolution, multiperspective modeling and exploratory analysis to validate models for specific contexts
Jan 1, 2003
Report
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?
Jan 1, 2003
Report
The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis
This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).
Jan 1, 2001
Report
Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling
... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.
Jan 1, 2001
Report
Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change
Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change
Jan 1, 2001
Report
Expandability of the 21st Century Army
Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.
Jan 1, 2000
Dissertation
Social Capital, Technology Diffusion and Sustainable Growth in the Developing World
The author develops an agent-based macro-econometric model for the developing world that endogenizes the process of technology diffusion by formalizing the role of social interactions.
Jan 1, 2000

RAND Topic:
Exploratory Modeling

Topic Synonyms:
Exploratory Modelling

Researcher Spotlight

Paul K. Davis

Adjunct Principal Researcher

Paul K. Davis is an adjunct principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, deterrence theory, counterterrorism, advanced…

Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Associate Engineer

Pedro Nascimento de Lima is an associate engineer at the RAND Corporation. His research leverages simulation modeling, high-performance computing, and Decision Under Deep Uncertainty methods to inform health policy decision-analytic problems.

Explore Our People »

How Did COVID-19 Affect Prison Education?

Understanding the Russian General Staff

Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?

Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts

Devices and Data: The Information We Share

The Policy Currents Podcast

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive

Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Exploratory Modeling

What Mobility Might Look Like in the U.S. in 2030

Scenarios Examine Future of Mobility in the United States

A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism - A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

Robust Decision Making Aids Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities

CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning

Risk Assessment Model Helps Louisiana Plan for Storm Surges

Applying Lessons from National Security Planning Under Uncertainty

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges

Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation

Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks

Zeroing In: A Capabilities-based Alternative to Precision Guided Munitions Planning

Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models

Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling

Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

Expandability of the 21st Century Army

Social Capital, Technology Diffusion and Sustainable Growth in the Developing World

Connect

Contact Us

I am interested in

Follow

Stay Informed

Resources

Site Information