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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Commentary
Machine Learning in Public Policy
Machine learning (ML) can have a significant impact on public policy by modeling complex relationships and augmenting human decisionmaking. But overconfidence in results and incorrectly interpreted algorithms can lead to peril. With interpretability, ML can achieve its promise of more-equitable policy decisions.
Nov 15, 2022
Essay
What Would It Take to Close America's Black-White Wealth Gap?
White Americans hold ten times more total wealth than Black Americans, a disparity that has worsened in recent decades. RAND researchers modeled wealth across millions of households and tested several funding scenarios to see which could most effectively close the gap.
May 9, 2023

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Journal Article
Understanding the Contribution of UK Public Health Research to Clinical Guidelines: A Bibliometric Analysis
Researchers mapped the contribution of UK research and funders to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence public health guidelines, to understand its strengths, weakness and level of collaboration and coordination across countries.
Sep 24, 2019
Journal Article
Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession
This paper sheds new light on the importance of home production in welfare analyses by focusing on the elasticity of substitution estimated over the retired population, thus holding constant non-work time, but also on the share of spending that is potentially substitutable.
Sep 20, 2019
Journal Article
Optimally Balanced Gaussian Process Propensity Scores for Estimating Treatment Effects
This paper introduces a new approach to estimating the propensity score using Gaussian processes and optimizing hyperparameters with respect to covariate balance.
Sep 19, 2019
Journal Article
Long-term Associations Between Substance Use-Related Media Exposure, Descriptive Norms, and Alcohol Use from Adolescence to Young Adulthood
This study uses advances in longitudinal modeling to extend our understanding of how exposure to substance-related media content, quantity of alcohol use, and perceived descriptive norms about alcohol use are reciprocally related over time.
Sep 19, 2019
Research Brief
Why Understanding 'Will to Fight' Is Crucial
Arguably, will to fight is the most important factor in war. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise. Ignoring will to fight can contribute to tactical or even strategic defeat.
Sep 13, 2019
Report
Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning
This report presents a historical review of defense strategic planning, with a focus on the factors that have shaped defense planning scenarios and strategic analysis in the Department of Defense in an aim to improve scenario use in defense planning.
Sep 5, 2019
Report
Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force: Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management
Managing the flow of Air Force rated officers has become more challenging. In this report, the authors document their efforts to develop a long-term career field planning model for all rated officers across the Total Force.
Sep 4, 2019
Report
The tanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)
This report describes the algorithms used in the tanKer Air Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA) and explains how to use the model. KARMA simulates the extent to which a tanker force can aerially refuel combat aircraft in a denied environment.
Sep 4, 2019
Blog
Synthetic Opioids, Mass Shootings, Prison Education: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, how to address mass shootings, higher education in prison, and more.
Aug 30, 2019
Periodical
RAND Review: September-October 2019
This issue spotlights a wargame designed for young women interested in national security; ethics in scientific research, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence and machine learning; and community citizen science.
Aug 26, 2019
Essay
A Wargame at RAND Puts Teen Girls in Command
RAND analysts developed and hosted a wargame to help young women learn firsthand about national security. It's a lesson in strategy, in the hard realities behind news headlines, but also in agility and resilience. In that, it's not so far removed from the daily life of a teenage girl.
Aug 20, 2019
Journal Article
Climate Vulnerability Mapping: A Systematic Review and Future Prospects
This paper presents the results of a systematic review of 84 studies that map social vulnerability to climate impacts in order to identify common approaches to mapping, evaluate their strengths and limitations, and offer recommendations and future directions for the field.
Aug 6, 2019
Blog
Boris Johnson, Teacher Training, Youth Arrests: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on Boris Johnson's Brexit challenge, how educators feel about their training programs, a spike in youth arrests, and more.
Jul 26, 2019
Report
Measuring Health Care Utilization in Medicare Advantage Encounter Data: Methods, Estimates, and Considerations for Research
This report describes methodologies, estimates, and technical considerations related to measuring health care utilization in Medicare Part C encounter data.
Jul 25, 2019
Report
Independent Review and Assessment of the Air Force Ready Aircrew Program: A Description of the Model Used for Sensitivity Analysis
This report outlines a computational model to measure whether flying units can feasibly meet U.S. Air Force continuation training requirements, presents the model's specifications, and describes how it was used to assess the Ready Aircrew Program.
Jul 15, 2019
Report
NATO's Amphibious Forces: Command and Control of a Multibrigade Alliance Task Force
At the request of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Europe and Africa, RAND researchers facilitated three wargaming events exploring how to leverage and enhance the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s existing amphibious capacity by organizing extant national forces into a coherent multibrigade command and control (C2) structure.
Jun 27, 2019
Report
A new travel demand model for London: Estimation of the mode and destination choice models
RAND Europe and partners were commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) to develop a new strategic travel model for London, the New Demand Model (NDM). This report documents RAND Europe's work to develop new mode-destination choice models.
Jun 19, 2019
Commentary
AVs Could Improve Transportation Access in 'Transit Deserts'
More large U.S. cities are seeing their outer reaches turn into transit deserts, where demand for transportation vastly exceeds supply. Connecting public transit systems with automated vehicles, whether in ride-sharing or shuttle services, could be a solution.
May 31, 2019
Journal Article
Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice
An evaluation of the current state of research and practice in regional pedestrian and bicycle demand modelling for both commute and noncommute trips. The results of the study were connected to planning needs and practice.
May 16, 2019
Journal Article
External Threat, Internal Rivalry, and Alliance Formation
Coalitions of rivals, while formidable against common threats, may find it difficult or impossible to avoid struggles among themselves even if they share an enemy.
May 15, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Thomas Edward Goode

Data Scientist

Tom Goode provides quality, objective analysis in the national security, homeland security, and public safety domains as a data scientist at the RAND Corporation. He supports sponsors in the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and the Intelligence Community by leading…
Mary Lee

Mathematician

Mary Lee (she/her) is a mathematician at the RAND Corporation and inaugural Fellow for the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security. Her research interests include mathematical modeling and simulation of complex systems in the areas of defense/aerospace, cyber policy, and health care and chronic…

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