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Terrorism

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From the Munich Olympics to 9/11 to worldwide bombings and mass shootings, terrorism is by no means a localized or recent phenomenon. Efforts to both catalog and counter terrorism, both in the United States and abroad, have been a key focus of RAND research since the early 1970s.

Report
Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons
Some policymakers and analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. While the prospect of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda pursuing biological weapons is not zero, it is unlikely, given the difficulties involved and the availability of simpler alternatives.
May 31, 2022
Report
Map of Online Violent Extremist Rhetoric Can Inform Counter-Efforts
An analysis of White identity terrorism and racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism discourse on social media finds that this content is largely created and fueled by users in the United States. A national strategy to counter these threats is needed.
Jun 7, 2022

Explore Terrorism

Commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
Oct 28, 2019
Commentary
One Year After Tree of Life, We Still Aren't Talking Enough About Violent White Supremacy
In the year since a gunman killed 11 worshippers in a Pittsburgh synagogue, the conversation about white supremacy has grown louder. But the United States still has a long way to go in dealing with this threat.
Oct 27, 2019
Commentary
How the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Provides a Boost to ISIS
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria could provide the ISIS terrorist group with the time and space to regrow its organization and extend its networks throughout the Middle East. The longer-term strategic effects of the decision could reverberate in the region for years to come.
Oct 21, 2019
Commentary
The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand
Without an orderly process for its national security decisions, the Trump administration has defaulted to the worst option regarding Syria. The sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces has left an opening for Russia to exploit. It also left the Kurds, a U.S. partner, to fend off a Turkish assault.
Oct 21, 2019
Commentary
Iran, the Unitary State
Current and future U.S. policy toward Iran must begin with the premise that the Islamic Republic is the sum of its parts and that to try to empower moderates or disempower hard-liners is naive. Rather, Washington should strive to deal with Iran as it is, not as Washington wishes it were.
Oct 18, 2019
Commentary
Iran's Proxies Are More Powerful Than Ever
The Trump administration has pursued a so-called maximum pressure strategy designed to alter the course of Iran's foreign and security policies, which relies heavily on sanctions to change Iranian behavior. Financial sanctions are an important part of any counterterrorism strategy. But they aren't enough.
Oct 16, 2019
Journal Article
Winning the Peace in Iraq: Don't Give Up on Baghdad's Fragile Democracy
Following years of war, Iraq's parliamentary government is stable and concerned with governance rather than sectarianism. But the work is not yet complete, and the author stresses diligence and patience before a lasting peace can be achieved.
Oct 11, 2019
Blog
China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on what the future holds for China, the importance of gender diversity in wargaming, how Army families address life's challenges, and more.
Oct 4, 2019
Commentary
A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas
Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.
Sep 25, 2019
Commentary
The Terrorist Threat Posed by Neglect and Indifference
Western countries have seemingly washed their hands when it comes to the aftermath of ISIS. By ignoring the threat and leaving it to the Iraqis and Syrian Kurds to deal with European citizens in detention camps, Western nations are helping the terrorists' ideology persist.
Sep 23, 2019
Commentary
Southeast Asia Loves ISIS, but Is the Feeling Mutual?
As the ISIS core in Iraq and Syria attempts to rebuild, Baghdadi and his lieutenants will have to make difficult decisions about where to allocate resources. Now that the caliphate is gone and ISIS must transform into an insurgency, the largely untested lands of Southeast Asia may yield rich rewards.
Sep 16, 2019
Blog
Hurricane Dorian, Al Qaeda, Veterans' Health: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at Hurricane Dorian recovery, al Qaeda 18 years after 9/11, veterans' mental health care, and more.
Sep 13, 2019
Blog
Social Manipulation, Boko Haram, Citizen Scientists: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at hostile social manipulation, stopping the next Boko Haram, a citizen-science success story, and more.
Sep 6, 2019
Commentary
Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again
As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
Sep 5, 2019
Commentary
Counterproductive Counterinsurgency: Is Mozambique Creating the Next Boko Haram?
Despite recent claims of ties to the Islamic State, the threat in Mozambique from the Islamist insurgent group al-Sunnah wa Jamaah appears to be domestic, with scarce evidence of direct ties to international extremist groups. But if the Mozambique government continues to respond in a heavy-handed manner, the threat is likely to grow, with potentially devastating effects for the country and region.
Sep 3, 2019
Commentary
The Contours of China's Evolving Counterterrorism Strategy
In discussing terrorism, China often uses language that seems lifted directly out of U.S.-style war on terror rhetoric. But no one should be fooled. Beijing's sole strategy for counterterrorism is widespread surveillance and repression, completely out of proportion to the level of threat it faces. It is using the threat of terrorism to mute international criticism of these practices and to export them abroad.
Aug 27, 2019
Blog
Drug Spending, Back to School, Korean Unification: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at illegal drug spending, the problem of waking up early for school, possible paths toward Korean unification, and more.
Aug 23, 2019
Report
What Will Drive the Next Generation of Salafi-Jihadis?
Continued economic stagnation and a high youth unemployment rate, exacerbated by the Muslim youth bulge, could lead to failed expectations and spur radicalization among disenchanted Gen Z Muslims. And this cohort's familiarity with the internet could foreshadow an adaptive, tech-savvy terrorist threat.
Aug 22, 2019
Commentary
Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.
Aug 12, 2019
Blog
Gun Policy, Cannabis, ISIS: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at gun policy in America, the cannabis market in Washington state, countering an ISIS comeback, and more.
Aug 9, 2019

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Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Richard H. Donohue

Policy Researcher

Richard (Dic) Donohue is a policy researcher at RAND’s Boston office. His primary areas of research focus on homeland security and law enforcement issues, including training, police-community relations, and recruitment/retention. Donohue has led Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center…
Terry L. Schell

Senior Behavioral Scientist

Terry L. Schell is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation. Much of his research has focused on violence and psychological trauma. This includes work documenting posttraumatic stress disorder, among civilian survivors of trauma and military service members; estimating the effects…

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