• Research Brief

    Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

    What might lead to escalation of the war in Ukraine? And how can U.S. and allied policymakers both prepare for—and prevent—such a scenario from occurring?

    Sep 21, 2023

  • Commentary

    Looking Beyond the War: Planning for Ukraine's Reconstruction

    More certain than the outcome of the war is the need for an extensive post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. It is likely to be the largest post-war rebuilding effort since the one in Europe after World War Two. The United States and its allies and partners have an intense interest in the success of reconstruction.

    Sep 18, 2023

Explore Ukraine

  • U.S. army vehicles arrive in the Netherlands as part of a NATO mission to reinforce the eastern flank, in Vlissingen, Netherlands, January 11, 2023, photo by Piroschka van de Wouw/Reuters


    Why the United States Still Needs Ground Forces in Europe

    The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.

    Jul 24, 2023

  • Teacher Aleksandra Artemova teaches Ukrainian refugee children during a school preparation course in Dusseldorf, Germany, March 18, 2022, photo by Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters


    The EU Can't Treat Ukrainian Refugees Like Short-Term Visitors

    Although EU countries, communities, and citizens have been very welcoming to Ukrainian refugees, it is not enough to treat them as short-term visitors, meet their immediate humanitarian needs, and let them wait out the war. By educating and employing them instead, EU countries can enrich their own communities and support Ukraine.

    Jul 24, 2023

  • A Ukrainian serviceman prepares to fire a mortar from his position at the front line near the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, July 13, 2023, photo by Stringer/Reuters


    A Winnable War

    Many commentators have likened the current Russia-Ukraine war to the Western Front of World War I. A better historical precedent to understand the current fighting in Ukraine can be found in the U.S. Army's experience fighting against Nazi forces in the hedgerows of Normandy in France in the summer of 1944.

    Jul 21, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Russia's Frontlines, India's 'Power' Moves, Food Security: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on dysfunction on Russia’s front lines, India’s regional diplomacy, stopping mass shooters who seek fame, and more.

    Jul 21, 2023

  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov visit the Joint Headquarters of the Russian armed forces involved in military operations in Ukraine, in an unknown location in Russia, in this picture released December 17, 2022, photo by Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Kremlin via Reuters


    All Is Not Well on Russian Front Lines

    For now, despite the Kremlin's dysfunctional decisions, Russia's defensive positions in Ukraine are still secure. But for how long? The cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting and the problems endemic to Russia's campaign in Ukraine are likely to worsen.

    Jul 19, 2023

  • A U.S. Army staff sergeant and a Canadian army engineer demonstrate to Ukrainian combat training center engineers how to clear a room after using explosives to breach a door during training at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, near Yavoriv, Ukraine, February 23, 2017, photo by Sgt. Anthony Jones/U.S. Army


    Making Military Aid Work

    Security cooperation and military aid efforts can fail, but they can also exceed expectations and provide strategic benefits. Ukraine appears to be one such success. For a relatively modest investment between 2014 and 2021, the United States has reaped a substantial gain in terms of Ukraine's military capacity and efficacy.

    Jul 17, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    NATO Summit, Russia's Failures in Ukraine, Vietnam Bans 'Barbie': RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on the NATO summit in Vilnius, Russia’s repeated missteps in Ukraine, why America's superintendents are so stressed, and more.

    Jul 14, 2023

  • Ukrainian servicemen fire a Partyzan small multiple rocket launch system toward Russian troops near a front line in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, July 13, 2023, photo by Stringer/Reuters


    Should Ukraine Negotiate with Russia?

    The fundamental drivers of the continuing hostilities in Ukraine could produce a years-long conflict that causes immense human suffering, economic hardship, and international instability. The United States and its allies should begin to try to steer the conflict toward an endgame.

