Many prominent Western news outlets and policymakers have concluded that Ukraine is winning the information war. Are Ukraine's information campaigns, in fact, more persuasive than Russia's? If so, why?
From the 1990s to the 2022 invasion, Russia's manipulation of Ukraine was based on a post-Soviet Russian identity that was hostile to the European project. Meanwhile, Ukraine formed a national identity that was at odds with Russia's, and it grew stronger and more resistant to Russian influence.
U.S. Air Force leaders and top national security experts gathered at the seventh annual West Coast Aerospace Forum in December 2022. This year's event focused on lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and how those experiences will apply to security challenges in the Pacific theater and beyond. These videos include the proceedings from the event's five sessions.
The United States has a strong interest in avoiding a long war in Ukraine. Although Washington cannot alone determine the war's duration, it can take steps to make an eventual negotiated peace more likely.
There are predictions aplenty that Russia's war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these contingencies should be ruled out.
This weekly recap focuses on how the West might respond in the case of a limited Russian attack on NATO, what China's Arctic ambitions mean to the United States, how inflation affects middle-class households, and more.
The United States might look at its support of Ukraine as a potential model for future defense strategy. It would require a substantial expansion of the defense industrial base, but it might offer a plausible way to keep American objectives and resources in line without sacrificing too much in either.
Perceptions that the United States has “Ukraine fatigue” may be more myth than reality. It could be years before any declines in the American public's support for Ukraine actually result in a change of policy.
The Ukraine war has created a unique set of circumstances that make a limited Russian attack against a NATO target plausible. If such an attack were to occur, how might the United States and NATO respond?
It would be impossible to capture all the important work that RAND does in a year. But RAND president and CEO Jason Matheny has compiled ten times he was inspired by RAND's efforts to bring insight to some of the biggest policy stories of 2022.
Analysis, informed by interactions with Russians, offers Western leaders a window into Russia. Blacklists hinder this process. With the stakes so high, much depends on experts' success in getting their analysis right.
Even as the Russian military continues to struggle in Ukraine, Air Force leaders and top national security experts at the 2022 West Coast Aerospace Forum warned not to expect similar outcomes in a potential conflict with China. The 7th annual event focused on applying lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
When fighting subsides, Ukraine may undergo reconstruction on the scale of the post–World War II Marshall Plan. Debate is ramping up about core issues, such as the scope of reconstruction, sources of funding, and reforms needed for success. Ukraine and the West might begin now to forge consensus on these issues.
A new decision-analysis approach is necessary to capture the use of disinformation in the context of hybrid warfare. Multiple tools must be integrated to help generate a robust policy response to modern hybrid threats.