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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy
Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.
Jan 6, 2023
Report
The Risks of North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction
In addition to its nuclear weapons, North Korea has amassed chemical, biological, and electromagnetic pulse weapons. It has also created an active cyber hacker force. What can the United States and South Korea do to deter and, if necessary, counter these threats?
Aug 29, 2022

Explore North Korea

Commentary
Contain, Deter, Transform: A Winning Strategy on North Korea
North Korea's missile tests and reported progress in nuclear warhead design have produced a volatile new urgency in U.S. policy. Contain, deter, and transform isn't a radical solution, but it's one that has worked before. This approach could preserve U.S. interests while avoiding war.
Aug 9, 2017
Commentary
Lowdown on Pyeongtaek Garrison
Camp Humphreys will become the major U.S. base in Korea. In terms of North Korean threats, the camp is roughly 100 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone. Some North Korean ballistic missiles could cause damage at Camp Humphreys if it's targeted.
Aug 8, 2017
Commentary
Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea
As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.
Aug 7, 2017
Blog
RAND's Summer Reading List for Congress
Hill staffers can make the most of the Congressional recess with this list of must-read research and commentary on the policy issues they will be addressing this fall.
Aug 4, 2017
Multimedia
North Korea's Continuous Provocations
In this July 17th, 2017 congressional briefing, Bruce W. Bennett, Senior International/Defense Researcher, discusses North Korea's nuclear missile programs, its changing relationship with China, and implications for U.S. policy.
Jul 17, 2017
Commentary
A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option
North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.
Jul 14, 2017
Commentary
How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea
China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.
Jun 20, 2017
Multimedia
China and North Korea
Overview of testimony presented by Andrew Scobell before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on June 8, 2017.
Jun 8, 2017
Testimony
A Close Look at China's Relationship with North Korea
North Korea has been a near-constant headache for China since the early 1990s. In light of Pyongyang's recent provocations, what are Beijing's interests on the Korean Peninsula? And what is the potential for U.S.-China cooperation on the issue?
Jun 8, 2017
Blog
Conversations at RAND: Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.
Jun 8, 2017
Commentary
End the Korean War, Finally
Sixty-four years ago, the Korean War was suspended by a cease-fire. A peace treaty was never signed. Standing ready to formally end this old war may be the key to dismantling North Korea's nuclear program without starting a new one.
Jun 8, 2017
Commentary
Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?
President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.
Jun 2, 2017
Multimedia
Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
In this Events @ RAND podcast, RAND's Bruce Bennett, an expert in Northeast Asian military issues, discusses efforts by the U.S., its allies, and China to defuse the current situation and halt North Korea's development of nuclear weapons.
Jun 1, 2017
News Release
Unification Could Be Good for North Korea
While Korean unification is a major issue in South Korea, North Korean propaganda suggests that an ROK-led unification would be a disaster for North Korean elites, using this fear to bind elites closer to the regime and make them more hostile and resistant to ideas of unification. Without changing those views of North Korean elites it is difficult to imagine how peaceful unification could be achieved.
Apr 27, 2017
Report
How to Prepare North Korean Elites for Unification
North Korean propaganda suggests that unification led by the South would be a disaster for Northern elites. Unless the elites are convinced otherwise, peaceful unification may be impossible. What could South Korea do to help them feel better about, or at least less resistant to, unification?
Apr 27, 2017
Multimedia
Direction of Foreign Policy in Trump Administration's First 100 Days
In this Call with the Experts, RAND senior fellow, James Dobbins, as well as RAND senior international policy analyst, Linda Robinson, discuss the Trump administration's emerging foreign policy strategy as it approaches the symbolic 100-day milestone.
Apr 26, 2017
Commentary
How Trump Can Deter Russia and All of America's Other Enemies
There is no such thing as blanket deterrence. Rather, one must deter a specific adversary from taking a specific action. A holistic approach should include ramping up U.S. capabilities to anticipate emerging threats, including events that are unlikely to happen.
Apr 26, 2017
Commentary
Despite Promising Signs, China's North Korea Policy Unchanged
Recent U.S. statements and public discussions on China's willingness to punish or otherwise influence North Korea in a direction favorable to U.S. interests have been optimistic. But China's continued support of the North should temper U.S. expectations.
Apr 24, 2017
Commentary
China's Role in Dissuading North Korea from a Chemical Weapons Attack
North Korea's brash pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and disregard for chemical weapons norms are enormously troubling. China's engagement will be essential in convincing Kim Jong Un that the use of chemical weapons is a red line that cannot be crossed.
Apr 24, 2017
Multimedia
Media Conference Call on the North Korea Crisis
RAND experts Bruce Bennett, Mike Mazarr, and Andrew Scobell host a conference call with news media discussing the latest developments between North Korea, the United States, and China. Senior Media Relations Officer Khorshied Samad moderates the call.
Apr 20, 2017

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

Policy Researcher

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on Asian security issues. He is also a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, China-North Korea…
King Mallory

Director, RAND Center for Global Risk and Security

King Mallory is the director of the Center for Global Risk and Security at the RAND Corporation. He is a former CEO with substantial diplomatic, research, strategic planning, and execution experience. Previously, he was national security policy coordinator for the presidential campaign of Ohio…

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