Threat Assessment

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Researchers collaborate across disciplines at RAND to evaluate terrorist, military, nuclear, cyber, and other threats to U.S. national security—identifying emerging threats, scrutinizing known risks, and evaluating potential strategic and tactical responses. Recent studies have included examinations of ISIS, Iran's nuclear capabilities, and insider threats.

  • Visitors stand in front of a screen displaying Chinese President Xi Jinping next to a flag of the Communist Party at a military museum in Beijing, China, October 8, 2022, photo by Florence Lo/Reuters

    Commentary

    Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

    China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

    Mar 24, 2023

  • Thom Shanker and Andrew Hoehn, photo by Karen Sayre/Eikon Photography

    Q&A

    Keeping America Safe in an Age of Danger: Q&A with Andrew Hoehn and Thom Shanker

    In their new book, Andrew Hoehn and Thom Shanker argue that America has entered an age of danger that may come to rival anything in its history. They explain why the national security system needs an overhaul as we face a growing array of threats, from cyber attacks to climate change.

    Jun 26, 2023

Explore Threat Assessment

  • Silhouette of several militants with rifles, photo by zabelin/Getty Images

    Commentary

    Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?

    Government efforts to counter the propaganda and radicalization that lead to violent extremism are becoming more common around the world, but there's little research on whether such programs work. It is critical to conduct more research to tease out which programs are most effective.

    Sep 11, 2020

  • Osama bin Laden (L) sits with his adviser Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a secret location in Afghanistan, November 10, 2001, photo by Hamid Mir/Reuters

    Commentary

    Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

    Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.

    Sep 11, 2020

  • A man wearing a t-shirt with an image of Zakir Rashid Bhat, the leader of an al Qaeda affiliated militant group in Kashmir, in Dadasara, Kashmir, May 24, 2019, photo by Danish Ismail/Reuters

    Commentary

    Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

    Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.

    Sep 9, 2020

  • A member of the Three Percent militia in downtown Stone Mountain, Georgia, where various militia groups stage rallies, August 15, 2020, photo by Dustin Chambers/Reuters

    Commentary

    Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicalization and Violence?

    The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further cleaved an already deeply divided society. The conditions facing the United States today are reminiscent of those that gave rise to the radicalism of the 1970s and could once again lead to political violence, including terrorism.

    Aug 17, 2020

  • RAND Weekly Recap

    Blog

    Preparing for a COVID-19 Election, Hurricane Response, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on preparing for a COVID-19 election, how the pandemic is affecting artists, North Korea's deadly artillery, and more.

    Aug 7, 2020

  • A throng of shoppers in Myungdong, downtown Seoul, South Korea, July 17, 2011, photo by United Nations/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

    Report

    A North Korean Artillery Attack Could Kill Thousands in Only an Hour

    North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers. Five attack scenarios show that casualties could range from 4,500 to more than 200,000. The United States and South Korea should avoid military provocation cycles that could lead to these attacks.

    Aug 6, 2020

  • A man seated in front of a computer monitor in a dark room, photo by tommaso79/Getty Images

    Commentary

    Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound. Here Are the Key Dangers

    Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.

    Jul 20, 2020

  • Supporters of the Houthi movement attend a rally to mark the 4th anniversary of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen's war, in Sanaa, Yemen, March 26, 2019, photo by Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

    Report

    Could Yemen's Houthis Be the Next Hizballah?

    Iran turns to sponsor-proxy relationships to expand its reach in the Middle East while minimizing the risk of inviting direct conflict. The Houthis give Iran reach into Yemen and the Red Sea, providing a means to harass its rival, Saudi Arabia. Will Iran further invest in the Houthis?

    Jul 13, 2020

  • Counterterrorism police stand guard at the annual Gay Pride Parade in Greenwich Village, June 25, 2017, photo by PeskyMonkey/Getty Images

    Commentary

    The Growing Irrelevance of Organizational Structure for U.S. Domestic Terrorism

    For decades, America's primary terrorist threat came from groups based abroad. Today, a new crop of terrorist actors is emerging from within our own borders. Although diverse and for the most part unconnected to each other, they share a common objective of disrupting society and in the process, overturning existing norms if not the entire political, social, and economic order.

