Ukraine

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  • A Ukrainian service member inspects a destroyed Russian armored personnel carrier in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 30, 2022, photo by Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

    Commentary

    What if Russia's Army Fails in Ukraine?

    Jun 20, 2022

    Fighting in Ukraine will likely continue. But battlefield advantages could continue to ebb and flow, too. The West should prudently prepare for Ukrainian success as well as a less favorable outcome.

  • Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022, photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

    Content

    Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

    Mar 16, 2022

    A vast body of previously published RAND research—as well as real-time insights from RAND experts—sheds light on important issues related to Russia's attack against Ukraine. These include Russia's strategy and military capabilities, the Ukrainian resistance, and how to address the refugee crisis.

Explore Ukraine

  • Russian weapons captured by Ukrainian forces seen in front of St. Michael's Monastery in Kyiv, Ukraine, May 31, 2022, photo by Ulf Mauder/Picture-Alliance/DPA/AP

    Q&A

    Russia's Ambitions and the War in Ukraine: Q&A with Dara Massicot

    Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at RAND who specializes in Russian military strategy. In this interview, she discusses Russia's war in Ukraine, its incorrect assumptions about Ukraine's will to fight, and how hard it's going to be for Russia to restore its military capabilities.

    Jun 29, 2022

  • Ballet dancers perform Pyotr Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake at the Mikhailovsky theatre in St. Petersburg, Russia, September 28, 2016, photo by Grigory Dukor/Reuters

    Commentary

    How Cognitive Dissonance and Repression Shape Russian Perceptions of the Conflict in Ukraine

    Cognitive dissonance theory offers a compelling explanation for one of the confounding phenomena emerging from the war in Ukraine—Russians who refuse to believe their Ukrainian family members' lived experiences of the war. How is it that of the two cognitions Russians are wrestling with, the Kremlin's manufactured truth often prevails?

    Jun 29, 2022

  • Military aid from the United States is unloaded from a plane at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine, February 13, 2022, photo by Serhiy Takhmazov/Reuters

    Commentary

    What Better Way to Use the Arsenal of Democracy?

    At what point can the United States and other countries no longer afford the massive transfer of weapons to the Ukrainians, lest they jeopardize the readiness of their own militaries? When does the arsenal of democracy shift to the arsenal for self? These are questions that are starting to be raised as the demand for weapons becomes clear in what is now a protracted war in Ukraine.

    Jun 28, 2022

  • Blog

    Synthetic Opioids, Ukrainian Grain, the Metaverse: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on countering the illegal flow of synthetic opioids, freeing up Ukrainian grain to prevent famine, the importance of defining the metaverse, and more.

    Jun 24, 2022

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the opening ceremony of new healthcare facilities in several regions of Russia, via video link in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 18, 2022, photo by Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Reuters

    Commentary

    Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?

    Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.

    Jun 22, 2022

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin watches a military parade on Victory Day in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2022, photo by Mikhail Metzel/Pool via

    Commentary

    Should Ukraine Settle with Russia?

    Should the United States humiliate Russia—and Russian President Vladimir Putin specifically—over the Russo-Ukrainian War? It could lead to escalation and new wars, but the United States and NATO may need to think twice before offering concessions.

    Jun 22, 2022

  • Blog

    Teachers' Stress, Drug Dealing in San Francisco, Preventing Mass Shootings: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on stress among America's educators, what state governments can do to prevent targeted violence, stopping open-air drug dealing in San Francisco, and more.

    Jun 17, 2022

  • An employee works as grains are loaded in a special transport cargo bound for Egypt, in the Black Sea port of Constanta, Romania, May 11, 2022, photo by Olimpiu Gheorghiu/Reuters

    Commentary

    Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain

    As Russia has been blockading ports around Odesa, Ukrainian grain exports in May were more than 60 percent lower than a year ago. Global hunger has hit a new high while 22 million tons of grain in Ukraine could rot if not exported soon.

