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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership
There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.
Sep 13, 2023
Commentary
A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea
There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?
Mar 2, 2023

Explore North Korea

Commentary
Is the North Korean Regime Out of Control?
Evidence points to North Korean involvement in the Sony hack. But it's impossible to know if top regime leaders sanctioned the attack or if it was carried out by another part of the government without their knowledge and consent. An unauthorized hack would only add to Kim Jong-un's worry over his regime's instability.
Dec 23, 2014
Commentary
How Should the U.S. Respond to the Sony Hack?
North Korea is likely testing the United States and its cyber community to see where vulnerabilities may exist. So this is not just an issue of how Sony Pictures responds—this is an issue of how the United States responds.
Dec 11, 2014
Commentary
N.K. WMDs Carry Catastrophic Potential
The failure of the United States and South Korea to prevent North Korea from gaining significant quantities of weapons of mass destruction saddles those governments with serious military responsibilities, should North Korea go to war or should its government collapse.
Nov 19, 2014
Multimedia
RAND Experts Discuss Extended Absence of Kim Jong-un
RAND researchers Bruce Bennett and Andrew Scobell hosted a media conference call on Thursday, October 9 to discuss the extended absence of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the regional implications of a sudden change in North Korea's government, and China's role in the region. Media relations officer Joe Dougherty moderated the call.
Oct 9, 2014
Report
Pentagon Should Elevate the Importance of Eliminating WMDs in Operational Planning
Joint force commanders should carefully consider requirements for eliminating weapons of mass destruction in their contingency and operational planning. And DoD policy decisions involving Army force structure should consider the conventional ground force requirements of such operations.
Sep 24, 2014
Commentary
What Does North Korea Want?
Currently, three U.S. citizens — Matthew Todd Miller, Jeffrey Fowle, and Kenneth Bae — are being detained in North Korea. It is likely that North Korea wants someone like a former U.S. president to come to North Korea instead of U.S. Ambassador Bob King, whose visits were cancelled.
Sep 18, 2014
Commentary
Why Japan's Military Shift Is Necessary for South Korea
With its collective self-defense policy, Japan assumes its responsibilities to support the defense of South Korea and regional security in general, an appropriate action given the economic and other independencies of the regional countries.
Jul 7, 2014
Commentary
North Korea's Latest Military Operations
Whatever form of chest thumping comes next from Kim, it is clear that his goal is to put forward the appearance of strength and power, when in reality he faces instability at home and scorn from the international community.
Apr 8, 2014
Testimony
Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse
If the North Korean government were to suddenly collapse, the consequences could jeopardize regional security in Northeast Asia and undermine U.S. interests. Preparation is needed now to convince the North Korean elites and others that South Korea-led unification in the aftermath of a collapse will be in their interests.
Jan 29, 2014
Commentary
A Death in the Family
The ruthless purge of 67-year-old Jang Sung Taek appears to be the culmination of a power struggle that makes 30 year-old Kim Jong Un the undisputed supreme leader of North Korea.
Jan 22, 2014
Q&A
Bruce Bennett Discusses North Korea on Reddit.com
To shed some light on Kim Jong-un's possible motivations—and to discuss what might happen if the North Korean government suddenly collapsed the way East Germany's did—RAND's Bruce Bennett took part in a question and answer session on Reddit.com.
Nov 14, 2013
Multimedia
Preparing for North Korean Regime Collapse
In this October 2013 Congressional Briefing, defense analyst Bruce Bennett discusses the possible consequences of a North Korean government collapse, including civil war in the north; a humanitarian crisis; the potential use and proliferation of the nation's chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons; and conflict with China.
Oct 16, 2013
Testimony
The Challenge of North Korean Biological Weapons
While there is evidence of North Korean biological weapons, little is known with certainty about them and how North Korea would use them. Bruce Bennett addresses the nature of the potential North Korean biological weapon threat and how the ROK and United States should prepare to counter potential attacks.
Oct 11, 2013
Blog
North Korea's Coming Collapse
The North Korean government could collapse at any time, setting off a humanitarian disaster of historic proportions, RAND senior defense analyst Bruce Bennett told a gathering of journalists in Washington.
Sep 20, 2013
News Release
U.S., Republic of Korea and Allies Should Prepare for Eventual Collapse of North Korean Government
Like the collapse of East Germany, the collapse of North Korea could occur suddenly and with little warning. But a North Korean collapse could be far more dangerous and disastrous than the actual collapse of East Germany, especially given the inadequate preparations for it.
Sep 19, 2013
Report
U.S., ROK, and Allies Should Prepare for Eventual Collapse of North Korean Government
Like the collapse of East Germany, the collapse of North Korea could occur suddenly and with little warning. But a North Korean collapse could be far more dangerous and disastrous than the actual collapse of East Germany, especially given the inadequate preparations for it.
Sep 19, 2013
Commentary
4 Factors to Consider in US Options for North Korea
The US, working closely with its allies, should approach each potential conflict with North Korea in its own context, sculpting policy that draws on experience as well as observations made through research, writes Lowell Schwartz.
Jun 12, 2013
Commentary
North Korea Could Fall Faster Than We Think
The United States, South Korea and their allies would be well advised to factor in the possibility that North Korea could collapse in a fit of revolt and economic decay at any time, just as East Germany did, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 3, 2013
Journal Article
North Korea: Preparing for the End
North Korea is now the most dangerous security challenge facing the United States.
Jun 1, 2013
Commentary
Enhancing Security Cooperation at the Korea-U.S. Summit
The U.S.-South Korean Extended Deterrence Policy Committee was setup to deter North Korean threats. The upcoming summit should ratify the progress of this effort, reassuring both the Korean and U.S. people that these threats are being managed.
May 7, 2013

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Christian Curriden

Defense Analyst

Christian Curriden is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. His work at RAND has mostly focused on Chinese and Korean issues, especially PLA research and development, as well as artificial intelligence applications in the PLA. His research has also touched on proxy wars, the Chinese science…
John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…

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