    Jul 13, 2023

  • Ukrainian serviceman stands on top of a Russian tank captured after fighting with Russian troops in the village of Lukyanivka outside Kyiv, March 27, 2022, photo by Marko Djurica/Reuters


    Russian Failures in the Ukraine Conflict as of January 2023

    Why has the Russian invasion of Ukraine stumbled so significantly? Moscow's struggles can be partly attributed to poor planning, logistical issues, and sustainment challenges facing the Russian armed forces.

    Jul 11, 2023

  • A boy waves a Ukrainian flag as an armored vehicle from the Ukrainian army goes to the Bakhmut frontlines, in Sloviansk, Ukraine, June 27, 2023, photo by Celestino Arce/NurPhoto/Reuters


    The War in Ukraine—Whose Quagmire?

    Ukraine faces new perils. Not because of anything happening on the battlefield, but because Western impatience could force Ukraine into the spot it least wants to be in: at the negotiating table with Russia. Or, worse, not at the table where its future may be decided.

    Jul 11, 2023

  • NATO leaders at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 11, 2023, photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Reuters


    NATO's Vilnius Summit Holds the Key for Ukraine's Reconstruction

    Repelling Russia's invasion will be top of mind at the NATO summit in Vilnius. But longer-term security decisions may be even more important to Ukraine's future, after the fighting stops.

    Jul 11, 2023

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Six Lessons from Ukraine for Japanese Defense Planners

    Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. Researcher Jeffrey Hornung considers the war in Ukraine from the perspective of a Japanese decisionmaker.

    Jun 27, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Teacher Well-Being, Russian PMCs, AI Conspiracy Theories: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on how America's teachers are doing, the proliferation of Russian private military companies, preparing for conspiracy theories about artificial intelligence, and more.

    Jun 23, 2023

  • Japanese soldiers stand at attention for an honors ceremony in Tokyo, Japan, October 3, 2013, photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo/U.S. Department of Defense


    Six Different Ways: Ukraine Lessons for Japanese Defense Planners

    Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. But Japanese officials are silent on whether they are preparing for a short conflict or a long one. This matters because, as the Ukrainian war demonstrates, a protracted struggle could require different plans from the ones Japan is possibly making.

    Jun 23, 2023

  • Volunteers work to reconstruct a school damaged by at least three bombs near Kyiv, Ukraine, May 17, 2023, photo by Dominika Zarzycka/Reuters


    How to Reform and Reconstruct Ukraine After the War

    Hostilities in Ukraine are ongoing, but it is not too early to consider post-war reconstruction. Indeed, the United States and Europe have already begun planning what will probably be the most ambitious post-war rebuilding effort in modern history.

    Jun 21, 2023

  • Members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participate in a military operation in Donetsk, Ukraine, June 9, 2023, photo by Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect


    How Not to Help Ukraine

    Good strategy involves clearly defining your objectives (ends), developing practical methods to accomplish them (ways), and then allocating sufficient resources (means) to turn these objectives and methods into reality. The debate over congressional support for Ukraine aid largely revolves around means. But what of the other two legs of the strategic triad?

    Jun 17, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap


    Reconstructing Ukraine, Wildfires, Telehealth: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on reconstructing Ukraine, what to do about wildfires, virtual mental health care services, and more.

    Jun 16, 2023

  • News Release

    News Release

    Successful Reconstruction of Ukraine Will Depend on Early Action, Bipartisan U.S. Effort, and U.S.-Europe Partnership

    Durable Ukrainian reconstruction will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-Europe partnership and the establishment of effective post-war security arrangements.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • Call with the Experts: The North Korean Nuclear Threat


    RAND Experts Discuss the Reconstruction of Ukraine

    RAND experts discuss the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine. This call was recorded on June 14, 2023.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • A Ukrainian flag near the front line in the newly liberated village Neskuchne in Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 13, 2023, photo by Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters


    Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a Freer, More Prosperous, and Secure Future

    Ukraine's reconstruction may be the largest rebuilding effort in modern history, and it's not too early to start planning. Recovery will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-European partnership and the establishment of durable post-war security arrangements.

    Jun 14, 2023