What might lead to escalation of the war in Ukraine? And how can U.S. and allied policymakers both prepare for—and prevent—such a scenario from occurring?
More certain than the outcome of the war is the need for an extensive post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. It is likely to be the largest post-war rebuilding effort since the one in Europe after World War Two. The United States and its allies and partners have an intense interest in the success of reconstruction.
The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.
Although EU countries, communities, and citizens have been very welcoming to Ukrainian refugees, it is not enough to treat them as short-term visitors, meet their immediate humanitarian needs, and let them wait out the war. By educating and employing them instead, EU countries can enrich their own communities and support Ukraine.
Many commentators have likened the current Russia-Ukraine war to the Western Front of World War I. A better historical precedent to understand the current fighting in Ukraine can be found in the U.S. Army's experience fighting against Nazi forces in the hedgerows of Normandy in France in the summer of 1944.
For now, despite the Kremlin's dysfunctional decisions, Russia's defensive positions in Ukraine are still secure. But for how long? The cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting and the problems endemic to Russia's campaign in Ukraine are likely to worsen.
Security cooperation and military aid efforts can fail, but they can also exceed expectations and provide strategic benefits. Ukraine appears to be one such success. For a relatively modest investment between 2014 and 2021, the United States has reaped a substantial gain in terms of Ukraine's military capacity and efficacy.
This weekly recap focuses on the NATO summit in Vilnius, Russia’s repeated missteps in Ukraine, why America's superintendents are so stressed, and more.
The fundamental drivers of the continuing hostilities in Ukraine could produce a years-long conflict that causes immense human suffering, economic hardship, and international instability. The United States and its allies should begin to try to steer the conflict toward an endgame.
Why has the Russian invasion of Ukraine stumbled so significantly? Moscow's struggles can be partly attributed to poor planning, logistical issues, and sustainment challenges facing the Russian armed forces.
Ukraine faces new perils. Not because of anything happening on the battlefield, but because Western impatience could force Ukraine into the spot it least wants to be in: at the negotiating table with Russia. Or, worse, not at the table where its future may be decided.
Repelling Russia's invasion will be top of mind at the NATO summit in Vilnius. But longer-term security decisions may be even more important to Ukraine's future, after the fighting stops.
Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. Researcher Jeffrey Hornung considers the war in Ukraine from the perspective of a Japanese decisionmaker.
This weekly recap focuses on how America's teachers are doing, the proliferation of Russian private military companies, preparing for conspiracy theories about artificial intelligence, and more.
Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. But Japanese officials are silent on whether they are preparing for a short conflict or a long one. This matters because, as the Ukrainian war demonstrates, a protracted struggle could require different plans from the ones Japan is possibly making.
Hostilities in Ukraine are ongoing, but it is not too early to consider post-war reconstruction. Indeed, the United States and Europe have already begun planning what will probably be the most ambitious post-war rebuilding effort in modern history.
Good strategy involves clearly defining your objectives (ends), developing practical methods to accomplish them (ways), and then allocating sufficient resources (means) to turn these objectives and methods into reality. The debate over congressional support for Ukraine aid largely revolves around means. But what of the other two legs of the strategic triad?
Durable Ukrainian reconstruction will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-Europe partnership and the establishment of effective post-war security arrangements.
Ukraine's reconstruction may be the largest rebuilding effort in modern history, and it's not too early to start planning. Recovery will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-European partnership and the establishment of durable post-war security arrangements.
