Missile Defense

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  • Two THAAD interceptors and a Standard-Missile 3 Block IA missile being launched at a test site

    Commentary

    THAAD's Effect on South Korea's Neighbors

    It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.

    Apr 5, 2016

  • S-400 Triumf SAMs during the rehearsal for 2009 Victory Day parade in Moscow

    Commentary

    How China's New Russian Air Defense System Could Change Asia

    The Russian S-400 TRIUMF surface to air missile entered the media spotlight when Moscow deployed the system after Turkey's shoot-down of a Russian plane near the Syria border on Thanksgiving Day. This episode demonstrated the S-400's potential as a weapon with strategic effects, a role that China may seek to exploit in future crises.

    Jan 21, 2016

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    The Iranian Missile Threat to Air Bases: A Distant Second to China's Conventional Deterrent

    Iranian and Chinese ballistic missile doctrine contrasted. Implications for United States (US) force posture, force structure, and ability to project force globally.

    Jul 31, 2015

  • F-22 Raptors with the Hawaii Air National Guard, March 14, 2014

    Report

    The Changing Nature of Air-Base Attacks

    Since the end of the Cold War, American airpower has been able to operate largely free from attack. But emerging long-range strike capabilities are bringing this era of sanctuary to an end. This has significant implications for the American way of war.

    Jun 12, 2015

  • A precision-guided missile was fired during its first test-fire outside of the United States, near Tikrit, Iraq

    Report

    Comparing U.S. Army Systems with Foreign Counterparts

    To address possible capability gaps in its systems, the U.S. Army should examine options for countering long-range rockets, support research and development in robotics, consider approaches to lighten the loads for infantrymen, and examine the need for a new specialized manned reconnaissance aircraft.

    May 13, 2015

  • Two Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors are launched during a successful intercept test in September 2013

    Q&A

    South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett

    What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.

    Apr 3, 2015

  • A military policeman looks through binoculars before the official groundbreaking ceremony of the site for the U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense facility east of Bucharest, October 28, 2013

    Report

    Defending Against Iranian Missile Threats Without Diluting the Russian Deterrent

    In 2013, the U.S. opted to cancel Phase 4 of its European Phased Adaptive Approach missile defense system. Russia had cited it as a threat to its nuclear deterrent. The restructured U.S. system remains capable of reaching Iranian missiles without posing a threat to Russia's missile forces.

    Feb 13, 2015

  • Report

    Report

    Cruise Missile Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Cruise Missile Defenses

    An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to cruise missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Oct 20, 2014

  • Palestinians walk past a mosque and water tower damaged by Israeli air strikes and shelling in Khuzaa, in the southern Gaza Strip

    Commentary

    The Grim Lessons of “Protective Edge”

    For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a “long war,” remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.

    Sep 3, 2014

  • Report

    Report

    Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Ballistic Missile Defenses

    An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to ballistic missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Feb 26, 2014

  • Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel visited Airmen from the 90th Missile Wing to learn about the ICBM mission and the people who operate, maintain, secure, and support the Minuteman III weapon system

    Commentary

    America's New Missile Gap

    With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military refocused on the non-nuclear realm. In most cases, military professionals moved seamlessly into this realm, but the land-based missileers lacked the option to shift their focus.

    Feb 25, 2014

  • Report

    Report

    Crisis Stability and Long-Range Strike: A Comparative Analysis of Fighters, Bombers, and Missiles

    In an international crisis, the United States must balance its threats with restraint while limiting its vulnerability. A RAND study sought to identify which long-range strike assets offer capabilities most conducive to stabilizing such crises.

    Jun 19, 2013

  • A Patriot missile is launched by soldiers at McGregor Range near El Paso, Texas

    Commentary

    Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis

    As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.

    Nov 21, 2012

  • U.S. President Barack Obama walks out before he holds a news conference after the 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago at McCormick Place in Chicago, May 21, 2012

    Commentary

    NATO's Shrinking Resources

    At a time when the European Union faces mounting economic and political challenges, maintaining a strong, vibrant Atlantic alliance is more important than ever, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.

    May 16, 2012

  • Commentary

    Commentary

    The Kremlin's Bold Missile Defense Gambit

    Russia's proposal for joint missile defense represents a potential game-changer for the Kremlin's relations with the West, writes Andrew Weiss.

    Jan 27, 2011

  • Brochure

    Brochure

    PRGS 2010 Defense Seminar Brochure

    Describes the course offerings and faculty for an intensive weeklong program offered by the Pardee RAND Graduate School in fall 2010.

    Jun 9, 2010

  • Commentary

    Commentary

    Biden's Task in Eastern Europe: Reassurance

    Vice President Joseph Biden's trip to eastern Europe this week provides an important opportunity to reassure Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania that the U.S. is committed to their security. This reassurance is needed, especially in the wake of the decision to cancel the deployment of missile defense installations in the region, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Christopher S. Chivvis.

    Oct 20, 2009

  • Report

    Report

    RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual

    PAT was designed to facilitate strategic analysis dealing with uncertainty and differences of perspective. It enables an approach to analysis oriented toward assisting high-level decisionmakers to frame their thinking about balance, to construct good multifaceted options for consideration, and to make subsequent choices.

    Oct 20, 2009

  • Commentary

    Commentary

    The Right Move in Europe: Improved Opportunities with NATO, Russia

    Obama's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who call it a capitulation to Russia are wrong, and it plays into Russia's hands to portray the decision in that manner. But the change of course will have to be complemented with more appropriate initiatives, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.

    Sep 22, 2009

  • Commentary

    Commentary

    Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses

    Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the U.S. would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist. It would also defend countries not threatened by Iran, while leaving Iran's more likely victims entirely uncovered, writes James Dobbins.

    Sep 21, 2009