Until the wars in Syria and Ukraine, armed conflict in the world had been decreasing for decades. Future projections show continued decline, but the U.S. military has an important role in deterring conflict, underpinning peacekeeping coalitions, and possibly in responding to proxy wars by other powers.
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
The biggest Chinese concern in the Himalayas might be with the future of the 82-year-old Dalai Lama. China intends to select his successor. A high-profile scare on the Doklam Plateau may have been intended to send India an implicit message not to repeat its decision to shelter the Dalai Lama in 1959.
The liberal international order that has been in place since 1945 is relatively stable but is threatened by geopolitical and domestic socioeconomic trends that call into question the order's assumptions. U.S. support and engagement over the coming decade will be essential.
In his speech on Afghanistan, President Trump maintained his stance against nation-building. But like President Obama's policy, the refreshed approach hinges on the U.S. developing Afghan government capabilities to fight the Taliban, provide for the country's long-term security, and serve as a counterterrorism partner.
The collection of rules, norms, and institutions that came to be understood as the international order after World War II has come under increasing strain. What alternative visions for the future order could respond to changes in politics? And what role could the United States play in each?
Although the U.S. military's role in maintaining stability has been crucial, a real solution needs to consider Afghan politics first. The United States and the international community should push for parliamentary elections to build confidence between the government and the people.
It's too early to say whether the Arab Spring will turn out to be a success or not. The Arab Spring was about people deciding what they did not want and rising up against it, but they hadn't worked out what they did want. Many of them still have hope.
The U.S. brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iranian nuclear deal.
The president has embraced a national security establishment strategy for Afghanistan with a veneer that does not alter its essence. The result is likely to disappoint some of his supporters and to be criticized by his opponents, but it will also secure a measure of bipartisan support.
This Perspective explores the potential impacts that digital technologies may have on the nature of civic engagement and political processes, providing an overview of the opportunities and risks associated with the use of these technologies.
Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.
Isolationism is a recurring temptation of American foreign policy. Responding to new and unforeseen challenges, however, the United States has repeatedly resisted that temptation and risen to the demands of global leadership. Is it different today?
China is investing heavily in its military modernization program as it aims to extend its power in the region as well as globally. How will China's growing ability to project power affect U.S. regional goals?
The priority for the UK government during Brexit negotiations should be access to the single market and free trade deals with countries outside the EU. This would build on the common ground felt by the majority of Britons about what they feel are the most valuable aspects of the UK's future relationship with Europe.