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International Trade

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International trade—business conducted across national borders—drives GDP and directly and indirectly affects global alliances, globalization, and the economic health of nations. RAND research has examined international trade in contexts as diverse as arms trafficking, the drug trade, international nuclear commerce, trade unions, the U.S.-China trade deficit, and economic investment in Ukraine.

Commentary
Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain
As Russia has been blockading ports around Odesa, Ukrainian grain exports in May were more than 60 percent lower than a year ago. Global hunger has hit a new high while 22 million tons of grain in Ukraine could rot if not exported soon.
Jun 15, 2022
Essay
The Economic Returns of Foreign Language Learning
If just 10 percent more students in the United Kingdom mastered Arabic, Mandarin, French, or Spanish, the economic returns could be measured in billions of British pounds. Removing the language barrier reduces trade costs.
Jul 7, 2022

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Commentary
The Burdens of Brexit
The economic consequences of Brexit are likely to be negative across a wide range of scenarios, including the most likely outcomes that the UK now faces. If the UK leaves the EU with no trade deal it could lose 4.9 percent of GDP, or $140 billion, after 10 years.
Dec 12, 2017
Report
Potential Impacts of Brexit on UK, EU, U.S. Economies
The UK economy is likely to suffer under the most probable post-Brexit trade scenarios. Leaving the EU with no deal would make the UK nearly 5 percent poorer in 2029 than if it had remained. The most beneficial scenario would be a trilateral UK-EU-U.S. agreement, but that is unlikely in the current political environment.
Dec 11, 2017
Tool
Calculator Explores Five “Hard Brexit” Scenarios
An interactive calculator based on RAND's After Brexit report allows users to examine how negotiations are likely to affect the economies of the UK, EU, and U.S. in the 10 years after Brexit negotiations conclude.
Dec 11, 2017
Commentary
Why the EU Single Market Has Still Not Reached Its Full Potential
The EU Single Market aimed to promote intra-European trade, increase competition, create more jobs and make Europe more attractive to foreign direct investment. The economic benefits of the Single Market are clear, but closer integration requires political buy-in from individual member states and the EU.
Nov 8, 2017
Commentary
Sustaining America's Economic Strength in the Asia-Pacific: A Narrowing Window of Opportunity
Ali Wyne urges President Trump to reassure U.S. allies that the United States has both the capacity and the willingness to maintain an enduring presence in the Asia-Pacific. That reassurance must be grounded in credible geo-economic pledges.
Nov 8, 2017
Commentary
The Multilateral Order Makes America Stronger
Skeptics have suggested that U.S. interests and support for the international community are somehow mutually exclusive. In fact, international institutions, rules, and norms have mostly worked in the U.S. interest, not against it. The Trump administration has an opportunity to build on that record with a strong agenda of reform and support.
Sep 26, 2017
Report
Measuring the Health of the International Order
The liberal international order that has been in place since 1945 is relatively stable. But the order is threatened by geopolitical and domestic socioeconomic trends that call into question its assumptions. U.S. support and engagement over the coming decade will be essential.
Sep 5, 2017
Commentary
American Isolationism Isn't New
Isolationism is a recurring temptation of American foreign policy. Responding to new and unforeseen challenges, however, the United States has repeatedly resisted that temptation and risen to the demands of global leadership. Is it different today?
Aug 1, 2017
News Release
British Public Reject “No Deal” on Brexit
The British people disagree with the claim that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” when it comes to negotiations for leaving the EU. They want a deal on Brexit and are willing to compromise to get one.
Jul 14, 2017
Journal Article
British Public Rejects “No Deal” on Brexit
The British people disagree with the claim that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” when it comes to negotiations for leaving the European Union. They want a deal on Brexit and are willing to compromise to get one.
Jul 13, 2017
Report
What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments: Technical addendum
A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments to quantify the British people's preferences for their relationship with the European Union after Brexit.
Jul 13, 2017
Essay
Are America's Overseas Security Commitments Worth It?
A growing debate has called into question U.S. international security commitments and whether their economic value outweighs their costs. Research suggests that the magnitude of the benefits could be substantial.
Jul 7, 2017
Commentary
Northern Ireland Is Now at the Forefront of Brexit
After Prime Minister Theresa May's unexpected failure to win a majority in June's snap election, she is now reliant on Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to shore up a minority Conservative government. As Brexit negotiations begin, European politicians should refresh their knowledge of Northern Irish politics.
Jun 29, 2017
Commentary
The Snap Election, What's in It for Theresa May?
Why would Theresa May take the risk of a national election, which otherwise wouldn't be needed until 2020, and what does she expect to gain from it? Calling an election now enables May to take decisive control of her party and should strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations.
Apr 23, 2017
Report
Chinese Investment in U.S. Aviation Is Not a Threat to Competitiveness
Since 2005, Chinese companies have acquired, merged, or established joint ventures with more than a dozen U.S. aviation companies. The investment has been limited to smaller manufacturers of technologies not relevant to commercial or military aircraft, likely due to effective U.S. export and foreign investment regulations.
Apr 10, 2017
Commentary
Brexit and the Politics of Raising Barriers
A lot is known about bringing new members into alliances and trade relationships. Not much is known about dismantling these bonds peaceably. Since Brexit will be more about adding barriers than taking them down, it will be a leap into the dark.
Mar 29, 2017
Commentary
Strategic Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal from TPP
America's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership has exacerbated doubts about U.S. international leadership and America's role in Asia. Future trade agreements could face similar fates until they do a better job outlining how domestic workers can prosper.
Mar 27, 2017
Commentary
Politics Across the Pond
Donald Trump and Theresa May can't actually get much done on U.S.-U.K. trade in the short term. Whatever Trump and May say or agree to during this visit will be for political effect. Any real bargaining on the economics will take place years in the future.
Jan 31, 2017
Commentary
Against the rising tide: an overview of the growing criminalization of the Mediterranean basin
This publication is part of a series of four RAND Perspectives (PE) each focusing on different challenges in the Mediterranean region. The focus of this PE is on defence and security issues and their implications for regional stability.
Jan 26, 2017
Commentary
China Stressed a Growing Interest in Global Trade and Governance at Davos
President Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader to appear at the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum last week. He gave a keynote speech that defended global trade and criticized protectionism. His speech reflected, in part, the reality that China has profited enormously from decades of globalization.
Jan 24, 2017

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RAND Topic:
International Trade

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

C. Richard Neu

Adjunct Staff

Richard Neu is an adjunct staff member at the RAND Corporation and formerly a senior economist at RAND. He is also a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Most recently, Neu served as director of the RAND-Initiated Research program. He served for three years as the founding director of…
Rafiq Dossani

Director, RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy

Rafiq Dossani is director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, a senior economist at RAND, and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He works on education, finance, regional development, security, trade, and technology issues. Recent projects include China's…

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