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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Commentary
Machine Learning in Public Policy
Machine learning (ML) can have a significant impact on public policy by modeling complex relationships and augmenting human decisionmaking. But overconfidence in results and incorrectly interpreted algorithms can lead to peril. With interpretability, ML can achieve its promise of more-equitable policy decisions.
Nov 15, 2022
Essay
What Would It Take to Close America's Black-White Wealth Gap?
White Americans hold ten times more total wealth than Black Americans, a disparity that has worsened in recent decades. RAND researchers modeled wealth across millions of households and tested several funding scenarios to see which could most effectively close the gap.
May 9, 2023

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Periodical
RAND Review: May-June 2020
Feature stories explore how military and local governments can work together to prepare their communities for climate change, and the unmet needs of civilians who return from war zones and other hot spots throughout the world.
May 22, 2020
Journal Article
Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making
Robust Decision Making offers a promising complement and possibly future alternative to current prediction-based and scenario approaches that could help planners better manage in today's conditions of fast-paced change.
May 21, 2020
Multimedia
Epidemiological Models and COVID-19
In this Call with the Experts podcast, RAND researchers say new epidemiological models are needed as the country enters a different stage of the COVID-19 crisis, one in which changed behaviors must be taken into account.
May 21, 2020
Report
Building a Broader Evidence Base for Defense Acquisition Policymaking
This report summarizes the case for a broader evidence base for defense acquisition policymaking. It also describes a prototype policy game focused on Middle-Tier Acquisition that researchers developed to enrich the available evidence base.
May 19, 2020
Q&A
The Serious Side of Gaming: Q&A with Yuna Wong
Yuna Wong, codirector of RAND's Center for Gaming, didn't expect to make gaming a focus of her career. In this interview, she discusses what drew her to the field, what makes a good wargame, and her latest research on the dangers of putting too much trust in artificial intelligence.
May 8, 2020
Report
Modeling the Impact of Border-Enforcement Measures
This report offers insights into effects of surveillance technology on border outcomes. The underlying research demonstrated the promise and limits of quasi-experimental statistical methods for evaluating the impact of border-enforcement measures.
May 7, 2020
Commentary
Don't Make the Pandemic Worse with Poor Data Analysis
The need for immediate answers in the face of severe public health and economic distress may create a temptation to relax statistical standards. But urgency should not preclude expert analysis and honest assessments of uncertainty. Mistaken assumptions could lead to counterproductive actions.
May 6, 2020
Multimedia
State-of-the-Art Strategies for Addressing Selection Bias When Comparing Two or More Treatment Groups
This course introduces causal modeling using the potential outcomes framework and propensity score weights to estimate causal effects from observational data.
May 1, 2020
Journal Article
Broken Windows, Broken Zzs: Poor Housing and Neighborhood Conditions Are Associated with Objective Measures of Sleep Health
Sleep is a critical contributor to health and well-being. Sleep disturbances may contribute to racial and socioeconomic disparities in health. Understanding socio-environmental determinants of sleep health disparities is a public health imperative.
Apr 29, 2020
Journal Article
Drivers of Continued Implementation of Cultural Competence in Substance Use Disorder Treatment
This study examines whether the key characteristics of organizational decision makers predicted continued implementation of five different practices that represent organizational cultural competence in one of the most diverse substance use disorder treatment systems in the United States.
Apr 29, 2020
Commentary
The Great Reset: Policing in 2030
Scenarios of possible futures can help planners envision what the future could be, and plan ways to optimize opportunities or mitigate damage. Trends regarding retail operations, hotels, tax revenues, fines and forfeitures, and autonomous vehicles are all happening today. We've imagined how they might extend into the future.
Apr 20, 2020
Report
Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War
Growing concern that U.S. power has been declining relative to that of Russia and China renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power. Which nations have the most? Which are gaining and losing power, and when might these shifts portend conflict?
Apr 15, 2020
Dissertation
Building Better Games for National Security Policy Analysis: Towards a Social Scientific Approach
Proposes an approach to game design grounded in logics of inquiry from the social sciences.
Apr 7, 2020
Journal Article
Inpatient Care Experiences Differ by Preferred Language Within Racial/Ethnic Groups
We described differences in patient experiences of hospital care by preferred language within racial/ethnic groups using HCAHPS survey data. We measured patient-mix adjusted overall, between-and within-hospital differences inpatient experience by language, using linear regression.
Mar 18, 2020
Blog
I'll Take RAND Researchers on Game Shows for $400, Alex
Did you know that RAND researchers have appeared on game shows? Pam Mueller and two teammates took third in the Jeopardy! All-Star Games. Richard Mason has won about $85,000 on many different shows. He and Walter Nelson both won Ben Stein's money.
Mar 16, 2020
News Release
RAND Report Examines Ways to Compare the U.S. Army's Suicide Rate with the General U.S. Population
The U.S. Army should use an expanded set of demographic factors when comparing suicide rates to those in the general population to get a more accurate comparison.
Mar 13, 2020
Commentary
Estimates of COVID-19's Fatality Rate Might Change. And Then Change Again.
With infections of the new coronavirus confirmed in countries around the world, people are following the daily tally of COVID-19 cases, wondering exactly how lethal this new disease is. The truth is, it's hard to know.
Mar 11, 2020
Report
Comparing the Army's Suicide Rate to the General Population's
The U.S. Army has typically compared its suicide rate with that of the general population while adjusting for age, gender, and yearly differences. But there are additional factors related to suicide that should be considered: race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and marital status.
Mar 10, 2020
Journal Article
Implementing an Adaptive Intelligent Tutoring System as an Instructional Supplement
This article studies the implementation of ALEKS (Assessment and LEarning in Knowledge Spaces) in a blended-learning model. This is the first rigorous experimental evaluation of ALEKS in K–12 in-school settings, and the first to gather extensive implementation data.
Mar 10, 2020
Journal Article
Heterogeneous Effects of Early Algebra Across California Middle Schools
In this paper, we argue that, in order to understand the effects of 8th-grade algebra courses, it is essential to explicitly model cross-school variation in the effects of course exposure.
Mar 6, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Stijn Hoorens

Office Director, RAND Europe Brussels, Senior Research Leader

Stijn Hoorens (he/him) is the director of RAND's Brussels Office and a senior research leader at RAND Europe. He has extensive experience in designing and leading policy studies at RAND for a range of international clients. His research interests are broad, but most of his work has revolved…
J. Scott Ashwood

Policy Researcher

J. Scott Ashwood is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He has over twenty years of experience with empirical studies of health care policy. His recent research focused on evaluating state and county interventions to…

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