Forecasting Methodology

Featured

  • Map of the state of Virginia with a virus on it, illustration by Maxchered/Getty Images

    Report

    Which COVID-19 Models Are Useful to Policymakers?

    Jul 8, 2020

    Forecasting models are widely used to inform policymakers about the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of policy responses to it. As models are being developed and improved continually, a new RAND framework can assess which ones are suitable for the state of Virginia.

  • Senior man holding child's hand outdoors

    Report

    A Growing and Aging Population: Global Societal Trends to 2030

    Feb 16, 2015

    An analysis of the changing demographic profile of the world's population and major trends can help the EU anticipate future challenges. These trends relate chiefly to overall population growth, population decline in Europe, and, in the future, in other parts of the world.

Explore Forecasting Methodology

  • Hurricane Katrina - NWS

    Dissertation

    Improving Flood Risk Estimates and Mitigation Policies in Coastal Louisiana under Deep Uncertainty

    This dissertation consists of three essays that summarize the author's contributions to the study of flood risk in coastal Louisiana during and following its 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, an action-oriented plan consisting of over one hundred projects designed to minimize future land loss and flood risk while simultaneously considering negative impacts on fisheries and other ecosystem services.

    Sep 9, 2013

  • Hurricane Katrina satellite photo

    Journal Article

    Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model Helps Estimate Surge-Based Flood Risk

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) facilitates comparisons of current and future flood risk under a variety of protection system configurations in a wide range of environmental, operational, and economic uncertainties.

    Aug 1, 2013

  • Vasco de Gama Bridge, Lisbon

    Commentary

    The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends

    When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic, writes Stijn Hoorens.

    May 8, 2013

  • train track switch

    Research Brief

    Robust Decision Making Aids Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

    Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning, but with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

    Feb 28, 2013

  • Research Brief

    Research Brief

    Taking a Comprehensive Planning Approach to Address Coastal Vulnerabilities

    The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana used a new analytic approach, developed in part by RAND, that incorporates results from predictive models in a decision tool to allow formulation and comparison of alternatives.

    Jan 29, 2013

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Transport Surveys: Considerations for Decision Makers and Decision Making

    This book provides an international perspective on improving information to support transportation decision making.

    Jan 1, 2013

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Detecting Ionospheric TEC Perturbations Caused by Natural Hazards Using a Global Network of GPS Receivers: The Tohoku Case Study

    Recent advances in GPS data processing have demonstrated that ground-based GPS receivers are capable of detecting ionospheric TEC perturbations caused by surface-generated Rayleigh, acoustic and gravity waves.

    Dec 1, 2012

  • Research Brief

    Research Brief

    CLARA Flood Risk Model Supports Louisiana's Coastal Planning

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model estimates hurricane flood depths and damage and enables evaluation of potential flood risk reduction projects for inclusion in Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 10, 2012

  • sandbags flood relief

    Report

    Risk Assessment Model Helps Louisiana Plan for Storm Surges

    The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model developed by RAND estimates flood depths and damage that occurs as a result of major storms in Louisiana's coastal region and was used to evaluate potential projects for inclusion in the state's 2012 Coastal Master Plan.

    Oct 8, 2012

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions

    In this essay, we are concerned with the question: How does what might happen in 2050 affect decisions about the freight transport sector today? How do we make near-term choices that last over the long term? In other words, how do we make decisions today that are robust over a wide range of alternative futures?

    Feb 1, 2012

  • Report

    Report

    Resource-Constrained Spatial Hot Spot Identification

    Describes a methodology for identifying areas where problem events are more pronounced and directing resources toward those areas.

    May 11, 2011

  • Report

    Report

    Managing Air Force Joint Expeditionary Taskings in an Uncertain Environment

    Air Force career fields are experiencing deployment strains due to joint requests for forces. A RAND-developed model used personnel and deployment data to assess the supply of and demand for personnel and capabilities to fill these joint assignments.

    Feb 3, 2011

  • Report

    Report

    Making Policy in the Shadow of the Future

    Using a National Intelligence Council report on what the world will look like in 2025, this paper explores issues for which a long-term perspective might change U.S. policy now -- such as climate change, international relations, and nuclear abolition.

    May 21, 2010

  • Report

    Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future

    Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.

    Dec 15, 2009

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?

    Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions.

    Mar 31, 2009

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Single Women's Labor Supply Elasticities: Trends and Policy Implications

    This paper uses CPS data to examine changes in single women's labor supply elasticities in recent decades. Specifically, the authors investigate trends in how single women's hours of work and labor force participation rates responded to both wages and income over the years 1979-2003. Results from the base specification suggest that over the observation period, hours wage elasticities decreased by 82%, participation wage elasticities by 36%, and participation income elasticities by 57%. These results imply that changes in tax policy had a much larger effect on the labor supply and labor force participation behavior of women in this subpopulation in the early 1980s than in recent years.

    Jan 1, 2009

  • Report

    Report

    Options for Meeting the Maintenance Demands of Active Associate Flying Units

    Evaluates maintenance options for U.S. Air Force associate units, where the goal of the associate units is to produce trained pilots in the most efficient manner possible.

    Jun 5, 2008

  • Visitors to the 911 Memorial plaza peer through glass windows into the 911 Memorial Museum at the World Trade Center site in New York

    Report

    Taxpayers, Policyholders Benefit from Terrorism Risk Insurance Program

    Taxpayers save money and businesses are better protected with the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) in place than if the act is allowed to expire. TRIA allows the insurance industry to play a larger role in compensating losses caused by smaller terrorist attacks by transferring some of the risk for the largest attack to the government.

    Sep 25, 2007

  • Report

    Report

    Supporting the Future Total Force: A Methodology for Evaluating Potential Air National Guard Mission Assignments

    Examines Air Force missions that could be transferred, in whole or in part, to the Air National Guard.

    Aug 19, 2007

  • Dissertation

    Dissertation

    Developing a Safety Net for Ukraine

    Explores issues of development of social safety nets in countries in transition and looks at whether reducing social security expenditures to stimulate economic growth policy is an effective way to combat poverty in such countries.

    Aug 19, 2007