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Missile Defense

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Commentary
Japan's Potential Acquisition of Ground-Launched Land-Attack Missiles: Implications for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance
If Japan acquired ground-based strike capabilities, it would have significant consequences for the U.S.-Japanese alliance. American and Japanese policymakers may need to have a new and expanded set of conversations about how such capabilities would be used and how the alliance could adjust to incorporate them.
Sep 9, 2021
Commentary
Weighing the Cost and Necessity of Nuclear Modernization
The United States has fielded a Triad of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems since the 1950s. Major components are nearing the end of their service lives, raising the question of whether to extend or replace them. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to modernize, diversify, and expand their nuclear arsenals.
Jan 3, 2022

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Commentary
On Northeast Asia
China has been a major proponent of regional security for Northeast Asia but appears disinterested in Republic of Korea (ROK) security against North Korean missile and nuclear weapon threats.
Sep 23, 2016
Report
Weighing the Potential Value of Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific
The U.S. Department of State concluded in 2014 that Russia is in violation of its obligations under the INF Treaty. If the treaty cannot be revived, the U.S. Army should assess the value of adding conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles to its portfolio of strike capabilities.
Jun 28, 2016
Commentary
THAAD's Effect on South Korea's Neighbors
It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.
Apr 5, 2016
Commentary
How China's New Russian Air Defense System Could Change Asia
The Russian S-400 TRIUMF surface to air missile entered the media spotlight when Moscow deployed the system after Turkey's shoot-down of a Russian plane near the Syria border on Thanksgiving Day. This episode demonstrated the S-400's potential as a weapon with strategic effects, a role that China may seek to exploit in future crises.
Jan 21, 2016
Journal Article
The Iranian Missile Threat to Air Bases: A Distant Second to China's Conventional Deterrent
Iranian and Chinese ballistic missile doctrine contrasted. Implications for United States (US) force posture, force structure, and ability to project force globally.
Jul 31, 2015
Report
The Changing Nature of Air-Base Attacks
Since the end of the Cold War, American airpower has been able to operate largely free from attack. But emerging long-range strike capabilities are bringing this era of sanctuary to an end. This has significant implications for the American way of war.
Jun 12, 2015
Report
Comparing U.S. Army Systems with Foreign Counterparts
To address possible capability gaps in its systems, the U.S. Army should examine options for countering long-range rockets, support research and development in robotics, consider approaches to lighten the loads for infantrymen, and examine the need for a new specialized manned reconnaissance aircraft.
May 13, 2015
Q&A
South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett
What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.
Apr 3, 2015
Report
Defending Against Iranian Missile Threats Without Diluting the Russian Deterrent
In 2013, the U.S. opted to cancel Phase 4 of its European Phased Adaptive Approach missile defense system. Russia had cited it as a threat to its nuclear deterrent. The restructured U.S. system remains capable of reaching Iranian missiles without posing a threat to Russia's missile forces.
Feb 13, 2015
Report
Cruise Missile Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Cruise Missile Defenses
An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to cruise missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Oct 20, 2014
Commentary
The Grim Lessons of “Protective Edge”
For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a “long war,” remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.
Sep 3, 2014
Report
Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Ballistic Missile Defenses
An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to ballistic missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Feb 26, 2014
Commentary
America's New Missile Gap
With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military refocused on the non-nuclear realm. In most cases, military professionals moved seamlessly into this realm, but the land-based missileers lacked the option to shift their focus.
Feb 25, 2014
Report
Crisis Stability and Long-Range Strike: A Comparative Analysis of Fighters, Bombers, and Missiles
In an international crisis, the United States must balance its threats with restraint while limiting its vulnerability. A RAND study sought to identify which long-range strike assets offer capabilities most conducive to stabilizing such crises.
Jun 19, 2013
Commentary
Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis
As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.
Nov 21, 2012
Commentary
NATO's Shrinking Resources
At a time when the European Union faces mounting economic and political challenges, maintaining a strong, vibrant Atlantic alliance is more important than ever, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.
May 16, 2012
Commentary
The Kremlin's Bold Missile Defense Gambit
Russia's proposal for joint missile defense represents a potential game-changer for the Kremlin's relations with the West, writes Andrew Weiss.
Jan 27, 2011
Brochure
PRGS 2010 Defense Seminar Brochure
Describes the course offerings and faculty for an intensive weeklong program offered by the Pardee RAND Graduate School in fall 2010.
Jun 9, 2010
Commentary
Biden's Task in Eastern Europe: Reassurance
Vice President Joseph Biden's trip to eastern Europe this week provides an important opportunity to reassure Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania that the U.S. is committed to their security. This reassurance is needed, especially in the wake of the decision to cancel the deployment of missile defense installations in the region, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Christopher S. Chivvis.
Oct 20, 2009
Report
RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual
PAT was designed to facilitate strategic analysis dealing with uncertainty and differences of perspective. It enables an approach to analysis oriented toward assisting high-level decisionmakers to frame their thinking about balance, to construct good multifaceted options for consideration, and to make subsequent choices.
Oct 20, 2009

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RAND Topic:
Missile Defense

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Mel Eisman

Senior Operations Research Analyst

Mel Eisman is a senior operations research analyst at the RAND Corporation. He has generated system life-cycle cost estimates for analysis of alternative studies on future Air Force airborne tanker and airborne electronic attack options, and participated in cost-effectiveness studies of (1)…
James Williams

Senior Engineer

Jim Williams is a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation. His research areas include mission analysis of new technologies and operational concepts in contested combat environments and ballistic and cruise missile defense. Much of his work involves computer modeling and simulation of Blue versus…

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