Ukraine

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  • Essay

    Postwar Ukraine: Planning for a Successful and Secure Recovery

    To rebuild successfully, Ukraine will need to come out of the war on a new trajectory. It already has an outline of what recovery will look like. The plan looks beyond the immediate damages and envisions more than $750 billion in economic support and projects that would raise a new Ukraine from the destruction.

    Jan 5, 2024

  • Report

    National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine

    From the 1990s to the 2022 invasion, Russia's manipulation of Ukraine was based on a post-Soviet Russian identity that was hostile to the European project. Meanwhile, Ukraine formed a national identity that was at odds with Russia's, and it grew stronger and more resistant to Russian influence.

    Nov 29, 2023

Explore Ukraine

  • A member of the honor guard prepares during a Ukrainian flag-raising ceremony to mark the first anniversary of the liberation of the town of Bucha, outside Kyiv, March 31, 2023, photo by Gleb Garanich/Reuters

    Q&A

    Two Years After Russia Invaded Ukraine: Q&A with RAND Experts

    RAND experts discuss the state of the conflict in Ukraine and its prospects, the war's global implications, possible outcomes and solutions, and what the West and the rest of the world might be doing now and once hostilities end.

    Feb 19, 2024

  • Multimedia

    RAND Experts Discuss the Second Anniversary of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

    In this Call with the Experts podcast, RAND experts discuss the state of the conflict in Ukraine and its prospects, the war's global implications, possible outcomes and solutions, and what the West and the rest of the world might be doing now and once hostilities end.

    Feb 16, 2024

  • A U.S. Army soldier and members of the Lithuanian Parliament take a close-up look at M1A2 Abrams tanks during a tour of Camp Herkus, Lithuania, January 4, 2024, photo by Staff Sgt. Oscar Gollaz/U.S. Army

    Commentary

    From Forward Presence to Forward Defense: NATO's Defense of the Baltics

    The Baltic states remain vulnerable to a potential Russian military attack due to their geography. They are watching closely as NATO begins pivoting its posture of deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial.

    Feb 14, 2024

  • Stylized U.S. and Russian flags

    Research Brief

    The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia

    How should the United States deal with Russia after the war in Ukraine finally ends? And how might U.S. policy during the conflict shape the postwar world?

    Feb 9, 2024

  • The flags of the united States, Russia, and Ukraine on a cracked wall.

    Report

    Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War

    Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. policymakers should begin considering postwar Russia strategy now. The authors review U.S. strategic options and trade-offs that different choices pose for long-term U.S. interests.

    Feb 9, 2024

  • The deck of the USS Donald Cook

    Journal Article

    A Security Strategy for the Black Sea

    This report outlines the strategic setting, regional challenges and threats, key planning assumptions, risk and risk mitigation, and finally DIME-based recommendations for enhancing security and stability in the Black Sea region.

    Feb 5, 2024

  • A Ukrainian serviceman drives an M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle at a position near Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, June 26, 2023, photo by Rfe/Rl/Serhii Nuzhnenko via Reuters

    Commentary

    Upping the Ante on Western Weapons Could End the Stalemate in Ukraine

    The Russo-Ukrainian war might be at a strategic tipping point. The ground fight in Ukraine's east is stalemated, but Russian sea and air power in Crimea is diminished. The future flow of Western aid may be less certain. To address these challenges, the West might escalate support for Ukraine's military and signal firmness to Moscow.

    Jan 30, 2024

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the Territorial Command of the German Armed Forces in Berlin, Germany, February 28, 2023, photo by IMAGO/Florian Gaertner/photothek.de via Reuters

    Commentary

    Germany's New Plans for Transforming Its Defence and Foreign Policy Are Bold. They Are Also Running Into Familiar Problems

    Germany's new defence policy guidelines mark a seismic transformation in German military strategy, away from diplomacy and dialogue, towards defence and deterrence. But as the country seeks to be more assertive on the international stage, there may be resistance at home.

