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Syria's civil war and the rise of the terrorist group known as the Islamic State has contributed to an unprecedented global refugee crisis, with millions of Syrians displaced internally or seeking refuge elsewhere. RAND's work has analyzed military options for the United States in Syria, strategies for defeating the Islamic State, and pathways to restoring peace.

Commentary
The Power and Limits of Threat: The Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act at One Year
A powerful new U.S. sanctions law on Syria came into effect one year ago, with great notice and speculation regarding its potential effects. Now, one year later, it is apparent that the act's power lies not in who the United States has sanctioned but in who the United States could sanction.
Jul 8, 2021
Report
Efforts to Avoid Civilian Casualties in Raqqa Were Considerable but Insufficient
The 2017 battle to liberate Raqqa, Syria, from ISIS is a cautionary tale in 21st-century conflicts. U.S. strategic choices likely increased civilian harm despite considerable efforts to avoid civilian casualties by both U.S. and coalition forces. What lessons can be applied to future operations?
Mar 31, 2022

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Commentary
Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes
Al Qaeda in Syria, by any name, remains a dangerous and capable terrorist organization with the ability to conduct attacks in the West. Those seeking to grapple with the threat the group poses should focus less on its names and more on its actions.
Mar 23, 2017
Commentary
Holding Assad Accountable for Chemical Weapons Use in Syria
With two no votes from China and Russia, the UN Security Council failed to pass a resolution punishing Syrian officials for their roles in chlorine attacks in 2014 and 2015. Leadership from the United States on this issue could show allies that despite a change in government, the U.S. remains committed to holding those who use chemical weapons accountable.
Mar 22, 2017
Report
Understanding ISIL and Principles for Defeating It
U.S. policymakers weighing options to accelerate ISIL's defeat must develop specific courses of action that address both ISIL and the regional security issues that would emerge after its fall.
Mar 21, 2017
Commentary
Beware the New Mujahideen: The Threat from Future Jihadist Networks
Today's terrorist networks will multiply far beyond the wars in Iraq and Syria. When one conflict ends, these fighters often join another. It is critical they be denied safe haven and the ability to train and network in ungoverned territories.
Mar 14, 2017
Commentary
To Take Raqqa, the U.S. Must Work with Its Partner in the Fight Against the Islamic State Group
Turkey strongly opposes the U.S. bid to arm the Syrian Kurds. Rushing into Raqqa without reaching agreement with Turkey would jeopardize larger U.S. regional and even global geopolitical objectives.
Mar 13, 2017
Commentary
Why a Dying ISIS Could Be an Even Bigger Threat
The collapse of the so-called caliphate won't eliminate ISIS or similar groups. In the short term, the threat of ISIS-related attacks on the West may even grow.
Mar 13, 2017
Commentary
Where Do ISIS Fighters Go When the Caliphate Falls?
When a conflict ends, transnational terrorists are likely to disperse in many directions and switch their allegiances among terrorist groups. For the West, countering these different groups will require a range of strategies.
Mar 6, 2017
Commentary
U.S. Should Test Russia on Islamic State
The United States should consider accepting Russia's offer to help on ISIS, especially if the Trump administration is considering sending more troops or establishing safe zones in Syria.
Feb 28, 2017
Report
Finding a Way Forward in Syria
After six years of fighting in Syria, the odds of removing the Assad regime are worse than ever. But the new U.S. administration could help de-escalate the conflict by focusing on a realistic outcome: a decentralized Syria with agreed regional zones backed by external powers.
Feb 8, 2017
Commentary
The Need for a Targeted Counter-ISIL Strategy
Defeating ISIL is only possible if political conditions change in the Middle East, North and West Africa, and South Asia, and in ways that are exceedingly unlikely. The coalition should focus on reducing ISIL's ability to conduct attacks and on removing the underlying conditions that feed Sunni grievances.
Feb 5, 2017
Report
Countering ISIL as a Transregional Threat
The U.S. counter-ISIL strategy must recognize the long-term nature of the global violent jihadi threat. U.S. diplomatic and military actions should focus on reducing the appeal of ISIL and disrupting the transregional network that supports it.
Jan 31, 2017
Commentary
Is ISIS Breaking Apart?
The coalition tasked with countering ISIS has made progress, and ISIS is sure to break apart further over the next few years. Any splinter groups that result could differ from their parent organization, so counterterrorism strategies will need to adjust.
Jan 31, 2017
Commentary
Hezbollah Is Winning the War in Syria
Most parties have been on the losing side of the war in Syria. Meanwhile, Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah has cemented its status as a regional power player. The group has gained fighting experience and benefited from a growing alliance with the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia.
Jan 30, 2017
Report
Troubled waters: a snapshot of security challenges in the Mediterranean region
This publication is part of a series of four RAND Perspectives (PE) each focusing on different challenges in the Mediterranean region. The focus of this PE is on defence and security issues and their implications for regional stability.
Jan 26, 2017
Commentary
Iran Is at Putin's Mercy
Russia and Iran have forged an unprecedented but fragile alliance in the Middle East. But there's no guarantee that Putin won't sell Iran out if he manages to forge better U.S. relations under Trump.
Jan 12, 2017
Report
How to Prevent State Collapse in Syria
Syria will likely be a weak state in a volatile region when its civil war ends. How can U.S. policy create conditions for a transition that helps fight terrorism and preserve state institutions?
Jan 9, 2017
Commentary
What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures
The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.
Nov 14, 2016
Commentary
How Will Jihadist Strategy Evolve As the Islamic State Declines?
As ISIL experiences ongoing battlefield losses it will have to rework its strategy to sustain itself as a preeminent jihadist brand. Meanwhile, the group will likely place greater emphasis on smaller scale strikes that require less central direction.
Nov 10, 2016
Commentary
Al Nusra Is Stronger Than Ever
While the West targets ISIS, Jabhat Fateh al Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al Nusra, is quietly laying the groundwork for al Qaeda's resurgence.
Nov 2, 2016
Commentary
Righting Relations With Russia
Russia's current anti-Western stridency coincides with rising internal repression. That may limit what the next U.S. president can do to improve relations.
Oct 31, 2016

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RAND Topic:
Syria

Topic Synonyms:
Syrian Arab Republic

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