Skip to page content

North Korea

Featured

North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy
Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.
Jan 6, 2023
Report
The Risks of North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction
In addition to its nuclear weapons, North Korea has amassed chemical, biological, and electromagnetic pulse weapons. It has also created an active cyber hacker force. What can the United States and South Korea do to deter and, if necessary, counter these threats?
Aug 29, 2022

Explore North Korea

Journal Article
South Korea: Capable Now, Questions for the Future
South Korea is a capable US military ally. It faces a substantial military threat from North Korea, especially North Korea's WMD. South Korea's demographics are shrinking its military, challenging South Korea's ability to defend itself in the future.
Nov 3, 2020
Blog
'Vaccine Nationalism,' a Pandemic Election, Women in the Workforce: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why 'vaccine nationalism' could be costly, how Americans feel about voting during a pandemic, why women are leaving the workforce, and more.
Oct 30, 2020
Report
Is There a Better Way to Negotiate with North Korea?
The failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization talks calls for a different approach. A new method that addresses the reasons for past failures and reflects current realities offers promising ways forward.
Oct 26, 2020
Commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program. But it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
Sep 28, 2020
Commentary
To Mr. Suga, the New Prime Minister, Three Top Priorities Presented by U.S. Researchers
Understanding that there will be domestic pressures to focus on economic recovery and COVID-19 responses, what then might the next prime minister of Japan prioritize in the foreign policy and defense domains? There are three critical issues that could be top priorities for the next administration.
Sep 15, 2020
Commentary
What Abe Leaves Behind
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's unexpected resignation leaves several of his policy priorities unfinished, including revising Japan's constitution and finalizing a peace treaty with Russia. But the security issues facing Japan and the region remain unchanged, and Abe's successor may be forced to confront several of them on his very first day.
Sep 11, 2020
Report
How Does North Korean Leadership Make Decisions?
With talks between the United States and North Korea at a standstill, U.S. policymakers must consider what the regime might do next and know what signs or decisions to look for. Will Kim open the DPRK economy? What if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula? And what could lead to the use of nuclear weapons?
Aug 20, 2020
Commentary
In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead
North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.
Aug 17, 2020
Blog
Preparing for a COVID-19 Election, Hurricane Response, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on preparing for a COVID-19 election, how the pandemic is affecting artists, North Korea's deadly artillery, and more.
Aug 7, 2020
Report
A North Korean Artillery Attack Could Kill Thousands in Only an Hour
North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers. Five attack scenarios show that casualties could range from 4,500 to more than 200,000. The United States and South Korea should avoid military provocation cycles that could lead to these attacks.
Aug 6, 2020
Multimedia
Rising Tensions Between the Two Koreas
RAND policy analyst Soo Kim describes how the United States, South Korea, and Japan might respond to North Korea's recent provocations.
Jul 27, 2020
Blog
Reopenining Schools, Affordable Housing, Unemployment: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the debate about reopening schools, how a decline in commercial real estate demand could help address the housing crisis, challenges facing the U.S. unemployment system, and more.
Jul 24, 2020
Commentary
Moon's North Korea Vision Up in Smoke? Not So Fast…
Even after North Korea's demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office, it appears that South Korean President Moon Jae-in will continue to prioritize improving inter-Korean relations. What are the implications of this strategy?
Jul 20, 2020
Commentary
Will the Real Kim Yo Jong Stand Up?
It's difficult to get reliable information about North Korea's leadership. This is especially true of Kim Jong Un's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong. Nonetheless, Washington should strive to learn as much as possible about someone who could become the leader of a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Jul 6, 2020
Commentary
Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?
The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.
Jun 29, 2020
Commentary
For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat
Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.
Jun 8, 2020
Commentary
North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom
Kim Jong Un's return, while it leaves much to be desired in the way of explanation, should send one message to the international audience: North Korea's fate rests still in the hands of Kim Jong Un. And judging by appearances in recent days, Kim does not appear to intend to change the course of his strategy to reduce tensions with the United States.
May 19, 2020
Commentary
North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization
Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?
May 8, 2020
Blog
A Proposed COVID-19 Cure, Economic Decline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the unintended consequences of a proposed COVID-19 treatment, another wave of economic destruction, North Korea after Kim Jong Un, and more.
May 1, 2020
Multimedia
The Future of the North Korean Regime
Soo Kim, policy analyst with the RAND Corporation, discusses the future of the North Korean regime.
Apr 28, 2020

Previous
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next

RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Christian Curriden

Defense Analyst

Christian Curriden is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. His work at RAND has mostly focused on Chinese and Korean issues, especially PLA research and development, as well as artificial intelligence applications in the PLA. His research has also touched on proxy wars, the Chinese science…
Naoko Aoki

Associate Political Scientist

Naoko Aoki is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation. She specializes in East Asian security issues. She has written about Japanese foreign and security policies, the North Korean nuclear problem, American alliances in Asia, and nuclear dynamics in the region. Prior to joining…

Explore Our People »