    Jan 17, 2024

  • A Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile being carried by a Mikoyan MiG-31K interceptor in a 2018 Moscow Victory Day parade, photo by kremlin.ru/CC BY 4.0

    Commentary

    China Evaluates Russia's Use of Hypersonic 'Daggers' in the Ukraine War

    A Chinese review of Russia's use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Ukraine is pessimistic about their ability to have a major impact on the outcome of the war. It is not yet clear how this insight will affect China's assessments of its own hypersonic arsenal.

    Jan 12, 2024

  • Periodical

    Periodical

    RAND Review: January-February 2024

    The cover story explores the postwar reconstruction effort in Ukraine — likely the largest postwar rebuilding effort in modern history — and how previous postwar and post–natural disaster reform and reconstruction efforts can inform policymaking.

    Jan 8, 2024

  • Members of the Estonian Defence Forces are seen during Spring Storm NATO exercises near Tapa, Estonia, May 19, 2023, photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Reuters

    Commentary

    Joining NATO Is Not Enough to Defend Ukraine: Allies Must Step Up

    Any security pledges for Ukraine may be wanting unless backed up by an allied force presence. An armed peacekeeping force could lack sufficient firepower or robust rules of engagement. A stronger force would be more credible.

    Dec 28, 2023

  • Ukrainian service members check a destroyed Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle in the newly liberated village of Storozheve, June 14, 2023, photo by Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters

    Commentary

    Ukraine, Gaza, and the U.S. Army's Counterinsurgency Legacy

    What insights from Russia's war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war might be meaningful to the U.S. Army and the rest of the joint force?

    Dec 22, 2023

  • Flags of Ukraine and Europe blow in the wind Kyiv, Ukraine, February 24, 2023, photo by Kay Nietfeld//dpa/Reuters

    Commentary

    Elements of an Eventual Russia-Ukraine Armistice and the Prospect for Regional Stability in Europe

    There is no going back to normal relations with Russia after its wanton violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. But it is still possible to conceive of managing the competition with Russia and working out regional arrangements that will reduce the possibility of future conflicts and contribute to regional and global stability.

    Dec 21, 2023

  • Participants line up during an exhibition marking the anniversary of a historical parade in 1941, when Soviet soldiers marched towards the front lines in the course of WWII, in Moscow, Russia, November 7, 2023, photo by Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

    Report

    What Is the Invasion of Ukraine Costing Russia?

    As of September 2022, Russia's military costs of its invasion of Ukraine reached $40 billion. GDP losses in 2022 were between $81 billion and $104 billion. Russia can sustain these costs for at least several years but over the long term its economy and standard of living are likely to decline.

    Dec 18, 2023

  • Photos by Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters, Carlos Barria/Reuters, Florence Lo/Reuters, skynesher/Getty Images, Ronen Zvulun/Reuters, Lucy Nicholson/Reuters, Geber86/Getty Images, image by Haley Okuley/RAND

    Commentary

    Looking Back on the Big Policy Stories of 2023

    As 2023 draws to a close, RAND president and CEO Jason Matheny highlights areas where RAND is tackling the most urgent and complex problems we face. Each is a small reminder that where there are thoughtful people working tirelessly to find solutions, there is hope.

    Dec 14, 2023

  • Utility services workers work to restore heating networks in preparation for the heating season in Kharkiv, Ukraine, August 14, 2023, photo by Vyacheslav Madiyevskyi/Reuters

    Commentary

    Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine

    Kyiv may be prudent to invest in resilience as it rebuilds energy and other utilities, transport, economic and health infrastructure, and housing. Doing so could put Ukraine in a stronger position during the war and give it a jump start on peacetime rebuilding.

    Dec 7, 2023

  • U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hand with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Woodside, California, November 15, 2023, photo by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Nuclear Shadows of the Ukraine War as Seen Through a Chinese Lens

    China-U.S. relations are once again on an upward trajectory after the meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit. But the good news should not obscure lingering bilateral tensions with respect to nuclear weapons.

    Dec 6, 2023

  • Report

    Report

    U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: The U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Era of Strategic Competition

    These proceedings present insights that experts of Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. security policies presented at RAND Corporation–hosted virtual conferences that explored relevant issues on the U.S.-Japan alliance regarding strategic competition.

    Nov 29, 2023