Politics and Government

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  • Report

    Impressions and Appraisals in Hong Kong

    Impressions from the author gleaned during a trip through Hong Kong circa 1962.

    Sep 19, 2017

  • Report

    Comments on the Wolf-Leites Manuscript: Rebellion and Authority

    June 1968 comments from Albert Wolsteter on the Wolf-Leites Manuscript: ’Rebellion and Authority’.

    Sep 15, 2017

  • A soldier engages a target during a convoy live fire exercise at Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, on July 7, 2017

    Report

    What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts? What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

    Until the wars in Syria and Ukraine, armed conflict in the world had been decreasing for decades. Future projections show continued decline, but the U.S. military has an important role in deterring conflict, underpinning peacekeeping coalitions, and possibly in responding to proxy wars by other powers.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

    Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

    This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict

    This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto before the Emerging Market and Developing Countries meeting during the BRICS Summit, in Xiamen, China, September 5, 2017

    Commentary

    What Were China's Objectives in the Doklam Dispute?

    The biggest Chinese concern in the Himalayas might be with the future of the 82-year-old Dalai Lama. China intends to select his successor. A high-profile scare on the Doklam Plateau may have been intended to send India an implicit message not to repeat its decision to shelter the Dalai Lama in 1959.

    Sep 8, 2017

  • Headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland

    Report

    Measuring the Health of the International Order

    The liberal international order that has been in place since 1945 is relatively stable but is threatened by geopolitical and domestic socioeconomic trends that call into question the order's assumptions. U.S. support and engagement over the coming decade will be essential.

    Sep 5, 2017

  • An Afghan tribal elder speaks to key leaders with the National Police, Afghan National Army, and Task Force Southwest during a shura at Camp Nolay, Helmand, Afghanistan, May 25, 2017

    Commentary

    President Trump's Recommitment to Nation-Building in Afghanistan

    In his speech on Afghanistan, President Trump maintained his stance against nation-building. But like President Obama's policy, the refreshed approach hinges on the U.S. developing Afghan government capabilities to fight the Taliban, provide for the country's long-term security, and serve as a counterterrorism partner.

    Aug 30, 2017

  • World map jigsaw puzzle

    Report

    Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

    The collection of rules, norms, and institutions that came to be understood as the international order after World War II has come under increasing strain. What alternative visions for the future order could respond to changes in politics? And what role could the United States play in each?

    Aug 28, 2017

  • Afghanistan's new President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai (2nd L) stands next to Afghanistan's Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah (L) and his deputies as he takes the oath during his inauguration as president in Kabul September 29, 2014

    Commentary

    What Afghanistan Needs to Move Forward: A Political Solution

    Although the U.S. military's role in maintaining stability has been crucial, a real solution needs to consider Afghan politics first. The United States and the international community should push for parliamentary elections to build confidence between the government and the people.

    Aug 24, 2017

  • A view of the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan, where nearly 80,000 Syrian refugees were living in March 2017

    Q&A

    The Post-Arab Spring Experience: Q&A with Shelly Culbertson

    It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.

    Aug 23, 2017

  • Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif greets United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, July 17, 2017

    Commentary

    How We Can Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea

    The U.S. brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iranian nuclear deal.

    Aug 22, 2017

  • U.S. President Donald Trump announces his strategy for the war in Afghanistan during an address to the nation from Fort Myer, Virginia, August 21, 2017

    Commentary

    Trump's New Afghanistan Strategy: Governing from the Center?

    The president has embraced a national security establishment strategy for Afghanistan with a veneer that does not alter its essence. The result is likely to disappoint some of his supporters and to be criticized by his opponents, but it will also secure a measure of bipartisan support.

    Aug 22, 2017

  • Report

    Civic Engagement: How Can Digital Technology Encourage Greater Engagement in Civil Society?

    This Perspective explores the potential impacts that digital technologies may have on the nature of civic engagement and political processes, providing an overview of the opportunities and risks associated with the use of these technologies.

    Aug 7, 2017

  • A checkers game depicting Saudi Arabia vs. Iran

    Commentary

    State Competition, Not Sectarianism, Key Driver of Middle East Politics

    Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.

    Aug 3, 2017

  • An American flag on a fence in the prairie

    Commentary

    American Isolationism Isn't New

    Isolationism is a recurring temptation of American foreign policy. Responding to new and unforeseen challenges, however, the United States has repeatedly resisted that temptation and risen to the demands of global leadership. Is it different today?

    Aug 1, 2017

  • A Chinese naval ship departs after a visit in Davao city, southern Philippines, May 2, 2017

    Q&A

    Enhancing China's Status as a Great Power

    China is investing heavily in its military modernization program as it aims to extend its power in the region as well as globally. How will China's growing ability to project power affect U.S. regional goals?

    Aug 1, 2017

  • U.S. Marines, British and Afghan troops attend a handover ceremony in Helmand province, October 26, 2014

    Commentary

    A Peace 'Surge' to End War in Afghanistan

    President Trump has no easy options in Afghanistan. A surge of U.S. commitment to negotiating a political settlement would not remove all the obstacles, but it is a prerequisite.

    Jul 24, 2017

  • A businessman looking out at the modern London skyline

    Commentary

    Finding the Common Ground: Building a Brexit Around Trade and Single Market Access

    The priority for the UK government during Brexit negotiations should be access to the single market and free trade deals with countries outside the EU. This would build on the common ground felt by the majority of Britons about what they feel are the most valuable aspects of the UK's future relationship with Europe.

    Jul 14, 2017