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Southeast Asia

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Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia form the bulk of Southeast Asia, a region that has experienced significant economic development in recent decades but also faces ethnonationalism and security concerns. RAND has investigated these issues as well as the region's relations with the United States, the former Soviet bloc countries, China, and Japan.

Commentary
With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.
Sep 18, 2023
Report
How Would U.S. Allies View Changes in Washington's Relationship with Taiwan?
The debate in Washington over Taiwan often overlooks a crucial question: How would America's regional allies respond to possible changes in U.S. policy toward the island? Researchers explored the perspectives of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Jul 20, 2023

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Report
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
South Korea's Policy Options in Asia: Summary of a Webinar Hosted by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy
South Korea faces uncertainty over the roles it might play in Asia, especially South and Southeast Asia. An October 2022 webinar examined the strategies and policies available to South Korea.
Dec 15, 2022
Commentary
How China Is Building Influence Through Arms Sales
China may be using arms sales to strengthen alliances around the South China Sea and counter the United States' regional alliances. Beijing's security relationships around the South China Sea could be a harbinger of what it might replicate in Africa and possibly Latin America.
Dec 9, 2022
Report
Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions
The authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s while assessing U.S. risks and opportunities posed by Chinese military expansion.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
What Are China's Global Basing Ambitions?
China appears likely to seek military access and basing in its immediate vicinity and in the Middle East, but parts of Africa and the Indo-Pacific are also of interest. The United States should carefully prioritize where to resist Chinese access and basing and where to reinforce U.S. relationships.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
China's Role in the Global Development of Critical Resources
China's extensive foreign investments in energy infrastructure and critical minerals have raised concerns. Case studies in coal power, electricity transmission, and seabed mining examine China's behaviors and suggest ways to build capacity among host nations to minimize the potential effects of an overreliance on China.
Nov 7, 2022
Commentary
The Political Geography of the South China Sea Disputes
Until the early 20th century, the South China Sea was seen as a vital communications and trade passage that was not under the jurisdiction of any country or empire. How did littoral states' claims on its maritime zones and features develop? And what is the likely future of the disputes?
Oct 19, 2022
Commentary
Indonesia Is Looking for More Than Security Support from the United States
Rather than remain aloof from the new great power competition between the United States and China, Indonesia has quietly, albeit determinedly, favored relations with Washington, though in reality, it does not have much of a choice.
Sep 14, 2022
Commentary
The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too
Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.
Aug 22, 2022
Tool
Where Has China Sent Weapons and Security Contractors?
China exported weapons to 38 countries from 2018 to 2021. It also exported private security contractors to protect and secure its interests in other countries, such as mining facilities and ports. A map of the exports shows China's expansive influence across Asia and Africa and into Latin America.
Aug 19, 2022
Journal Article
Why Vietnam Might Want to Reconsider Its Russia Policy
Russia's war in Ukraine has put many countries in a tough spot, pitting them between maintaining healthy ties with Moscow and supporting Western punitive measures. One such nation is Vietnam.
May 12, 2022
Commentary
New Philippine President Marcos Jr. Likely Won't Repeat Duterte's Foreign Policy Mistakes
The May 2022 election of Bongbong Marcos as the next president of the Philippines will hold significant implications for Manila's foreign policy. He is likely to be influenced by the policies of both his father, former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, yielding a new government interested in engaging China while keeping the United States close by.
May 10, 2022
Report
Challenges of Deploying Ground-Based Intermediate-Range Missiles on Allied Lands
The United States has been hoping to develop and deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles to the Indo-Pacific. But what is the likelihood of its treaty allies in the region—Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand—hosting these systems? Are there alternatives to permanent basing?
Apr 28, 2022
Blog
Russian Mercenaries, Online Extremism, the Commercial Space Market: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on Russia's use of mercenaries, understanding how extremist movements operate online, trends in the commercial space market, and more.
Apr 15, 2022
Commentary
Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia
Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.
Apr 7, 2022
Research Brief
How and Why China Uses Gray Zone Tactics
China uses a variety of gray zone tactics—coercive actions that are shy of armed conflict but beyond normal diplomatic and economic activities—to advance its objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Which tactics should the United States prioritize countering?
Mar 30, 2022
Report
Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific
This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Commentary
Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead
Russia's war in Eastern Europe has prompted Indo-Pacific security watchers to draw comparisons between Ukraine's plight and that of Taiwan with regard to China. But the more-applicable analogy is a different Indo-Pacific country: Vietnam.
Mar 21, 2022
Journal Article
Tracking the Relocation of Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh: A Nighttime Lighting Approach
This report uses nighttime lighting data to track the relocation of Rohingya refugees from the Cox's Bazaar region of Bangladesh to Bhasan Char, a 'floating island' in the Bay of Bengal built to house roughly 100,000 refugees.
Jan 14, 2022

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