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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership
There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.
Sep 13, 2023
Commentary
A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea
There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?
Mar 2, 2023

Explore North Korea

Commentary
Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation
The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.
May 6, 2021
Blog
Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.
Apr 23, 2021
Commentary
Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim's Atomic Appetite? Think Again
Coronavirus or not, Kim Jong-un's appetite for nuclear and missile bargaining with the United States remains intact. This likely spells further weapons demonstrations from North Korea, with potentially longer-range missile demonstrations to test Washington's resolve in its nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.
Apr 20, 2021
Commentary
COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices
Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?
Apr 20, 2021
Blog
COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to
Apr 16, 2021
Multimedia
The North Korean Nuclear Threat
In this Call with the Experts podcast, Jeffrey Hiday, director of Media Relations at RAND, is joined by Bruce Bennett, RAND adjunct international/defense researcher, Bruce Bechtol, professor of political science at Angelo State University, and Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation, for a discussion about the North Korean nuclear threat.
Apr 12, 2021
Commentary
Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons
There is a growing gap between North Korea's nuclear weapon threat and South Korean and U.S. capabilities to defeat it. Because these capabilities will take years to develop, attention should be focused on where the threat could be in the mid to late 2020s and strategy options that could be employed to counter it.
Apr 12, 2021
Report
The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Rapid Change on the Korean Peninsula: Proceedings from a Pair of Conferences
Few areas of the world are more geostrategically important to the United States and Japan than the Korean Peninsula. These conference proceedings explore how changes on the Korean Peninsula are seen by observers in Japan and the United States.
Mar 26, 2021
News Release
Interest in a U.S. Grand Strategy of Restraint May Be Growing, So Advocates Need to Provide More Details
As the Biden Administration takes over, some U.S. policymakers have expressed interest in a new approach to America's role in the world: a realist grand strategy of restraint under which the U.S. would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence and end or renegotiate some security commitments.
Jan 22, 2021
Report
A U.S. Grand Strategy of Restraint
Some U.S. policymakers have expressed interest in a realist grand strategy of restraint. Under this approach, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end or renegotiate some security commitments. What are the policy implications of embarking down this path?
Jan 21, 2021
Multimedia
Strategies for Pushing North Korea Toward Denuclearization
RAND policy analyst Soo Kim and RAND senior defense analyst Bruce Bennett discuss strategies for pushing the Kim administration toward denuclearization.
Jan 15, 2021
Blog
Schools and COVID-19, Health Care Resources, Leaving Afghanistan: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on allocating scarce but lifesaving resources during a pandemic, insights from America’s educators, the lopsided telework revolution, and more.
Nov 20, 2020
Commentary
North Korea: Seeking Influence on President-Elect Biden
North Korea's past post-election provocation patterns suggest that the United States might have days to weeks before the North's first provocations. The Biden team might consider actions to convince Kim Jong-un that provocations will hurt him.
Nov 17, 2020
Journal Article
South Korea: Capable Now, Questions for the Future
South Korea is a capable US military ally. It faces a substantial military threat from North Korea, especially North Korea's WMD. South Korea's demographics are shrinking its military, challenging South Korea's ability to defend itself in the future.
Nov 3, 2020
Blog
'Vaccine Nationalism,' a Pandemic Election, Women in the Workforce: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why 'vaccine nationalism' could be costly, how Americans feel about voting during a pandemic, why women are leaving the workforce, and more.
Oct 30, 2020
Report
Is There a Better Way to Negotiate with North Korea?
The failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization talks calls for a different approach. A new method that addresses the reasons for past failures and reflects current realities offers promising ways forward.
Oct 26, 2020
Commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program. But it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
Sep 28, 2020
Commentary
To Mr. Suga, the New Prime Minister, Three Top Priorities Presented by U.S. Researchers
Understanding that there will be domestic pressures to focus on economic recovery and COVID-19 responses, what then might the next prime minister of Japan prioritize in the foreign policy and defense domains? There are three critical issues that could be top priorities for the next administration.
Sep 15, 2020
Commentary
What Abe Leaves Behind
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's unexpected resignation leaves several of his policy priorities unfinished, including revising Japan's constitution and finalizing a peace treaty with Russia. But the security issues facing Japan and the region remain unchanged, and Abe's successor may be forced to confront several of them on his very first day.
Sep 11, 2020
Report
How Does North Korean Leadership Make Decisions?
With talks between the United States and North Korea at a standstill, U.S. policymakers must consider what the regime might do next and know what signs or decisions to look for. Will Kim open the DPRK economy? What if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula? And what could lead to the use of nuclear weapons?
Aug 20, 2020

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

Policy Researcher

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on Asian security issues. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, China-North Korea relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Korean Peninsula and…
John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…

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