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National Security and Terrorism

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RAND conducts a broad array of national security research for the U.S. Department of Defense and allied ministries of defense. Our federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) explore threat assessment, military acquisition, technology, recruitment and personnel management, counterinsurgency, intelligence, and readiness. RAND is a world leader in terrorism research. Studies address such topics as terrorism financing and strategies to undermine violent extremism.

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U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper Visits RAND

Sep 16, 2020

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper visited RAND's Santa Monica headquarters on September 16, 2020. Secretary Esper emphasized the importance of deterring China and the role of the U.S. defense industrial base.
Report

Who Are America's Jihadists?

Sep 11, 2020

U.S. residents who plotted to carry out jihadist attacks at home and those who traveled or attempted to travel to join jihadists abroad represent two dimensions of the terrorist threat. But both types are driven by internal motivations and circumstances as much as they are inspired by external groups.

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Limb Salvage and Recovery After Blast-Related Injury: Proceedings and Expert Findings from a U.S. Department of Defense International State-of-the-Science Meeting

These conference proceedings summarize findings and recommendations of an expert-led meeting that addressed questions about when to emphasize limb salvage over other treatment options -- such as amputation -- for individuals with blast-related injuries.

Jun 11, 2020
Commentary

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now

Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the reliability of the U.S. arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to others to conduct nuclear tests.

Jun 11, 2020
Commentary

Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?

The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Jun 8, 2020
Commentary

The Value of Systematic Assessments of Weapons Procurement

Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and inevitable economic difficulties, national governments should be encouraged to weigh their military requirements in a more cost-effective manner. Countries need to think strategically about the life cycle costs of equipment, not just the original purchase price.

Jun 8, 2020
Commentary

For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat

Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.

Jun 8, 2020
Report

A New RAND Tool Helps Analyze Commercial Air Travel Involving Infected Passengers

Researchers combine case data from Johns Hopkins University with detailed air travel data from the International Air Transport Association to visualize how COVID-19 infections and commercial air travel have interacted to export infection risk across the world.

Jun 5, 2020
Report

By January 31, 2020, at Least 1.5 Daily Infected Passengers Were Originating in China

By late January 2020, infections of COVID-19 were likely being exported from China, via commercial air travel, on a daily basis.

Jun 5, 2020
Report

Air Passenger Transmission Risk to GCC Countries Originated from Outside the Region

Analyses contradict the idea that Iran was most responsible for the spread of COVID-19 to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Jun 5, 2020
Report

COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

Based on officially reported cases in China in January 2020, the odds of the novel coronavirus appearing by January 22, 2020, in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the United States, and Taiwan—as it did—would have been minuscule.

Jun 5, 2020
Report

Decisionmakers Should Base Travel Restrictions on Infection Rates Per Capita and Air Traffic Levels

Countries with modest numbers of confirmed cases can still represent the greatest risks of virus exportation to the United States if those countries have relatively high active case rates per capita and high levels of connectivity to the United States.

Jun 5, 2020
Commentary

Repression in Mozambique Is Stoking an Islamist Insurgency, Risking Wider Unrest

While Southern Africa has largely remained immune from violent extremism, the situation in northern Mozambique threatens to destabilize the country and could potentially spread to other parts of the region. To effectively counter the growing threat, the government could devise a less heavy handed approach.

Jun 5, 2020
Commentary

Competition in Iraq

Tensions between the United States and Iran reached a boiling point in January 2020, when Iranian-backed forces attacked U.S. military and diplomatic facilities on Iraqi soil, and the United States retaliated. Policymakers and experts again asked: Why are we in Iraq? What would happen if we left, and why would it matter?

Jun 5, 2020
News Release

News Release

New Tool Employs Air Travel Data to Predict Global Spread of COVID-19

As the pandemic enters a new phase, punctuated by emerging hot spots and continuing global spread, a new RAND tool allows policymakers to predict regional risks of importing cases of COVID-19.

Jun 5, 2020
Project

Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 with Air Travel Data

As the pandemic enters a new phase, punctuated by emerging hot spots and continuing global spread, a new RAND tool lets policymakers predict regional risks of importing cases of COVID-19.

Jun 5, 2020
Report

Report

Benchmarking Data Use and Analytics in Large, Complex Private-Sector Organizations: Implications for Department of Defense Acquisition

This report examines how the private sector addresses data governance and analytics to inform how the Department of Defense can develop and apply advanced analytics to acquisition challenges.

Jun 4, 2020
Dissertation

Dissertation

Improving the Air Force Medical Service's Expeditionary Medical Support System: A Simulation Approach: Analysis of Mass-Casualty Combat and Disaster Relief Scenarios

Uses a simulation tool to analyze the Air Force's Expeditionary Medical Support System to see how it performs, what changes can be made, and the specific impacts on overall patient outcomes for different patient streams.

Jun 3, 2020
Commentary

The Risks of Autonomous Weapons Systems for Crisis Stability and Conflict Escalation in Future U.S.-Russia Confrontations

While autonomous weapons systems are still in their early development stages, it is worth the time of policymakers to carefully consider whether their putative operational advantages are worth the potential risks of instability and escalation they may raise.

Jun 3, 2020
Commentary

Is the Conflict in Libya a Preview of the Future of Warfare?

The Libyan conflict, now entering its ninth year, could well be a testing ground for how wars will be fought in the future. External nation-states have long interfered in other countries' civil wars, so what is new, exactly, about what is happening in Libya?

Jun 2, 2020
Report

Report

Air Base Defense: Rethinking Army and Air Force Roles and Functions

The gap between the growing cruise and ballistic missile threat to U.S. Air Force bases in Europe and the U.S. capacity and capability to counter the threat is worrisome. This report assesses alternative Air Force courses of action.

May 29, 2020
Report

Report

Air Dominance Through Machine Learning: A Preliminary Exploration of Artificial Intelligence–Assisted Mission Planning

U.S. air superiority is being challenged by global competitors. In this report, the authors prototype a new artificial intelligence system to help develop and evaluate concepts of operations for the air domain.

May 29, 2020

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