What might lead to escalation of the war in Ukraine? And how can U.S. and allied policymakers both prepare for—and prevent—such a scenario from occurring?
More certain than the outcome of the war is the need for an extensive post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. It is likely to be the largest post-war rebuilding effort since the one in Europe after World War Two. The United States and its allies and partners have an intense interest in the success of reconstruction.
In the Cold War, West Germany, with robust NATO support, stood guard at the center of the Iron Curtain. Looking ahead, Poland and Ukraine along with NATO will defend Europe's center at the front line. Insights from the West German experience might help them.
This weekly recap focuses on the risk of escalation in Ukraine, the growing threat of a North-Korea-Russia-China partnership, the economics of disaster recovery, and more.
A new RAND Corporation analysis evaluates the potential for further escalation of Putin's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, including the grave prospect of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. A perception that Russian military losses on the battlefield are threatening the security of Putin's regime would provide the most likely trigger for a nuclear attack on Ukrainian territory.
This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.
Machine learning has great potential to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of war but only when paired with human analysts who possess detailed understanding of the context behind a given problem.
Coordinated deep-strike capabilities—air-launched and ground-launched—will be most effective in degrading Russian forces and operations. Using air and ground launchers would force Russian commanders to devote substantial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to attempt to find these systems.
Any attempt by China to use military force to seize Taiwan would be an immense logistical undertaking requiring moving large quantities of troops and materiel across the Taiwan Strait. What then, are Chinese observers learning from the logistical realm of the war in Ukraine?
This weekly recap focuses on the invisible damage of Maui’s wildfires, making the artificial intelligence supply chain safer, how Ukrainian civilians resist Russia, and more.
How can the United States effectively and efficiently deter Russia and Iran without crowding out investments in other military missions, including competition with China in the Indo-Pacific?
Civilian-based resistance in Ukraine began in the first hours of Russia's 2022 invasion. Civilians' actions have potential value in helping ensure victory by regaining territorial integrity and maintaining political sovereignty. And this war offers insight into what civilian contributions in future wars could look like.
The Russians have burned through more of the expected life span of their aircraft more quickly than anticipated. To make up for it, they'll have to procure more aircraft, increase maintenance, reduce operations, or accept a smaller force—or some combination of those.
The U.S. decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine—and the ensuing controversy—are reflective of a broader and long-standing question: What means are moral in war? While much has been made of the dangers posed by unexploded ordnance from these weapons, there are strong arguments for providing them to Ukraine.
Since 2014, militant groups from Russia, Belarus, Chechnya, and elsewhere have established themselves as allies of Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its aligned forces. Though alignment with these groups presents clear benefits in the near term, Kyiv should be cautious since these groups could turn on Ukraine at any time should their interests no longer align.
This weekly recap focuses on supporting Ukrainian refugees, the future of U.S. and allied defense strategy, existential threats posed by artificial intelligence, and more.
This video includes the proceedings from a RAND National Security Research Division event held on July 17, 2023. Panelists discussed the latest developments from NATO, and looked ahead to the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. Guest speakers include former President of the World Bank Group Robert Zoellick, former Ukraine Minister of Finance Natalie Jaresko, and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and Lt. Gen., U.S. Army (Ret.) Douglas Lute.
This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.
Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including those posed by Russia and China. What gaps do U.S. and allied forces have to fill to successfully meet this challenge?
