Forecasting Methodology

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  • Map of the state of Virginia with a virus on it, illustration by Maxchered/Getty Images

    Report

    Which COVID-19 Models Are Useful to Policymakers?

    Forecasting models are widely used to inform policymakers about the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of policy responses to it. As models are being developed and improved continually, a new RAND framework can assess which ones are suitable for the state of Virginia.

    Jul 8, 2020

  • Signpost silhouetted in the sunset, photo by Mato/Adbode Stock

    Commentary

    Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World

    Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.

    Jan 28, 2022

Explore Forecasting Methodology

  • Uniformed men, believed to be Russian servicemen, near a Ukrainian military base in the village of Perevalnoye

    Commentary

    I Predicted Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

    The Russian military intervention caught many foreign policy analysts by surprise. Articles explaining why Russia wouldn't intervene ran in Foreign Affairs, Time, and the New York Times; and even the intelligence community was caught off guard. Events have proven them wrong.

    Mar 10, 2014

  • Abstract cubes

    Report

    RAND Behavioral Finance Webinar: Craig Fox Presents "Metacognitive Knowledge and Financial Decision Making"

    Craig R. Fox discusses the importance of both subjective and objective knowledge in financial decision making.

    Mar 6, 2014

  • Power lines stretch across rural Turkey, where the World Bank has renewable energy and energy efficiency projects

    Commentary

    Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World

    Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.

    Feb 28, 2014

  • a police car pulling over a driver

    Commentary

    Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball

    Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.

    Nov 14, 2013

  • police, car, cruiser, law, order, patrol, streets, crime, speeders, trap, waiting, lights, lightbar, city, watch, observe, neighborhood

    Research Brief

    Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement

    Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. An assessment of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches offers recommendations for police and developers.

    Oct 14, 2013

  • police car and yellow tape police line do not cross

    Report

    The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

    Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, predicting offenders, predicting perpetrators' identities, and predicting victims of crime. These methods are not equivalent to a crystal ball, but they can enhance proactive policing and improve intervention strategies.

    Sep 25, 2013

  • Hurricane Katrina - NWS

    Dissertation

    Improving Flood Risk Estimates and Mitigation Policies in Coastal Louisiana under Deep Uncertainty

    This dissertation consists of three essays that summarize the author's contributions to the study of flood risk in coastal Louisiana during and following its 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, an action-oriented plan consisting of over one hundred projects designed to minimize future land loss and flood risk while simultaneously considering negative impacts on fisheries and other ecosystem services.

    Sep 9, 2013

  • Hurricane Katrina satellite photo

    Journal Article

    Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model Helps Estimate Surge-Based Flood Risk

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) facilitates comparisons of current and future flood risk under a variety of protection system configurations in a wide range of environmental, operational, and economic uncertainties.

    Aug 1, 2013

  • Vasco de Gama Bridge, Lisbon

    Commentary

    The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends

    When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic, writes Stijn Hoorens.

    May 8, 2013

  • train track switch

    Research Brief

    Robust Decision Making Aids Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

    Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning, but with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

    Feb 28, 2013

  • Research Brief

    Research Brief

    Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities

    The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

    Jan 29, 2013

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Transport Surveys: Considerations for Decision Makers and Decision Making

    This book provides an international perspective on improving information to support transportation decision making.

    Jan 1, 2013

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Detecting Ionospheric TEC Perturbations Caused by Natural Hazards Using a Global Network of GPS Receivers: The Tohoku Case Study

    Recent advances in GPS data processing have demonstrated that ground-based GPS receivers are capable of detecting ionospheric TEC perturbations caused by surface-generated Rayleigh, acoustic and gravity waves.

    Dec 1, 2012

  • Research Brief

    Research Brief

    CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 10, 2012

  • sandbags flood relief

    Report

    Risk Assessment Model Helps Louisiana Plan for Storm Surges

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model developed by RAND estimates flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and was used to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 8, 2012

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions

    In this essay, we are concerned with the question: How does what might happen in 2050 affect decisions about the freight transport sector today? How do we make near-term choices that last over the long term? In other words, how do we make decisions today that are robust over a wide range of alternative futures?

    Feb 1, 2012

  • Report

    Report

    Resource-Constrained Spatial Hot Spot Identification

    Describes a methodology for identifying areas where problem events are more pronounced and directing resources toward those areas.

    May 11, 2011

  • Report

    Report

    Managing Air Force Joint Expeditionary Taskings in an Uncertain Environment

    Air Force career fields are experiencing deployment strains due to joint requests for forces. A RAND-developed model used personnel and deployment data to assess the supply of and demand for personnel and capabilities to fill these joint assignments.

    Feb 3, 2011

  • Report

    Report

    Making Policy in the Shadow of the Future

    Using a National Intelligence Council report on what the world will look like in 2025, this paper explores issues for which a long-term perspective might change U.S. policy now -- such as climate change, international relations, and nuclear abolition.

    May 21, 2010

  • Report

    Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future

    Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.

    Dec 15, 2009