Taiwan

Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

  • The USS Bonhomme Richard , left, and USS Green Bay docked at White Beach Naval Facility, Okinawa, Japan, March 5, 2015, photo by Lt. David Levy/U.S. Navy

    Commentary

    A Taiwan Contingency and Japan's Counterstrike Debate

    The United States and Japan could be drawn into a conflict in the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan whether they like it or not. Allied defense planning could consider how Japan might further reinforce deterrence and if necessary improve its ability to contribute to the common defense.

    Jul 23, 2021

  • Marines with Marine Corps Forces Cyberspace Command pose for photos in the cyber operations center at Lasswell Hall

    Report

    Chinese Disinformation Efforts on Social Media

    The authors identify key Chinese practices and the supporting infrastructure and conditions that successful social media disinformation campaigns require, concluding that China is using Taiwan as a test bed for developing attack vectors.

    Jul 19, 2021

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Exploring Chinese Military Thinking on Social Media Manipulation Against Taiwan

    This article addresses a gap in the current policy discussion, provides evidence of Chinese military planning for covert manipulation of Taiwanese social media, and explores how its interest in and tactics for social media manipulation have evolved over time.

    May 19, 2021

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?

    After conducting two strategic bomber flights around Taiwan in late 2016, Beijing significantly stepped up its operational tempo with at least another five flights circumnavigating the island in mid-2017.

    May 18, 2021

  • U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga hold a joint news conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., April, 16, 2021, photo by Doug Mills/Pool/Sipa USA/Reuters

    Commentary

    What the United States Wants from Japan in Taiwan

    If a Taiwan conflict breaks out, what might the United States request of Japan? For the U.S.-Japan alliance, the answer is critical if the countries want to translate expressions of support into actual planning and preparation.

    May 10, 2021

  • South Korean soldiers coordinate fires during a joint artillery exercise with U.S. soldiers near the Demilitarized Zone that separates North and South Korea, May 10, 2016, photo by Staff Sgt. Keith Anderson/U.S. Army

    Report

    The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait

    The United States and South Korea have a robust military presence on the Korean Peninsula that, at a minimum, would make any effort by North Korea to reunify the nations by force extremely costly. In contrast, the state of U.S. deterrence with regard to Chinese aggression against Taiwan is mixed.

    Apr 19, 2021

  • The guided-missile destroyers USS Sterett (DDG 104) and USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) transit the South China Sea, February 9, 2021, photo by MC3 Cheyenne Geletka/U.S. Navy

    Commentary

    Biden's China Reset Is Already on the Ropes

    The prospects of a U.S.-China reset are rapidly fading, and both sides bear some measure of responsibility. Beijing has refused to change its own assertive behavior. And all signs thus far point to a Biden administration that plans to take an exceptionally hard line against China.

    Mar 15, 2021

  • Chinese and Taiwanese flags are displayed around souvenir shops, ahead of the 60th anniversary of Second Taiwan Straits Crisis against China, in Kinmen, Taiwan, August 19, 2018, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Testimony

    Factors Shaping China's Use of Force Calculations Against Taiwan

    Taiwan remains the People's Liberation Army's main strategic direction despite a growing recognition that the PLA must also support China's international interests and presence. Does China see itself as capable of confronting the United States and its allies in a conflict over Taiwan? And what are some U.S. policy considerations?

    Feb 18, 2021

  • A Taiwanese coast guard points at a map showing the waters surrounding Matsu islands and mainland Chinese coast, at a coast guard office on Nangan island, the main island of the Taiwan-controlled Matsu islands, January 28, 2021, photo by Ann Wang/Reuters

    Testimony

    U.S. Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan

    As the Biden administration assesses its Taiwan policy, it is important to examine how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific might respond to a potential conflict over Taiwan. What factors might influence their willingness to help the United States defend Taiwan? And how might they respond if the United States did not come to Taiwan's defense?

    Feb 18, 2021

  • An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter takes off from the flight deck of the USS Mustin in the Taiwan Strait, August 18, 2020, photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Cody Beam/U.S. Navy

    Commentary

    Biden Doubles Down on Trump's Taiwan Policy, but Will It Last?

    It's an open secret that Taiwan welcomed the Trump administration's policy to significantly strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, and it was jittery about the transition to the Biden administration. Early indications, however, are that the Biden team appears poised to opt for a stronger relationship with Taiwan as set forth under the Trump administration.

    Feb 5, 2021

  • U.S. President-elect Joe Biden delivers a televised address to the nation at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, December 14, 2020, photo by Mike Segar/ReutersU.S. President-elect Joe Biden delivers a televised address to the nation at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, December 14, 2020, photo by Mike Segar/Reuters

    Commentary

    Why Taiwan Can Feel at Ease with Joe Biden as U.S. President

    Joe Biden's win in the U.S. presidential election is causing thinly veiled heartburn in Taipei. But concerns that the incoming Biden administration might rethink Taiwan policy in favor of better relations with China are probably misguided.

    Dec 15, 2020

  • Photo by Ron Przysucha/U.S. Government Photo

    Commentary

    PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

    The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.

    Oct 14, 2020

  • The Kuomintang party headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, August 9, 2004, Photo by Alan Chan / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

    Commentary

    Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem

    The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.

    Sep 25, 2020

  • U.S. Navy vessels in the Philippine Sea, November, 2018, photo by MC2 Kaila V. Peters/U.S. Navy

    Commentary

    Ambiguity Has Its Uses

    As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.

    Sep 24, 2020

  • U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar meets with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office, in Taipei, Taiwan, August 10, 2020, photo courtesy of the Taiwan Presidential Office

    Commentary

    Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons

    HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.

    Aug 21, 2020

  • Blog

    Air Travel Data to Predict COVID Risk, Heatwave Planning, Caregiver Time Off: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on using air travel data to predict COVID risk, planning for a heat wave during the pandemic, why caregivers need time off, and more.

    Jun 12, 2020

  • A sign with flags of (R-L) Tuvalu, Nauru, Taiwan, Marshall Islands, and Palau is seen before a ceremony to donate masks to Taiwan's Pacific allies, in Taipei, Taiwan, April 15, 2020, photo by Ben Blanchard/Reuters

    Commentary

    Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?

    The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Jun 8, 2020

  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech at the opening session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 22, 2020, photo by Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

    Commentary

    Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?

    For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

    Jun 3, 2020

  • Woman wearing a mask and holding a phone, looking off into the distance, photo by izusek/Getty Images

    Journal Article

    Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

    Taiwan learned from the SARS outbreak in 2003. Its response to COVID-19 holds lessons for other countries battling the new virus.

    Apr 1, 2020

  • Taiwan Vice President-elect William Lai and incumbent Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen celebrate at a rally after their election victory in Taipei, Taiwan, January 11, 2020, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?

    Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.

    Feb 13, 2020