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Turkey

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Straddling Europe and Asia, the Republic of Turkey is a democratic and secular member of the G-20 with an almost entirely Muslim population. RAND has long studied Turkey's evolving strategic significance, including its role in the UN and NATO, its history as a U.S. ally in the Cold War, and its efforts to join the European Union.

Commentary
Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans
Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.
Mar 6, 2023
Q&A
Earthquake in Turkey, Syria: Insights from RAND Researchers
Thousands of people have been confirmed dead in one the strongest earthquakes to hit Turkey and Syria in the past century. As search-and-rescue missions ended and recovery began, a handful of RAND researchers shared some of their initial thoughts.
Feb 14, 2023

Explore Turkey

Blog
Border Wall, Student Suspension, Syria: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on what a border wall can accomplish, reducing student suspensions, confusion over the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and more.
Jan 11, 2019
Commentary
Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria
Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran.
Jan 9, 2019
Blog
Data Breaches, Marijuana, Turkey: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on consumer reactions to data breaches, understanding teen marijuana use after legalization, why the United States can't rely on Turkey to defeat ISIS, and more.
Jan 4, 2019
Commentary
The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS
Relying on Turkey to shoulder the burden of countering the Islamic State will provide the terrorist group with an opportunity to revive itself at a critical stage in the fight. Turkey's main focus is on the Kurds and Erdogan's opposition. Eradicating the Islamic State is a secondary priority that has often been ignored.
Jan 2, 2019
News Release
Syrian Refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon Can Add Value to Local Economies
Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon could better contribute to local economies if they were trained for middle-skill jobs and were able to relocate to areas with manufacturing firms that need trained workers.
Dec 13, 2018
Report
Syrian Refugees Can Add Value to Middle Eastern Labor Markets
Over 5 million Syrian refugees entered Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan due to the civil war. This has placed a severe strain on the host countries' labor markets, public services, and social cohesion. The future prosperity and stability of the region rests on creating mutually beneficial economic opportunities for Syrian refugees and host-country workers.
Dec 13, 2018
Research Brief
Win-Win Solutions for Syrian Refugees—and Their Hosts
Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan have generously received the majority of Syrian refugees. Many are working, but their sheer numbers have strained local labor markets, public services, and social harmony. Which policies might help create new economic opportunities for both the refugees and host-nation workers?
Dec 13, 2018
Blog
Veterans, Infrastructure, Middle East: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the challenges facing veterans and their loved ones, a chance for bipartisan infrastructure policy, realignment in the Middle East, and more.
Nov 9, 2018
Commentary
Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?
The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?
Oct 31, 2018
Commentary
How Russia Uses Media and Information Operations in Turkey
Russian media have employed propaganda strategies to undermine Turkey's political and security cooperation with the United States and Europe. Russian media have also contributed to anti-American discourse in Turkey and have reinforced the Turkish government's propaganda pursuits.
Aug 28, 2018
Report
Israeli-Turkish Ties Face Formidable Challenges
Israel and Turkey have mutual economic interests, such as trade, tourism, and energy. The two countries have usually been able to separate these interests from their political differences, but current relations remain contentious. Israel and Turkey differ on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the future of Syria.
Jun 27, 2018
Commentary
Turkey's Double Standard: How Ankara's Actions Contradict Its Claims of Opposing the Islamic State
Turkey wants to take credit for the demise of the Islamic State, insisting that Turkey's actions in northern Syria have helped lay the groundwork for a sustainable peace. But the evidence clearly suggests otherwise.
Apr 13, 2018
Commentary
What's Turkey Trying to Achieve in Syria?
Turkish President Erdoğan is attempting to cement his political legitimacy among Syrian Sunnis by portraying himself as their savior. If the United States withdraws from Syria after the mission to defeat ISIS is complete, it will essentially be ceding the advantage to Erdoğan, who can continue pushing his agenda.
Apr 2, 2018
Commentary
Erdogan's Fatal Blind Spot
Erdogan's tolerance of ISIS fighters in Turkey amounts to tacit approval. The danger posed by ISIS using Turkey as a staging ground could become more formidable than the threat currently posed by Kurdish terrorism. Tolerating ISIS to fight the Kurds is therefore a dangerous and myopic policy.
Feb 16, 2018
Commentary
Jerusalem Embassy Move Sparks Turkey-Israel War of Words
President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital has exacerbated tensions between Turkey and Israel. Economic interests had provided incentives for thawing relations in June 2016, but separating economic interests from political differences is harder today given the mistrust between Ankara and Jerusalem.
Jan 2, 2018
Commentary
Addressing Europe's Migrant Crisis Takes More Than Stopping the Boats from Libya
Treating migration from Libya as a border security issue has reduced migration across the Mediterranean. But efforts to keep migrants in Libya are fraught with risks, exacerbate a massive human rights problem, and do not address Libya's long-term economic and political stabilization.
Sep 25, 2017
Commentary
A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?
While Turkish President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.
May 21, 2017
Commentary
To Take Raqqa, the U.S. Must Work with Its Partner in the Fight Against the Islamic State Group
Turkey strongly opposes the U.S. bid to arm the Syrian Kurds. Rushing into Raqqa without reaching agreement with Turkey would jeopardize larger U.S. regional and even global geopolitical objectives.
Mar 13, 2017
Commentary
Regional foreign policy dynamics and their implications for the Mediterranean Region
This publication is part of a series of four RAND Perspectives (PE) each focusing on different challenges in the Mediterranean region. The focus of this PE is on regional foreign policy dynamics and their implications for stability and security.
Jan 26, 2017
Commentary
How to Prevent State Collapse in Syria
Syria will likely be a weak state in a volatile region when its civil war ends. How can U.S. policy create conditions for a transition that helps fight terrorism and preserve state institutions?
Jan 9, 2017

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