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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy
Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.
Jan 6, 2023
Report
The Risks of North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction
In addition to its nuclear weapons, North Korea has amassed chemical, biological, and electromagnetic pulse weapons. It has also created an active cyber hacker force. What can the United States and South Korea do to deter and, if necessary, counter these threats?
Aug 29, 2022

Explore North Korea

Commentary
North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'
With rumors swirling that Kim Jong Un has suffered a health crisis, some are already asking who might succeed him as leader of North Korea. But who is not the most important question. What will matter more is what the new regime does to establish its legitimacy and how the United States and its allies respond.
Apr 28, 2020
Commentary
Why We Really Don't Know What Happens If Kim Jong Un Dies
The potential changes in the North Korean regime pose more questions than they answer. How prepared are observers and keen watchers from the “outside world” for a North Korean contingency? Should there be a power vacuum in Pyongyang, will U.S. policy toward the DPRK remain largely as-is?
Apr 27, 2020
Blog
Medical Supply Shortfalls, Parenting Through the Pandemic, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on reducing medical supply shortfalls, understanding who's in charge during a pandemic, North Korea's nuclear blackmail, and more.
Apr 17, 2020
Commentary
The Coronavirus and North Korea: Is There a Cure for Kim's Nuclear Blackmail?
Despite the pandemic, North Korea's recent activities suggest that Kim Jong Un will likely stay the course in his ongoing campaign against the United States and the broader Northeast Asia region.
Apr 13, 2020
Commentary
U.S.–South Korea OPCON Transition: The Element of Timing
As Washington and Seoul continue to examine the feasibility and conditions for wartime operational control transition, decisionmakers will likely face political pressure on timing. It may well be to the advantage of both allies that the determination of the transfer be driven by a hard, thorough diagnosis of military capabilities against emerging threats.
Apr 2, 2020
Commentary
North Korea: Denying COVID-19
According to Pyongyang, North Korea has not yet suffered any cases of COVID-19. That would be surprising, since it is a neighbor and extensive trading partner of China. There are signs that this claim is yet another North Korean deception.
Apr 2, 2020
Commentary
Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020
North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.
Jan 27, 2020
Commentary
North Korea: Selling Political Deception
Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.
Jan 3, 2020
Blog
Preventing the Winter Blues, North Korea, Opioids: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how to ward off the winter blues, Kim Jong Un's latest threat, how to spend opioid settlement funds, and more.
Jan 3, 2020
Commentary
Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'
North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.
Dec 24, 2019
Commentary
North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations
North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.
Dec 20, 2019
Commentary
South Korea Should Consider Sticking with Intelligence-Sharing Pact with Japan
South Korea announced its intent to withdraw from an intelligence-sharing arrangement with Japan. There are four reasons that Seoul should strongly consider reversing course.
Nov 5, 2019
Blog
The Syria Withdrawal, Climate Policy, Drones: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the effects of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, one expert's take on climate policy, how drones could help get blood to soldiers who need it, and more.
Oct 25, 2019
Commentary
U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too
An effective way to bend North Korea toward denuclearization may be exerting consistent and targeted pressure on China. Diminishing Beijing's relevance isn't a cure-all. But it could pierce Kim's illusion of invincibility and place him in a bind to make some concessions.
Oct 18, 2019
Report
Are States Using Cyber Operations to Coerce Others?
Cyber operations have become another tool of statecraft. But have any cyber operations sponsored by Russia, China, Iran, or North Korea met the definition of cyber coercion? If so, how? And what should the United States do to respond?
Sep 17, 2019
Essay
A Wargame at RAND Puts Teen Girls in Command
RAND analysts developed and hosted a wargame to help young women learn firsthand about national security. It's a lesson in strategy, in the hard realities behind news headlines, but also in agility and resilience. In that, it's not so far removed from the daily life of a teenage girl.
Aug 20, 2019
Commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
Aug 12, 2019
Blog
Youth Sports, Autonomous Vehicles, Mental Health: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why low-income children aren't playing sports, who's liable when autonomous vehicles get hacked, supporting children with mental health issues, and more.
Jul 19, 2019
Commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
Jul 15, 2019
Blog
DMZ Meeting, Students with Disabilities, Iran: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on Trump's meeting with Kim Jong Un, supporting students with disabilities, the flawed logic of a proportional response in Iran, and more.
Jul 5, 2019

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

Policy Researcher

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on Asian security issues. He is also a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, China-North Korea…
King Mallory

Director, RAND Center for Global Risk and Security

King Mallory is the director of the Center for Global Risk and Security at the RAND Corporation. He is a former CEO with substantial diplomatic, research, strategic planning, and execution experience. Previously, he was national security policy coordinator for the presidential campaign of Ohio…

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