RAND Research Topic: Intelligence Analysis 2017-07-19T17:17:33Z Copyright (c) 2017, The RAND Corporation RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/topics/intelligence-analysis.html What ISIS Leaves Behind in Mosul Will Reveal a Lot Brian Michael Jenkins https://www.rand.org/blog/2016/11/what-isis-leaves-behind-in-mosul-will-reveal-a-lot.html Nov 18, 2016 Nov 18, 2016 The capture of Mosul, Iraq, may produce a potential trove of information about how ISIS organized itself to run a large city. Collecting, analyzing, and disseminating this material will be a major effort, one of the most important as the city is liberated. Leveraging the Past to Prepare for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis Brien Alkire; Abbie Tingstad; Dale Benedetti; Amado Cordova; Irina Danescu; William Fry; D. Scott George; Lawrence M. Hanser; Lance Menthe; Erik Nemeth; David Ochmanek; Julia Pollak; Jessie Riposo; Timothy William James Smith; Alexander Stephenson https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1330.html Apr 27, 2016 Apr 27, 2016 This report describes steps the U.S. Air Force can take to help ensure that it has the capability needed to provide intelligence analysis support to a broad range of service and combatant commander needs. The Future of Sectarian Relations in the Middle East Jeffrey Martini; Heather J. Williams; William Young https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE242.html May 22, 2017 May 22, 2017 Sectarianism is shaping developments across the Middle East. But sectarianism is only one lens for understanding the region's conflicts, and some of its drivers are amenable to policy interventions. Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community Stephen Artner; Rich Girven; James Bruce https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1408.html Jan 9, 2017 Jan 9, 2017 This report argues for more systematic assessment of the structured analytic techniques employed by the Intelligence Community and provides a pilot study illustrating how they could be evaluated. Preparing for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis Brien Alkire; Abbie Tingstad; Dale Benedetti; Amado Cordova; Irina Danescu; William Fry; D. Scott George; Lawrence M. Hanser; Lance Menthe; Erik Nemeth; David Ochmanek; Julia Pollak; Jessie Riposo; Timothy William James Smith; Alexander Stephenson https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1330.html Apr 27, 2016 Apr 27, 2016 Given the recent focus on irregular warfare, it is essential that the United States Air Force has the capability to provide intelligence analysis in support of a broader range of operations. Past operations offer key lessons to help prepare for USAF intelligence in the future. U.S. National Security Decisionmaking Processes Need Trimming RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/news/press/2016/04/05.html Apr 5, 2016 Apr 5, 2016 Increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of the National Security Council is necessary as the country contends with many more state and nonstate actors, around-the-clock public scrutiny, and exploding nontraditional threats. U.S. National Security Decisionmaking Processes Need Streamlining Charles P. Ries https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE192.html Apr 5, 2016 Apr 5, 2016 The U.S. national security system faces a range of management challenges. A leaner, more focused national security decisionmaking system can help the United States succeed in a period of tumultuous change. Assessing Threats with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence Paul K. Davis; Walter L. Perry; John S. Hollywood; David Manheim https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1200.html Feb 1, 2016 Feb 1, 2016 Part of thwarting terrorist attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with diverse means. These observations provide data that are often both complex and “soft.” How can analysts combine these data to form a realistic threat assessment? Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists Paul K. Davis; Walter L. Perry; John S. Hollywood; David Manheim https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP50992.html Dec 14, 2015 Dec 14, 2015 We describe basic research that uses a causal, uncertainty-sensitive computational model rooted in qualitative social science to fuse disparate pieces of threat information. Assessing and Evaluating DoD Inform, Influence, and Persuade Efforts Christopher Paul; Jessica Yeats; Colin P. Clarke; Miriam Matthews; Lauren Skrabala https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP50917.html Oct 22, 2015 Oct 22, 2015 This article aims to establish effective principles and best practices for the assessment of IIP efforts from across sectors and distill them for future application in DoD. Prediction of Political Action by Means of Propaganda Analysis Alexander L. George https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP51174.html May 27, 2015 May 27, 2015 A study to determine an opponent's initiatives through analysis of his propaganda. 'Cloud' System Could Help Navy Analysts Consume Expanding Ocean of Data Isaac R. Porche III; Bradley Wilson; Erin-Elizabeth Johnson; Shane Tierney; Evan Saltzman https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR315.html May 5, 2014 May 5, 2014 The Navy has a growing demand for intelligence to help Navy vessels avoid collisions, pinpoint targets, and perform other vital tasks. But the amount of data it may collect in the future is more than it can process today. “Cloud” strategies offer promising options. 'Cloud' System Could Help Navy Analysts Consume Expanding Ocean of Data RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/news/press/2014/05/05/index1.html May 5, 2014 May 5, 2014 The Navy has a growing demand for intelligence to help Navy vessels avoid collisions, pinpoint targets, and perform other vital tasks. But the amount of data it may collect in the future is more than it can process today. Cloud strategies offer promising options. The Utility of Modeling and Analysis in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars Ben Connable; Walter L. Perry; Abby Doll; Natasha Lander; Dan Madden https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9758.html Feb 10, 2014 Feb 10, 2014 RAND examined the utility of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation for supporting decisionmaking in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, with the focus on Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Modeling, Simulation, and Operations Analysis in Afghanistan and Iraq Ben Connable; Walter L. Perry; Abby Doll; Natasha Lander; Dan Madden https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR382.html Feb 10, 2014 Feb 10, 2014 RAND conducted an examination of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation support to decisionmaking in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom to illustrate how these tools can support decisionmaking in irregular warfare. Improving the U.S. Military's Understanding of Unstable Environments Vulnerable to Violent Extremist Groups: Insights from Social Science David E. Thaler; Ryan Andrew Brown; Gabriella C. Gonzalez; Blake W. Mobley; Parisa Roshan https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR298.html Jan 16, 2014 Jan 16, 2014 What factors create and perpetuate environments susceptible to insurgency, terrorism, and other extremist violence and instability? Twelve are presented to inform military decisions on allocation of analytic and security assistance resources. Motion Imagery Processing and Exploitation (MIPE) Amado Cordova; Lindsay D. Millard; Lance Menthe; Robert A. Guffey; Carl Rhodes https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR154.html Oct 29, 2013 Oct 29, 2013 Motion Imagery Processing and Exploitation (MIPE) systems aid analysts in the detection, identification, and tracking of objects of interest and activities of interest in live and archival video. This report defines and investigates the potential of MIPE systems, which can enable military intelligence analysts to respond to the current information deluge and exploit a wide range of motion imagery collections. Military Intelligence Fusion for Complex Operations: A New Paradigm Ben Connable https://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP377.html Jul 23, 2012 Jul 23, 2012 A proposed a paradigm shift in how military intelligence is fused, via behavioral intelligence analysis, a concept that provides a more complete picture of the complex counterinsurgency environment. New Counterinsurgency Assessment Methods Are Needed to Better Inform Policymakers RAND Corporation https://www.rand.org/news/press/2012/05/03.html May 3, 2012 May 3, 2012 The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground. New Counterinsurgency Assessment Methods Are Needed to Better Inform Policymakers Ben Connable https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1086.html May 3, 2012 May 3, 2012 The U.S. Department of Defense will receive more detailed, transparent, and credible assessments of its counterinsurgency campaigns by replacing its top-down approach with a bottom-up method driven by contextual, narrative reporting provided by commanders on the ground.