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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report
Machine Learning in Public Policy
Machine learning (ML) can have a significant impact on public policy by modeling complex relationships and augmenting human decisionmaking. But overconfidence in results and incorrectly interpreted algorithms can lead to peril. With interpretability, ML can achieve its promise of more-equitable policy decisions.
Nov 15, 2022
Essay
What Would It Take to Close America's Black-White Wealth Gap?
White Americans hold ten times more total wealth than Black Americans, a disparity that has worsened in recent decades. RAND researchers modeled wealth across millions of households and tested several funding scenarios to see which could most effectively close the gap.
May 9, 2023

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Journal Article
The Not-So-Marginal Value of Weather Warning Systems
This paper uses conditional variation in the initial broadcast dates of NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR) transmitters to produce cross-sectional and fixed effects estimates of the causal impact of expanding the NWR transmitter network.
Jan 4, 2018
Journal Article
Optimizing Variance-Bias Trade-Off in the TWANG Package for Estimation of Propensity Scores
This discussion highlights potentially meaningful ways to optimize propensity score machine learning methods to allow for minimal bias and less variability.
Dec 28, 2017
Journal Article
Collaborative Targeted Learning Using Regression Shrinkage
While the underlying theory of collaborative targeted minimum loss-based estimation is quite general, current implementations involve greedy stepwise selection of covariates into the exposure model.
Dec 15, 2017
Journal Article
Addressing Geographic Confounding Through Spatial Propensity Scores: A Study of Racial Disparities in Diabetes
A spatial "doubly robust" estimator can minimize geographically related risk difference among racial/ethnic groups in health disparities studies.
Dec 14, 2017
News Release
Reforms to U.S. Child Welfare System Could Reduce Costs and Improve Outcomes
Expanding prevention and treatment services in the U.S. child welfare system could improve the lives of children and reduce total lifetime expenses of such services by 3 to 7 percent.
Dec 11, 2017
Research Brief
Improving Children's Lives: Balancing Investments in Prevention and Treatment in the Child Welfare System
Increasing prevention and treatment improves children's experience and long-term outcomes while paying for itself by reducing lifetime child welfare system costs.
Dec 11, 2017
Report
Improving Child Welfare Outcomes
Policies aimed at increasing prevention and kinship care in the child welfare system improve children's experience and long-term outcomes. This approach is also cost effective, reducing total spending by 3 to 7 percent.
Dec 11, 2017
Journal Article
Accounting for Misclassification in Electronic Health Records-derived Exposures Using Generalized Linear Finite Mixture Models
Exposures derived from EHRs may be misclassified, leading to biased estimates of their association with outcomes of interest: finite mixture models can correct biases with no loss of efficiency.
Dec 7, 2017
Report
Estimation of the National Car Ownership Model for Great Britain: 2011 Base
This report documents work to update the UK Department for Transport's national car ownership models (NATCOP) to reflect a 2011 base year, and to enhance the models to take account of DfT's experience in applying the previous version of the models.
Dec 1, 2017
Commentary
Why the EU Single Market Has Still Not Reached Its Full Potential
The EU Single Market aimed to promote intra-European trade, increase competition, create more jobs and make Europe more attractive to foreign direct investment. The economic benefits of the Single Market are clear, but closer integration requires political buy-in from individual member states and the EU.
Nov 8, 2017
Tool
Interfacing Force-on-Force and Communications Models: MANA and JNE
This report documents an interface between an agent-based force-on-force simulation and a network simulation for the U.S. Army's Cyber Center of Excellence, Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate (CDID), Cyber Battle Lab.
Nov 8, 2017
Commentary
Adding Shots on Target: Wargaming Beyond the Game
Figuring out what the future may look like—and what concepts and technology we should invest in now to prepare—is hard. How can the wargaming community build a cycle of research to help understand what these paths might be?
Oct 9, 2017
Journal Article
Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests
The results of this paper show a strong empirical relevance of subjective survival curves, indicating the importance to take into consideration of this dimension of individual heterogeneity in life cycle models.
Oct 6, 2017
Journal Article
A Synthetic Estimator for the Efficacy of Clinical Trials with All-Or-Nothing Compliance
Synthetic estimation is a promising approach when patient noncompliance is affecting a clinical trial.
Sep 26, 2017
Dissertation
How Transparency and Reproducibility Can Increase Credibility in Policy Analysis: A Case Study of the Minimum Wage Policy Estimate
This dissertation translates to policy analysis solutions developed to address the lack of credibility in the reproducibility crisis in science.
Sep 22, 2017
Tool
Propensity Scores for Repeated Treatments: A Tutorial for the iptw Function in the TWANG Package
This tutorial describes the use of the TWANG package in R to estimate inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs) when one has time varying treatments or sequences of treatments over time.
Sep 14, 2017
Journal Article
No Link Found Between Pets and Kids' Health
Contrary to popular belief, having a dog or cat in the home does not improve the mental or physical health of children. There's no evidence to support the notion that pets can improve child health by increasing physical activity and improving empathy skills.
Aug 29, 2017
Report
The Blended Retirement System: Retention Effects and Continuation Pay Cost Estimates for the Armed Services
This report assesses the effects of the Blended Retirement System on military retention and continuation pay cost for the Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Marine Corps, and Navy and finds that retention can be sustained relative to the legacy system.
Aug 15, 2017
Tool
Assessing Impact to Inform Decisions: A Toolkit on Measures for Policymakers
This toolkit provides a very brief overview of how to identify concepts that should be measured by policymakers, how to evaluate measures, and how to identify new measures that can contribute to better-informed decisions, plans, and assessments.
Jul 25, 2017
Report
Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs)
To help the Air Force better anticipate cost and schedule challenges and manage programs, this study developed a methodology to evaluate the likelihood of cost growth and schedule slip for major defense acquisition projects (MDAPs).
Jul 17, 2017

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Candice Miller

Research Programmer

Candice Miller is a research programmer working primarily in the area of Military Logistics. She provides data analysis, modeling, and optimization using statistical tools such as SAS, database administration tools such as SQL, and scripting tools such as Python. She also works with Microsoft…
Bradley Wilson

Senior Information Scientist

Bradley Wilson is a senior information scientist at RAND with experience in government acquisition and applications of modeling & simulation to solve policy challenges. His research areas include unmanned systems, software acquisition and engineering, information architectures, networks,…

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