Robust Decision Making

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Robust decision making (RDM) is an analytic framework that helps identify potential robust strategies, characterize the vulnerabilities of such strategies, and evaluate trade-offs among them. RDM is being used at RAND to help decisionmakers in areas such as water resources planning, energy, and coastal resilience—areas often plagued with “deep uncertainty,” in which stakeholders do not know or agree on the relationships among actions, consequences, and probabilities.

  • An aerial view of Central Texas homes under water at Graveyard Point neighborhood community in the flood plain of Lake Travis, photo by RoschetzkyIstockPhoto / Getty Images

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    Climate Research at RAND

    May 17, 2019

    RAND researchers have a long history of shedding light on the social and economic implications of a changing climate, its impacts on the natural environment, and the challenges it poses to communities, regions, and our national security.

  • Flooding in Pittsburgh,  photo by Artem S/Getty Images

    Research Brief

    Green Infrastructure Can Help Manage Rainfall in an Urban Watershed

    Oct 29, 2020

    Urbanization, inadequate investment in aging infrastructure, and more-frequent heavy rainfall events due to climate change have led to sewer overflows, flooding, and reduced water quality in U.S. cities. The challenges of increasing volumes of stormwater can be addressed by a mix of solutions.

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    The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis

    This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).

    Jan 1, 2001

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    Computer-assisted Reasoning

    Computer models provide a powerful tool for reasoning about difficult problems.

    Jan 1, 2001

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    Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

    Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change

    Jan 1, 2001

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Climate-change Strategy Needs to Be Robust

    Recommendation for use of ensembles of multiple scenarios to capture what is known about the long-term climate future.

    Jan 1, 2001

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    New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning

    In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S and T) planning.

    Jan 1, 1998

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    Journal Article

    Sociotechnical Reinvention: Implementation Dynamics and Collaboration Tools

    Sociotechnical systems theory suggests several themes about implementation, including continuous mutual adaptation of tool and context, task emphasis, the priority of process, and changes in evaluative criteria over time.

    Jan 1, 1998

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    Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling

    Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling

    Jan 1, 1994

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    The Nature of Uncertainty

    A discussion of the dimensions of the problem of uncertainty: the distinction between risk and uncertainty, the phase of the weapon system life cycle, and the level of suboptimization being considered in the decision problem at hand.

    Nov 1, 1973

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    Weilong Kong

    Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.P.A., University of Southern California; B.Ec. in finance, Renmin University of China

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    Alejandro U. Becerra-Ornelas

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education BA in policy analysis, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

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    Sandra H. Berry

    Senior Behavioral Scientist; Senior Director, Survey Research Group
    Education M.A. in sociology, University of California, Los Angeles; B.A. in American Studies/Art History, Goucher College

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    David Catt

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education B.S. in civil engineering, University of Kansas

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    Jeremy M. Eckhause

    Senior Operations Researcher
    Education Ph.D. in civil engineering, University of Maryland, College Park; M.S.E. in operations research, Princeton University; B.A. in mathematics, University of Pennsylvania

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    Jordan R. Fischbach

    Senior Policy Researcher
    Education Ph.D. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.Phil. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; B.A. in history, Columbia University

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    David G. Groves

    Director, RAND Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty; Senior Policy Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.S. in atmospheric sciences, University of Washington; M.S. in earth systems, Stanford University; B.S. in geological and environmental sciences, Stanford University

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    Kyle Haak

    Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education B.S. in physics, U.S. Air Force Academy

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    Ryan Henry

    Adjunct Senior Fellow
    Education M.S. in aeronautical systems, University of West Florida; M.S. in systems management, M.A. in public policy, University of Southern California; B.S. in environmental science and policy, U.S. Naval Academy

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    J. Luke Irwin

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.P.H., Unversity of Texas Health Science Center; M.Phil. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; B.S. in neurobiology, University of Texas

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    Robert J. Lempert

    Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition; Principal Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in applied physics, S.M. in applied physics and science policy, Harvard University; B.A.S. in physics and political science, Stanford University

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    Pedro Nascimento de Lima

    Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil; B.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil