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Exploratory Modelling

Tool
Chesapeake Bay Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST)
The Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST) is an interactive, searchable database of empirical, statistical, and conceptual models relevant to water- and climate-related planning and decisionmaking in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and beyond.
Jan 19, 2023
Essay
Tracking Migration Amid War and Disease
Researchers from RAND and RAND Europe have been working on a way to better track migrant numbers, country by country and state by state, in almost real time. They do it by tapping into one of the largest information-gathering operations on the planet, Facebook.
Apr 28, 2022
Report
Using social media data to 'nowcast' international migration around the globe
The aim of this study was to develop a tool to 'nowcast' migrant stocks by using real-time data from the Facebook Marketing Application Programming Interface (API) and official migration data from EU member states and states in the United States.
Dec 16, 2021
Report
How to Avoid Aggression or Escalation in a Crisis
Anticipating how an opponent may be reasoning, and then seeking ways to alter that thinking can inform an effective influence strategy. Deterring adversaries by threat of punishment alone is often ineffective. A better approach might involve a mix of several measures, such as being able to thwart aggression, reassurances to reduce the adversary's fears, and relationship-building.
Feb 16, 2021
Journal Article
Sacramento Area Council of Governments Peer Review
This is a peer review of Robust Decision Making, an exploratory modeling approach for informing decisions under deep uncertainty, and the Exploratory Analysis and Modeling Tool, focusing applications for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.
Sep 25, 2019
Report
Independent Review and Assessment of the Air Force Ready Aircrew Program: A Description of the Model Used for Sensitivity Analysis
This report outlines a computational model to measure whether flying units can feasibly meet U.S. Air Force continuation training requirements, presents the model's specifications, and describes how it was used to assess the Ready Aircrew Program.
Jul 15, 2019
Report
Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling
Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.
Apr 16, 2018
Tool
Interfacing Force-on-Force and Communications Models: MANA and JNE
This report documents an interface between an agent-based force-on-force simulation and a network simulation for the U.S. Army's Cyber Center of Excellence, Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate (CDID), Cyber Battle Lab.
Nov 8, 2017
Report
Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis
This report stems from a congressional request for an independent report about the U.S. Department of Defense's capabilities for joint analysis and ways to improve them.
Sep 12, 2016
Report
Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers' Needs
This report provides an overview of decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, for policymakers and modelers and provides recommendations for using the tools to inform real-world infectious disease-related policy questions.
Jul 12, 2016
Dissertation
Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty
Explores new methods to the study of international technological change and climate policy providing useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation.
Mar 11, 2016
Report
Exploring Funding Allocations to Best Support Louisiana's Flood Risk and Resilience
States that have recently experienced a presidentially declared major disaster can apply for funds through the Natural Disaster Resilience Competition. For Louisiana's application, RAND provided a quantitative analysis of baseline flood risks under different amounts of investment in three parishes.
Mar 1, 2016
News Release
Economic Growth Will Be the Main Driver of Mobility in China in 2030
Continued economic growth will be the main driver of future mobility and automobile use in China, but constraints on vehicle use and environmental regulations will be important issues as well.
Jun 30, 2015
Report
Economic Growth Will Be the Main Driver of Mobility in China in 2030
Continued economic growth will be the main driver of future mobility and automobile use in China, but constraints on vehicle use and environmental regulations will be important issues as well.
Jun 30, 2015
News Release
Economic Development Not the Only Influence on Personal Car Use
Although countries with high levels of economic development generally have more personal automobile travel than less-affluent nations, income is not the only factor that determines a nation's demand for cars.
Jul 18, 2014
Research Brief
Driving in the Future in Developing Countries
Automobility -- travel in personal vehicles -- varies between countries. This brief summarizes a study of the factors besides economic development that affect automobility and how automobility might evolve in developing countries.
Jul 15, 2014
Report
Exploring the Future of Driving in Developing Countries
The level of automobility, or travel in personal vehicles, varies among countries. By determining the factors besides economic development that have affected automobility in developed countries, researchers can predict how automobility might evolve in developing countries.
Jul 15, 2014
Research Brief
How RAND Supported the Development of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan
To plan the rebuilding of the Louisiana coastline, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from state-of-the-art predictive models within a decision tool to formulate and compare alternatives and visualize outcomes and trade-offs for policymakers and stakeholders.
Mar 18, 2014
Tool
Tool Helps Defense Planners Match Priorities for Security Cooperation
A diagnostic tool maximizes the utility of security cooperation analyses and can help defense planners identify potential mismatches between security cooperation funding, priorities, and propensity for success with a given country.
Nov 6, 2013
Dissertation
Monopoly and Micro-Irrigation in Smallholder Water Markets
Many rural agricultural areas around the world are facing severely depleted groundwater resources, which farmers rely on for irrigation. This dissertation explores the changes that would follow a move to formalize water markets and establish tradable water rights.
Oct 30, 2013

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RAND Topic:
Exploratory Modeling

Topic Synonyms:
Exploratory Modelling

Researcher Spotlight

Paul K. Davis

Adjunct Principal Researcher

Paul K. Davis is an adjunct principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, deterrence theory, counterterrorism, advanced…
Michael W. Robbins

Senior Statistician

Michael Robbins is a senior statistician at the RAND Corporation. He has a diverse background that includes thorough training in applied and theoretical statistics. His methodological interests include survey design and methodologies, causal inference, change-point analysis, missing data…

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