Ukraine

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  • Essay

    Postwar Ukraine: Planning for a Successful and Secure Recovery

    To rebuild successfully, Ukraine will need to come out of the war on a new trajectory. It already has an outline of what recovery will look like. The plan looks beyond the immediate damages and envisions more than $750 billion in economic support and projects that would raise a new Ukraine from the destruction.

    Jan 5, 2024

  • Q&A

    Two Years After Russia Invaded Ukraine: Q&A with RAND Experts

    RAND experts discuss the state of the conflict in Ukraine and its prospects, the war's global implications, possible outcomes and solutions, and what the West and the rest of the world might be doing now and once hostilities end.

    Feb 19, 2024

Explore Ukraine

  • Japanese soldiers stand at attention for an honors ceremony in Tokyo, Japan, October 3, 2013, photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo/U.S. Department of Defense

    Commentary

    Six Different Ways: Ukraine Lessons for Japanese Defense Planners

    Japanese leaders have already begun internalizing key lessons from Ukraine. But Japanese officials are silent on whether they are preparing for a short conflict or a long one. This matters because, as the Ukrainian war demonstrates, a protracted struggle could require different plans from the ones Japan is possibly making.

    Jun 23, 2023

  • Volunteers work to reconstruct a school damaged by at least three bombs near Kyiv, Ukraine, May 17, 2023, photo by Dominika Zarzycka/Reuters

    Commentary

    How to Reform and Reconstruct Ukraine After the War

    Hostilities in Ukraine are ongoing, but it is not too early to consider post-war reconstruction. Indeed, the United States and Europe have already begun planning what will probably be the most ambitious post-war rebuilding effort in modern history.

    Jun 21, 2023

  • Members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participate in a military operation in Donetsk, Ukraine, June 9, 2023, photo by Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect

    Commentary

    How Not to Help Ukraine

    Good strategy involves clearly defining your objectives (ends), developing practical methods to accomplish them (ways), and then allocating sufficient resources (means) to turn these objectives and methods into reality. The debate over congressional support for Ukraine aid largely revolves around means. But what of the other two legs of the strategic triad?

    Jun 17, 2023

  • Multimedia

    RAND Experts Discuss the Reconstruction of Ukraine

    RAND experts discuss the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine. This call was recorded on June 14, 2023.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • News Release

    News Release

    Successful Reconstruction of Ukraine Will Depend on Early Action, Bipartisan U.S. Effort, and U.S.-Europe Partnership

    Durable Ukrainian reconstruction will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-Europe partnership and the establishment of effective post-war security arrangements.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • A Ukrainian flag near the front line in the newly liberated village Neskuchne in Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 13, 2023, photo by Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters

    Report

    Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a Freer, More Prosperous, and Secure Future

    Ukraine's reconstruction may be the largest rebuilding effort in modern history, and it's not too early to start planning. Recovery will require an end to the fighting, but ultimate success hinges on a U.S.-European partnership and the establishment of durable post-war security arrangements.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • Wagner fighters wave flags of Russia and Wagner group on top of a building in an unidentified location in Ukraine in this still image obtained from a video released on May 20, 2023, photo by press service of Concord/Handout via Reuters

    Commentary

    Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs

    Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • Members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed near Zaporizhia, Ukraine, June 14, 2023, photo by Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect

    Commentary

    How Might Ukraine's Counteroffensive End, and What Comes After?

    Ukraine may soon launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces entrenched in eastern and southern Ukraine. We consider three ways this counteroffensive might end and their implications for the future.

    Jun 14, 2023

  • A woman hugs her boyfriend as they say good-bye prior to his deployment, at the train station in Lviv, Ukraine, March 9, 2022, photo by Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters

    Journal Article

    An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

    While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.

    Jun 6, 2023

  • An F-16 Fighting Falcon flies during a mission at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, February 14, 2019, photo by Staff Sgt. John Raven/U.S. Air Force

    Commentary

    What Is the Long-Term Strategy for Ukraine's Air Force?

    It is encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to improve its combat capabilities. Western policymakers might begin thinking now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the future, especially if the Russian threat remains acute.

    Jun 6, 2023

  • Russian conscripts take part in a ceremony marking their departure for garrisons, at the Trinity Cathedral in Saint Petersburg, Russia, May 23, 2023, photo by Anton Vaganov/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath

    Russia's looming troop-retention and veteran-treatment problems are already visible on the horizon, even though they have been delayed by policy. By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon crash over its own country.

    Jun 1, 2023

  • Three U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons fly over the Pacific Ocean, February 10, 2022, photo by Tech. Sgt. Matthew Lotz/U.S. Air Force

    Commentary

    What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine

    After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

    May 31, 2023

  • An F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter aircraft has its landing gear extended to land at the U.S. military airfield at Spangdahlem, Germany, May 17, 2023, photo by Harald Tittel/dpa via Reuters Connect

    Commentary

    Military Assistance to Ukraine Is a Rare Success

    Recently, the United States reversed its long-standing opposition to sending Ukraine F-16 advanced aircraft to aid its fight against Russia. The policy reversal is a smart call. Once the aircraft are delivered and training is complete the jets will help Ukraine defend its territory more efficiently, and might even help end the war.

    May 26, 2023

  • F-16 fighters from Poland on air policing mission along NATO allied air space, March 24, 2022, photo by EyePress News/Reuters

    Commentary

    F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force

    F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.

    May 25, 2023

  • A service member of pro-Russian troops in uniform without insignia at the weapons depot near Marinka, Donetsk Region, Ukraine, March 22, 2022, photo by Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

    Multimedia

    Ukraine Is Running Out of Ammo. The West Doesn't Have Enough

    Bradley Martin, director of the RAND National Security Supply Chain Institute, is among the experts interviewed in a Semafor documentary about the challenge of supplying Ukraine with ammunition.

    May 23, 2023

  • A B-2 Spirit bomber and F-22 Raptors fly near Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, during an interoperability training mission Jan. 15, 2019, photo by Master Sgt. Russ Scalf/U.S. Air Force

    Commentary

    What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

    The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

    May 22, 2023

  • French family outside their home destroyed by shelling at La Bassee in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, France, 1918, photo by Dave Bagnall Collection/Alamy Stock Photo

    Q&A

    Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation

    Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.

    May 9, 2023

  • A still image taken from video shows a flying object approaching the dome of the Kremlin Senate building in Moscow, Russia, May 2, 2023, photo by Ostorozhno Novosti

    Commentary

    What the Drone Strikes on the Kremlin Reveal About the War in Ukraine

    False flag, special op, or fizzled attack—it may not be possible to get to the bottom of who launched drones at the Kremlin and why any time soon. But the incident and reactions it has elicited from the war's major players reveal just how important weaponized, long-range drones have become in this conflict.

    May 4, 2023

  • Two U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft fly over Iraq and Syria, July 17, 2021, pTwo U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft fly over Iraq and Syria, July 17, 2021

    Commentary

    Why Does Ukraine Want Western Jets?

    Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has requested Western fighter jets. Why does it want them? Of what use could they be? And what are some of their limitations?

    May 3, 2023

  • Volunteers remove debris from the House of a Culture in the village of Ivanivka, which was heavily damaged during Russia's attack, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, September 3, 2022, photo by Vladislav Musienko/Reuters

    Report

    Weighing Options for Ukraine's Recovery

    In making decisions about reconstruction, the Ukrainian people and their government will face trade-offs regarding timelines, prioritization of efforts, leadership, and funding. Understanding these trade-offs can improve their decisions and contribute to the transparency and integrity of the process.

    May 2, 2023