The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

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ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), also known as ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), is a Sunni jihadist group with a particularly violent ideology that calls itself a caliphate and claims religious authority over all Muslims. It was inspired by al Qaida but later publicly expelled from it. RAND terrorism experts have analyzed the group's financing, management, and organization; its savvy use of social media for recruitment and fundraising; and the instability that spawned the group as a regional problem in the Middle East.

Essay
Civilian Casualties: Lessons from the Battle for Raqqa
The United States' emphasis on minimizing civilian harm in Raqqa, Syria, was quite clear and strong up and down the chain of command. But the way in which the U.S. military waged war in Raqqa too often undercut that commitment. The Pentagon asked RAND to find out what happened.
Jul 1, 2022
Report
Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons
Some policymakers and analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. While the prospect of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda pursuing biological weapons is not zero, it is unlikely, given the difficulties involved and the availability of simpler alternatives.
May 31, 2022

Explore The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

Commentary
Baghdadi Resurfaces: What It Means for ISIS's Global Terror Campaign
With last week's release of a video of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, ISIS showed that it's still got some life left—literally. The most important message to take away from the Baghdadi video may be that the Islamic State does not need territory to survive and even thrive.
May 6, 2019
Commentary
Sri Lanka's Easter Attacks: Dismantling Myths to Prevent the Next Attack
On Easter Sunday, suicide bombers hit six locations across Sri Lanka, killing more than 250 people. Even before ISIS claimed responsibility, there was no obvious connection to the quarter-century of violence that afflicted the nation until 2009. It is worth dismantling a few myths that might prevent better preparation for future attacks.
May 6, 2019
Blog
Mueller Report, ISIS Leader, Brexit: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how the Mueller report might affect Russia, the emergence of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, uncertainty over Brexit, and more.
May 3, 2019
Commentary
What the Baghdadi Video Means
For the first time in five years, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the reclusive leader of ISIS, appeared on video. Why did he suddenly feel the need to show his face and speak to his followers? The answer concerns how recent events intersect with ISIS's long-term needs.
Apr 30, 2019
Blog
Medicare for All, Principals, Cigarette Labels: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on spending estimates under Medicare for All, the benefits of “principal pipelines,” graphic warning labels on cigarettes, and more.
Apr 12, 2019
Commentary
How Terrorist Groups Learn: Implications for al Qaeda
With the Islamic State losing the last of its territory, the global jihadist movement is now entering a new phase. The question on the minds of many is whether al Qaeda will be able to capitalize upon the moment and reclaim the dominant position as the most capable Sunni jihadist terrorist organization.
Mar 14, 2019
Blog
ISIS, Women's Day, Army Privates: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on what to do about ISIS detainees, stories from the Army's junior ranks, International Women's Day, and more.
Mar 8, 2019
Commentary
To Ensure Deradicalisation Programmes Are Effective, Better Evaluation Practices Must First Be Implemented
Given the increasing number of ISIS foreign fighters seeking re-entry into the UK, a better understanding of deradicalisation programs is essential. More robust and transparent evaluation processes for intervention programmes should be implemented before confidence in their effectiveness can be established.
Mar 4, 2019
Commentary
America's Absence Could Be Syria's New Nightmare
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria reverses his administration's recent policy of retaining them as long as Iranian troops stay. U.S. withdrawal would give Bashar al-Assad, Iran, and Russia freer rein to subdue opposition forces. And Assad could feel emboldened to act with greater impunity and brutality.
Jan 10, 2019
Commentary
Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria
Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran.
Jan 9, 2019
Commentary
Withdrawing from Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill
President Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria may be unintentionally signaling that the United States is unwilling to compete in critical geopolitical hotspots. Such a message could embolden powerful states—including Iran—to expand their presence.
Jan 8, 2019
Blog
Data Breaches, Marijuana, Turkey: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on consumer reactions to data breaches, understanding teen marijuana use after legalization, why the United States can't rely on Turkey to defeat ISIS, and more.
Jan 4, 2019
Commentary
The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS
Relying on Turkey to shoulder the burden of countering the Islamic State will provide the terrorist group with an opportunity to revive itself at a critical stage in the fight. Turkey's main focus is on the Kurds and Erdogan's opposition. Eradicating the Islamic State is a secondary priority that has often been ignored.
Jan 2, 2019
Blog
Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2018
RAND experts publish hundreds of pieces of RAND Blog commentary every year, weighing in on pressing policy questions, breaking down current events, and untangling complex trends. To look back on some of the policy stories that defined the year, we've rounded up the RAND Blog pieces that resonated most with rand.org visitors.
Dec 20, 2018
Multimedia
Best RAND Videos of 2018
RAND research yields findings that run the gamut of potential applications and promising policy solutions. Here, we highlight three of 2018's most captivating videos featuring RAND research and its potential to inform policy.
Dec 19, 2018
News Release
Islamic State Proves Greater Draw for U.S.-Born Recruits Than al Qaeda
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Whereas al-Qaeda was more reliant on preexisting connections to the region or Islam, an ISIL candidate recruit is more likely to be younger, less educated, and a U.S.-born citizen.
Dec 18, 2018
Report
Trends in the Draw of Americans to Foreign Terrorist Organizations from 9/11 to Today
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Americans drawn to ISIL are more likely to be younger, less educated, Caucasian/white or African American/black, and to have been born in the United States.
Dec 18, 2018
Commentary
The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate
The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The Islamic State could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.
Dec 11, 2018
Commentary
ISIS's Social Media Use Poses a Threat to Stability in the Middle East and Africa
The importance of social media in projecting violent extremist propaganda and recruiting foreign fighters is well documented. As ISIS attempts to regroup and recuperate, investigating its use of information and communication technologies could be important to understanding the group's plans to regain territorial control.
Dec 11, 2018
Journal Article
Social Media in Africa: A Double-Edged Sword for Security and Development: Research Brief
The United Nations Development Programme commissioned RAND Europe to explore social media use and its links to online radicalisation in Africa. The study analysed the social media use of three Islamist terrorist groups across seven countries.
Nov 5, 2018