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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Report

A North Korean Artillery Attack Could Kill Thousands in Only an Hour

Aug 6, 2020

North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers. Five attack scenarios show that casualties could range from 4,500 to more than 200,000. The United States and South Korea should avoid military provocation cycles that could lead to these attacks.
Report

Is There a Better Way to Negotiate with North Korea?

Oct 26, 2020

The failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization talks calls for a different approach. A new method that addresses the reasons for past failures and reflects current realities offers promising ways forward.

Explore North Korea

Commentary

Beyond Strategic Patience with North Korea: What Comes Next?

North Korea says that nuclear weapons are essential to regime survival. The United States should figure out how to persuade the North Korean regime that it is less likely to survive by posing a nuclear threat than by cooperating with the international community.

Sep 8, 2017
Periodical

RAND Review: September-October 2017

This issue highlights recent RAND research on North Korea; RAND's future workspace pilot project; and insights on the post--Arab Spring experience in the Middle East.

Aug 24, 2017
Commentary

How to Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea

The United States brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago, but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iran nuclear deal.

Aug 22, 2017
Essay

Understanding North Korea

How should the United States respond to North Korea's provocative behavior? Even the best military options could be cataclysmically bad, but there are nonmilitary options to convince Kim Jong Un that the costs of his provocations outweigh any benefits.

Aug 18, 2017
Multimedia

Tensions Between North Korea and the U.S.

RAND experts Bruce Bennett, Andrew Scobell, and J.D. Williams host a conference call with news media discussing the rising tensions between North Korea and the United States. Senior Media Relations Officer Khorshied Samad moderates the call.

Aug 16, 2017
Commentary

Dealing with Global Hot Spots in Times of Domestic Upheaval

The United States faces growing dangers of war in three parts of the globe: North Korea, Syria, and the South China Sea. How will it manage any—let alone all—of them, especially with political turmoil at the highest levels at home?

Aug 14, 2017
Commentary

The North Korea Standoff: Have We Been Here Before?

How the United States responded to China's nuclear weapons program last century can provide lessons for today's debate about North Korea. For instance, the conclusion that the only option is deterrence is still sound.

Aug 14, 2017
Commentary

How Did North Korea Get Its Nuclear Capabilities So Far So Fast?

The recent North Korean missile tests and other provocations have sent shock waves through the global national security community and heightened tensions throughout the region. How has North Korea increased its missile capabilities so dramatically in such a short period of time?

Aug 14, 2017
Commentary

Contain, Deter, Transform: A Winning Strategy on North Korea

North Korea's missile tests and reported progress in nuclear warhead design have produced a volatile new urgency in U.S. policy. Contain, deter, and transform isn't a radical solution, but it's one that has worked before. This approach could preserve U.S. interests while avoiding war.

Aug 9, 2017
Commentary

Lowdown on Pyeongtaek Garrison

Camp Humphreys will become the major U.S. base in Korea. In terms of North Korean threats, the camp is roughly 100 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone. Some North Korean ballistic missiles could cause damage at Camp Humphreys if it's targeted.

Aug 8, 2017
Commentary

Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea

As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.

Aug 7, 2017
Blog

RAND's Summer Reading List for Congress

Hill staffers can make the most of the Congressional recess with this list of must-read research and commentary on the policy issues they will be addressing this fall.

Aug 4, 2017
Multimedia

North Korea's Continuous Provocations

In this July 17th, 2017 congressional briefing, Bruce W. Bennett, Senior International/Defense Researcher, discusses North Korea's nuclear missile programs, its changing relationship with China, and implications for U.S. policy.

Jul 17, 2017
Commentary

A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option

North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.

Jul 14, 2017
Commentary

How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea

China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.

Jun 20, 2017
Multimedia

China and North Korea

Overview of testimony presented by Andrew Scobell before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on June 8, 2017.

Jun 8, 2017
Testimony

A Close Look at China's Relationship with North Korea

North Korea has been a near-constant headache for China since the early 1990s. In light of Pyongyang's recent provocations, what are Beijing's interests on the Korean Peninsula? And what is the potential for U.S.-China cooperation on the issue?

Jun 8, 2017
Blog

Conversations at RAND: Security Tensions in Northeast Asia

The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.

Jun 8, 2017
Commentary

End the Korean War, Finally

Sixty-four years ago, the Korean War was suspended by a cease-fire. A peace treaty was never signed. Standing ready to formally end this old war may be the key to dismantling North Korea's nuclear program without starting a new one.

Jun 8, 2017
Commentary

Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?

President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.

Jun 2, 2017

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

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