North Africa

  • Commercial Book

    Commercial Book

    When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars

    This book examines the security of nuclear arsenals during revolts, coups, and civil wars.

    Apr 11, 2013

  • Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi shout slogans in front of the courthouse and Office of the Attorney General, near Tahrir Square in Cairo, February 22, 2013

    Blog

    In Brief: Jeffrey Martini on Mapping Egyptian Politics

    In this video, RAND Middle East analyst Jeffrey Martini discusses what past electoral performance and the current political context say about the Islamists' strength in Egypt and what it means for the United States.

    Apr 8, 2013

  • A man inks his finger after voting in Ciaro, Egypt.

    Blog

    New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

    While much has been written on the electoral strength of Islamists in Egypt, most of the analysis has been done at the national level, ignoring regional divides within the country. A new report identifies the areas where Islamist parties run strongest, and the areas where non-Islamists are most competitive.

    Mar 22, 2013

  • Report

    Report

    Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

    An analysis of regional voting trends in Egypt—where Islamist parties run strongest, and where non-Islamists are most competitive—indicates that Egypt is headed toward a much more competitive political environment in which Islamists will be increasingly challenged to maintain their electoral edge.

    Mar 22, 2013

  • U.S. soldier provides pens to Iraqi boy

    Commentary

    Unlearning the Lessons of Iraq

    Trepidation about boots-on-the-ground engagement has unnecessarily forestalled even small-scale efforts to repair Libya's fractured security environment....Meanwhile, in Syria, the over-learned lessons of Iraq are taking an even more serious toll, writes Christopher Chivvis.

    Mar 14, 2013

  • French president François Hollande talked about the intervention in Mali during the discussion with MEPs on Feb. 5

    Commentary

    Europe and African Defense

    A successful partnership within Europe, as well as between Europe and the US, to overcome extremism and terrorism in North and North Central Africa could provide allies with a sense of common purpose and a model of unified effort, writes Harold Brown.

    Feb 28, 2013

  • Timbuktu residents rally against control by Islamist group Ansar al-Din

    Commentary

    Al Qaeda Is Weak and Bungling—but Still Dangerous

    The swift march into Mali by a band of Islamist thugs demonstrates an efficient, opportunistic filling of a security vacuum more than an increase in jihadist power or influence, writes Andy Liepman.

    Feb 26, 2013

  • A man waves a Libyan flag during celebrations commemorating the second anniversary of the February 17 revolution in Tripoli February 17, 2013

    Commentary

    Anxious Whispers in Tripoli

    The clock is ticking for Libya's future, writes Christopher Chivvis. Libya's government is dysfunctional, armed militias control much of the country, and the population is increasingly frustrated with the pace of postwar progress.

    Feb 18, 2013

  • streets in Tripoli decorated for the second anniversary of the revolution against Qaddafi's regime

    Commentary

    NATO, US Must Shore Up Libya

    A smaller-scale training mission to help the Libyan government build reliable forces that will answer to the country's elected leadership would do much to help the Libyan state get control over its own territory, writes Christopher Chivvis.

    Feb 15, 2013

  • USARAF commander meets with Mauritanian senior leaders

    Commentary

    What Does the Amenas Attack Mean for U.S. Policy in Africa?

    Coinciding with continuing, contentious hearings on the U.S. response to last September's terrorist attack in Benghazi, the attack on the Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria has elevated a more general debate about the war on terrorism and U.S. policy in Africa, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

    Jan 31, 2013

  • Algerian soldiers stand near the Tiguentourine Gas Plant in In Amenas, 994 miles southeast of Algiers, January 31, 2013

    Commentary

    The Dynamics of the Hostage Situation at Amenas

    Looking at the turmoil in Libya following Qaddafi's removal; the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen; and Syria's ongoing civil war, it is easy to see why the Algerian government would view any manifestation of an Islamist resurgence as a threat that had to be promptly crushed, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

    Jan 30, 2013

  • Armed Islamist fighters race near the Mauritania-Mali border

    Commentary

    The Motivations Behind the Amenas Terrorist Attack

    An attack of this complexity would have required months of reconnaissance, planning, recruiting of inside confederates, and training of participants. France's intervention in Mali was used to “justify” an attack that would likely have taken place anyway, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

    Jan 29, 2013

  • French soldiers prepare for their departure for Mali on January 25, 2013

    Commentary

    Foreign Intervention in Mali Is Libya in Reverse

    France is in Mali not just to prop up a failing state in French Africa, but because Mali was becoming a magnet for jihadis from around the world and Paris rightly feared the country could become the next Afghanistan—only much closer to Europe, writes Christopher Chivvis.

    Jan 25, 2013

  • Touareg rebels in Mali hoist a flag

    Q&A

    The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa

    Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.

    Jan 24, 2013

  • A Tuareg rebel in Mali poses with an assault rifle.

    Commentary

    Hostage Taking Exposes Terror Threat in Africa

    There is a danger in viewing Mali through the prism of counter-terrorism, since the rebel element there is tangled up in movements and groups with a wide variety of interests and motives, ranging from sincere religious conviction to local political rivalries to base economic opportunism, writes Michael Shurkin.

    Jan 18, 2013

  • a huge demonstration marched to the federal palace to protest against the draft constitution and the constitutional decree announced by President Mohamed Morsi

    Commentary

    The Mirage of the Arab Spring

    Like it or not, the United States counts among its allies a number of authoritarian Arab countries, and they are essential partners in protecting its interests, writes Seth G. Jones. The normative hope that liberal democracy may flourish in the future must be balanced by the need to work with governments and societies as they exist today.

    Jan 3, 2013

  • On Dec. 4, 2012, Egyptians marched to the federal palace to reject the constitution referendum

    Commentary

    Egypt's Constitutional Referendum Was an Opportunity Lost

    The Egyptian process left no room for broad deliberation of the constitutional issues, or even for educating citizens about the text of the document on which they were asked to vote, writes Laurel Miller.

    Dec 21, 2012

  • Egyptians protest against the draft constitution and the constitutional decree announced by President Mohamed Morsi

    Commentary

    Political Impasse in Egypt

    If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe, writes Jeffrey Martini.

    Dec 13, 2012

  • Anti-Mursi protesters chant anti-government slogans in Tahrir Square in Cairo November 27, 2012

    Commentary

    Don't Give Up on Egypt's Political Transition Just Yet

    Many transitions around the world in recent decades have been just as chaotic, yet 180-degree returns to autocracy have been exceedingly rare, writes Laurel Miller.

    Nov 28, 2012

  • Arab Spring protestors holding up a symbol from the Tunisian flag

    Blog

    In Brief: Laurel E. Miller and Jeffrey Martini on Democratization in the Arab World

    In this two-minute video blog, RAND's Laurel Miller and Jeffery Martini discuss the challenges ahead for democracy after the Arab Spring as the countries in the Arab world rebuild, work to find a balance between civilian and military authorities, and include Islamist voices in the democratic process.

    Nov 13, 2012

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