    Jul 2, 2020

  • A map of the continental United States is shown with lines representing COVID-19 importation risk

    Project

    Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 with Air Travel Data

    As the pandemic enters a new phase, punctuated by emerging hot spots and continuing global spread, a new RAND tool lets policymakers predict regional risks of importing cases of COVID-19.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • News Release

    News Release

    New Tool Employs Air Travel Data to Predict Global Spread of COVID-19

    As the pandemic enters a new phase, punctuated by emerging hot spots and continuing global spread, a new RAND tool allows policymakers to predict regional risks of importing cases of COVID-19.

    Jun 5, 2020

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    Report

    COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

    Based on officially reported cases in China in January 2020, the odds of the novel coronavirus appearing by January 22, 2020, in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the United States, and Taiwan—as it did—would have been minuscule.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • aeroplane, air, aircraft, airline, airplane, airplanes, airport, arrival, aviation, background, blue, business, cockpit, commercial, craft, dawn, departure, dusk, engine, flight, front, ground, holiday, jet, journey, landing, modern, morning, panorama, panoramic, parking, plane, runway, sky, straight, summer, sunrise, takeoff, taxi, taxiway, transport, transportation, travel, trip, turbine, vacation, vehicle, white, wing

    Report

    A New RAND Tool Helps Analyze Commercial Air Travel Involving Infected Passengers

    Researchers combine case data from Johns Hopkins University with detailed air travel data from the International Air Transport Association to visualize how COVID-19 infections and commercial air travel have interacted to export infection risk across the world.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • adult, airline, airport, arrival, back, baggage, blond, board, business, businesswoman, canceled, caucasian, check-in, communication, commute, commuter, delayed, departure, destination, display, elegant, flight, girl, holiday, human, information, international, luggage, panel, passenger, people, person, plane, schedule, suitcase, terminal, timetable, tourist, transfer, transportation, travel, traveler, trip, white, woman, young, orange, passport

    Report

    Decisionmakers Should Base Travel Restrictions on Infection Rates Per Capita and Air Traffic Levels

    Countries with modest numbers of confirmed cases can still represent the greatest risks of virus exportation to the United States if those countries have relatively high active case rates per capita and high levels of connectivity to the United States.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • Riyadh, airport, plane, airplane, landing, Saudi Arabia, flying, arrive, terminal, aeroport, travel, airline, tourism, transportation, vacation, transport, trip, day, fly, commercial, aerodrome, visit, sky, sun, reflection, building, destination, arrival, 3d, clouds, city, voyage, jet, business, 3d rendering, illustration, glass, front, entrance, 3d, rendering, riyadh, saudi arabia

    Report

    Air Passenger Transmission Risk to GCC Countries Originated from Outside the Region

    Analyses contradict the idea that Iran was most responsible for the spread of COVID-19 to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • A passenger aircraft of China Eastern Airlines takes off at Paris Charles de Gaulle airport in Roissy-en-France during the outbreak of COVID-19, May 19, 2020, photo by Charles Platiau/Reuters

    Report

    By January 31, 2020, at Least 1.5 Daily Infected Passengers Were Originating in China

    By late January 2020, infections of COVID-19 were likely being exported from China, via commercial air travel, on a daily basis.

    Jun 5, 2020

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Applying Indications and Warning Frameworks to Cyber Incidents

    This research proposes a high-level yet practical strategic cyber indications and warning approach that governments, NATO agencies, and the private sector can apply to defend against cyber threats.

    Apr 28, 2020

  • Report

    Small Unmanned Aerial System Adversary Capabilities

    It is difficult to detect, identify, classify, and—consequently—counter nefarious small unmanned aerial systems (sUASs), particularly in urban areas. As the U.S. Department of Homeland Security prepares for this potential threat, it will need to know the types of threat scenarios in which these systems could be used, which design elements are likely to be exploited by a nefarious actor, and which technologies and capabilities may be available in the near future.

    Mar 12, 2020

  • Report

    Report

    Relationships between the economy and national security: Analysis and considerations for economic security policy in the Netherlands

    This study examines the relationship between the economy and national security in the Netherlands, with a focus on the characteristics and performance of the Dutch economy and the consequences of this for its national security.

    Jan 14, 2020

  • Map depicting Russia's gray zone aggression, images by Harvepino and Serdarbayraktar/Getty Images. Design by Rick Penn-Kraus/RAND Corporation

    Report

    Understanding Russia's Hostile Measures and How to Counter Them

    Russia has used hostile measures to sow disorder, weaken democratic institutions, and undermine NATO cohesion. But it also has a long track record of strategic shortfalls and even ineptitude. Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's behavior is critical in both the gray zone and conventional war.

    Jan 7, 2020

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