    Jun 15, 2022

  • Illustration of network connections over Earth, image by Anton Balazh/Adobe Stock

    Report

    Russia's Information Warfare with the West

    Popular portrayals of the Russian disinformation machine imply an organized and well-resourced operation, but evidence suggests that it is neither. Nonetheless, Russian social media activity can be harmful to U.S. interests and is likely to evolve.

    Jun 7, 2022

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a screen partially obscured by decorations at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, June 4, 2021, photo by Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Return of 'Don’t Poke the Bear'

    Some argue that, in order to avoid antagonizing Russia, the West should call for Ukraine to back down and move toward a negotiated peace. But this strategy comes with its own set of consequences.

    Jun 3, 2022

  • Blog

    Gun Policy, Ukraine's Best Chance for Peace, Equity and Public Policy: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses what the scientific evidence says about gun laws, a potential pathway toward peace in Ukraine, helping incarcerated parents, and more.

    Jun 3, 2022

  • A Ukrainian service member walks in a trench near the front line in the Donetsk Region, Ukraine, May 29, 2022, photo by Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters

    Commentary

    Ukraine's Best Chance for Peace

    In late March, Ukrainian diplomats introduced an innovative framework for a deal that could provide a pathway out of the war. There are powerful obstacles to achieving an agreement based on the framework, but so far it is the most plausible pathway identified to a sustainable peace for Ukraine.

    Jun 1, 2022

  • (l-r) Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese, U.S. President Joe Biden, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida, and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi pose for photos at the entrance hall of the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, May 24, 2022, photo by Zhang Xiaoyu/Pool via Reuters

    Commentary

    Russia's Invasion of Ukraine May Harden U.S. Indo-Pacific Allies

    The effects of Russia's war against Ukraine stretch worldwide as countries watch Ukraine's unfolding tragedy to glean possible lessons for their own security. Understanding how Australia and Japan are perceiving the conflict could be critical for allied strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

    May 26, 2022

  • Footage released by Russia Ministry of Defense shows Russian soldiers from airborne units advancing in an undisclosed location in Ukraine, March 10, 2022, photo by Russian MOD/Eyepress Pictures/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Russian Military Has Failed Its Sons

    The Russian military has a long history of mistreating its personnel and their frightened families. The military's culture of disregard for the lives and well-being of its personnel has done more than undermine their combat performance; it has also tanked their morale and will to fight.

    May 18, 2022

  • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visits army reservist troops during training in Nanshipu, Taiwan, March 12, 2022, photo by Ann Wang/Reuters

    Commentary

    Ukraine War Is Motivating Taiwan to Better Secure Its Own Future

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine is probably motivating Taiwan to better secure its own future versus China. But many of the challenges currently facing Taiwan, such as shortcomings in reservist training or lingering confusion over its military strategy, are difficult to fix, assuming they are even fixable.

    May 13, 2022

  • Blog

    Truth Decay, School Lunch Nutrition, Regulating Space: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on tackling Truth Decay, how civilian tech experts view the military's use of artificial intelligence, a new approach to regulating outer space, and more.

    May 13, 2022

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Why Vietnam Might Want to Reconsider Its Russia Policy

    Russia's war in Ukraine has put many countries in a tough spot, pitting them between maintaining healthy ties with Moscow and supporting Western punitive measures. One such nation is Vietnam.

    May 12, 2022

  • U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on arming Ukraine, after touring a Lockheed Martin weapons factory in Troy, Alabama, May 3, 2022, photo by Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Escalation Fixation

    Fears of global nuclear annihilation should have produced a concerted effort by all sides to keep the Ukraine conflict limited. But the focus on escalation—rather than ensuring Russia's defeat—has instead made the international security picture more precarious.

    May 6, 2022

  • Local resident Olga is seen in her destroyed flat in Borodyanka, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine, April 5, 2022.

    Multimedia

    What Does Putin Want in Ukraine?

    RAND senior political scientists Samuel Charap and Stephen J. Flanagan discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic goals in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

    May 3, 2022