• Research Brief

    Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

    What might lead to escalation of the war in Ukraine? And how can U.S. and allied policymakers both prepare for—and prevent—such a scenario from occurring?

    Sep 21, 2023

  • Commentary

    Looking Beyond the War: Planning for Ukraine's Reconstruction

    More certain than the outcome of the war is the need for an extensive post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. It is likely to be the largest post-war rebuilding effort since the one in Europe after World War Two. The United States and its allies and partners have an intense interest in the success of reconstruction.

    Sep 18, 2023

Explore Ukraine

  • U.S. M1A2 Abrams tanks prior to a live fire exercise at Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland, February 16, 2023, photo by Staff Sgt. Matthew A. Foster/U.S. Army National Guard


    Poland and Ukraine: Defending Europe's Future

    In the Cold War, West Germany, with robust NATO support, stood guard at the center of the Iron Curtain. Looking ahead, Poland and Ukraine along with NATO will defend Europe's center at the front line. Insights from the West German experience might help them.

    Sep 25, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Escalation in Ukraine, a Trilateral Imperialist Threat, Disaster Recovery: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on the risk of escalation in Ukraine, the growing threat of a North-Korea-Russia-China partnership, the economics of disaster recovery, and more.

    Sep 22, 2023

  • News Release

    News Release

    RAND Analysis Outlines Possible Further Escalation in Ukraine Conflict, Including Potential for Russian Nuclear Attack

    A new RAND Corporation analysis evaluates the potential for further escalation of Putin's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, including the grave prospect of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. A perception that Russian military losses on the battlefield are threatening the security of Putin's regime would provide the most likely trigger for a nuclear attack on Ukrainian territory.

    Sep 21, 2023

  • Report

    Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future

    This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

    Sep 21, 2023

  • U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Curtis Chancey, center, teaches Ukrainian soldiers how to determine grid coordinates during a map reading and land navigation class at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center near Yavoriv, Ukraine, March 5, 2016, photo by Staff Sgt. Adriana M. Diaz-Brown/U.S. Army


    Can Machine Learning Improve Military Decisionmaking?

    Machine learning has great potential to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of war but only when paired with human analysts who possess detailed understanding of the context behind a given problem.

    Sep 19, 2023

  • The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), photo by U.S. Army


    Why Improve Ukraine's Deep-Strike Capability?

    Coordinated deep-strike capabilities—air-launched and ground-launched—will be most effective in degrading Russian forces and operations. Using air and ground launchers would force Russian commanders to devote substantial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to attempt to find these systems.

    Sep 19, 2023

  • Footage released by Russia Ministry of Defense on March 9, 2022 allegedly shows convoy of Russia Armed Forces combat and logistic vehicles in an undisclosed area in Ukraine, photo by EyePress News/Reuters


    China Ponders Russia's Logistical Challenges in the Ukraine War

    Any attempt by China to use military force to seize Taiwan would be an immense logistical undertaking requiring moving large quantities of troops and materiel across the Taiwan Strait. What then, are Chinese observers learning from the logistical realm of the war in Ukraine?

    Aug 28, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    The War in Ukraine, Income Share Agreements, the Tech 'Cold War': RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on why Ukraine isn’t like World War I, an alternative to student loans, the tech “Cold War

    Aug 25, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Maui Wildires, Regulating AI, Ukraine's Civilian Resistance: RAND Weekly Recaps

    This weekly recap focuses on the invisible damage of Maui’s wildfires, making the artificial intelligence supply chain safer, how Ukrainian civilians resist Russia, and more.

    Aug 18, 2023

  • A colorful silhouette of an aircraft is superimposed on maps of Russia and Iran, images by Belterz/Getty Images, Kevin Smart/Getty Images, and KeithBinns/Getty Images


    Deterring Russia and Iran

    How can the United States effectively and efficiently deter Russia and Iran without crowding out investments in other military missions, including competition with China in the Indo-Pacific?

    Aug 17, 2023

  • Local residents make anti-tank obstacles to defend the city after Russia launched a massive military operation against Ukraine, in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, February 27, 2022, photo by Serhii Hudak/Reuters


    Ukrainian Civilians' Contributions to Resisting Russia

    Civilian-based resistance in Ukraine began in the first hours of Russia's 2022 invasion. Civilians' actions have potential value in helping ensure victory by regaining territorial integrity and maintaining political sovereignty. And this war offers insight into what civilian contributions in future wars could look like.

    Aug 15, 2023

  • A Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft flies in international airspace over the Baltic Sea, April 27, 2023, photo by EyePress News/Reuters


    The Uncounted Losses to Russia's Air Force

    The Russians have burned through more of the expected life span of their aircraft more quickly than anticipated. To make up for it, they'll have to procure more aircraft, increase maintenance, reduce operations, or accept a smaller force—or some combination of those.

    Aug 14, 2023

  • A military sapper picks up unexploded parts of a cluster bomb left after Russia's invasion near the village of Motyzhyn, in Kyiv region, Ukraine, April 10, 2022, photo by Stringer/Reuters


    Why Biden Was Justified to Send Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

    The U.S. decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine—and the ensuing controversy—are reflective of a broader and long-standing question: What means are moral in war? While much has been made of the dangers posed by unexploded ordnance from these weapons, there are strong arguments for providing them to Ukraine.

    Aug 14, 2023

  • Service members with the Freedom of Russia Legion at their positions near a front line in Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 21, 2023, photo by Stringer/Reuters


    The Russo-Ukrainian War Has Bolstered Ukraine's Nonstate Alliance Network

    Since 2014, militant groups from Russia, Belarus, Chechnya, and elsewhere have established themselves as allies of Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its aligned forces. Though alignment with these groups presents clear benefits in the near term, Kyiv should be cautious since these groups could turn on Ukraine at any time should their interests no longer align.

    Aug 7, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Ukrainian Refugees, U.S. and Allied Defense Strategy, Threats from AI: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on supporting Ukrainian refugees, the future of U.S. and allied defense strategy, existential threats posed by artificial intelligence, and more.

    Aug 4, 2023

  • Multimedia

    A Better Future for Ukraine and Its Partners

    This video includes the proceedings from a RAND National Security Research Division event held on July 17, 2023. Panelists discussed the latest developments from NATO, and looked ahead to the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. Guest speakers include former President of the World Bank Group Robert Zoellick, former Ukraine Minister of Finance Natalie Jaresko, and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and Lt. Gen., U.S. Army (Ret.) Douglas Lute.

    Aug 2, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, Neurodiversity, Russia's 'Forever War': RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.

    Jul 28, 2023

  • The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group sails in formation with NATO ships during an integrated sailing event as part of Neptune Strike, July 11, 2023, photo by Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Jacob Mattingly/U.S. Department of Defense


    How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

    Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including those posed by Russia and China. What gaps do U.S. and allied forces have to fill to successfully meet this challenge?

    Jul 25, 2023